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All Journal International Journal of Evaluation and Research in Education (IJERE) CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi E-Dimas: Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Ilmiah Soulmath : Jurnal Edukasi Pendidikan Matematika Jurnal Manajemen Aset Infrastruktur dan Fasilitas WAKTU: Jurnal Teknik UNIPA Martabe : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat J-ADIMAS (Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat) JPPIPA (Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA) Jurnal Abdi: Media Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) Community Empowerment MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Abdimas Altruis: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat dan aplikasi Teknologi Jurnal Media Publikasi Terapan Transportasi
Dian Savitri
Departemen Matematika, Universitas Negeri Surabaya, Surabaya.
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Library & Information Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Prediksi Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka di Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Numerik Ekstrapolasi Berbasis Python Pricilla Sisi Austin Soko; Rudh Renata; Akhmad Ilhamzah; Rahmawati Erma Standsyah; Dian Savitri
Jurnal Ilmiah Soulmath : Jurnal Edukasi Pendidikan Matematika Vol 14 No 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Dr. Soetomo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25139/smj.v14i1.11547

Abstract

Abstract The Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) is a strategic indicator reflecting labor market conditions and the effectiveness of national economic development policies. The development of Indonesia’s OUR during the 2015-2023 period exhibits a fluctuating pattern, influenced by structural economic dynamics and external shocks, thereby necessitating a predictive approach to support medium-term policy planning. This study aims to analyze the trend of Indonesia’s OUR, project its development through 2029 using a numerical approach, and assess the role of numerical methods as policy-support tools aligned with national development directions. The method employed is numerical extrapolation Lagrange polynomials using time-series OUR data. The results indicate that utilizing the entire historical dataset produces unstable and unrealistic projections due to the emergence of the Runge phenomenon. In contrast, restricting the model to more recent data yields stable and economically plausible projections. The projected OUR for the 2025-2029 period lies within the range of approximately ±4.46% to ±4.81%, reflecting a post-pandemic downward trend and remaining consistent with recent data patterns. These findings demonstrate that numerical approaches can provide relevant quantitative insights into the future trajectory of unemployment and have the potential to function as supportive instruments in labor policy formulation, provided they are applied cautiously and not used as the sole basis for decision-making. Keywords: Unemployment Rate; Extrapolation; Prediction; Python; Analysis.
Dynamic Analysis of Three-Species System with Fear Effect on Prey and Allee Effect on Top Predator Dana Eky Novya; Dian Savitri
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 11, No 2 (2026): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v11i2.45901

Abstract

Fear-induced behavioral responses and low-density reproductive limitations can affect the stability and persistence of interacting populations. This study investigates a three-species system consisting of prey, middle predator, and top predator, incorporating a fear effect on prey growth and an Allee effect on top predator reproduction. The existence and local stability of biologically feasible equilibria are analyzed using the Jacobian matrix and RouthHurwitz criterion. Numerical continuation with MATCONT is employed to identify bifurcations associated with ecological and predation parameters, while numerical simulations are performed using the adaptive fourthfifth-order RungeKutta method. For the selected parameter set, two positive coexistence equilibria are obtained, with the first unstable and the second locally asymptotically stable. The continuation analysis reveals limit-point bifurcations for both the Allee-effect and fear-effect parameters. Further analysis shows that variation in the middle-predator predation rate m1 produces two limit-point bifurcations, whereas variation in the top-predator predation rate m2 generates one limit point and a subcritical Hopf bifurcation. The latter indicates the emergence of an unstable periodic orbit near m2 = 2.232969. Numerical simulations confirm convergence toward the stable coexistence equilibrium with damped oscillatory transients. These results demonstrate that fear, Allee effects, and predation rates can alter the number and stability of coexistence equilibria and induce both equilibrium and oscillatory transitions in the three-species system.
Co-Authors Abadi Abadi Abadi Abadi Aiza Alya Ajeng Pramesti Putri Akhmad Ilhamzah Alicia Dhea Amara Aqiila Ollyana Savitri Bagas Saputra Bagas Saputra Bertha Yonata Budi P. Prawoto Budi Priyo Prawoto BUDI RAHADJENG Chih-Hsiung Ku Dana Eky Novya Davina Alma Fitri Dedan Jagadpramudita Defi Ayunda Difitri Amalia Dina Kartika Maharani Dina Kartika Maharani Dini Kinati Fardah Donna Kurniasih Dwi Kristiatuti Suwardiah Elok Suidibyo Erman Erman Fadhilatun Ni’mah Farida Chasanah Guntur Trimulyono Hasan S. Panigoro Husni Mubarok Ilo Isaloka Jakfar, Muhammad Kevin Alifviansyah Kusumawati Dwiningsih Lydia Rohmawati M Niko Axsella Ibrahim Manuharawati Maya Dany Puspitasari Muhammad Danu Erlangga Muhammad Thariq Firmansyah Nadi Suprapto Nugrahani primary putri Nur Laili Af'idah Ovi Prina Gastriani Pricilla Sisi Austin Soko Qurrotul Aini Raden Sulaiman Rahma Nurisnaini Rahmawati Erma Standsyah Rinie Pratiwi Puspitawati Riska Wahyu Romadhonia Rudh Renata Rudianto Artiono Rudianto Artiono Ruli Rahmawati Ruli Rahmawati Salsabil Faridah Saputri Kusbianti Sela Tri Indah Sari Sukarmin Sukarmin Toni Phibeta Wahyu Budi Sabtiawan Wiediartini Wiediartini