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Abdi Dharma
Universitas Andalas
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Journal : Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer

 1 
Analisis Tren dan Perkiraan Pandemi COVID-19 di Indonesia Menggunakan Peramalan Metode Prophet :Sebelum dan Sesudah Aturan New Normal Harahap, Mawaddah; Andika, Ahmad Zaki; Husein, Amir Mahmud; Dharma, Abdi
Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer Vol 9 No 1: Februari 2022
Publisher : Fakultas Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25126/jtiik.2022914060

Abstract

Dalam menanggulangi penyebaran pandemi Covid-19 di Indonesia, pemerintah telah menetapkan PSBB dan aturan Normal Baru namun laju penyebaran pandemi terus meningkat dari waktu ke waktu. Selain itu, ketidakpastian akan berakhirnya pandemi ini berdampak pada perubahan kondisi sosial. Makalah ini bertujuan untuk memfasilitasi perbandingan antara PSBB dan regulasi New Normal tentang perkembangan jumlah kasus Covid-19 di Indonesia dengan memetakan jumlah kumulatif kasus (kasus aktif, sembuh, dikonfirmasi dan meninggal). Metode Prophet digunakan untuk memprediksi kasus kematian dan terkonfirmasi dalam 30 hari ke depan. Analisis data visual dengan pendekatan Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) disajikan untuk memberikan pemahaman tentang perkembangan penyebaran pandemi di Indonesia. Pengujian kerangka analisis dilakukan dengan eksperimen untuk mengukur tingkat ketepatan prediksi metode Prophet dengan membagi kumpulan data historis periode 23 Maret 2020 - 31 Juli 2020, sedangkan data bulan terakhir dari kumpulan data periode 01 Agustus 2020 hingga 5 September 2020 digunakan sebagai target prediksi. Berdasarkan hasil pengujian metode Prophet memprediksi Indonesia akan mengalami peningkatan jumlah kasus terkonfirmasi sekitar 238.322 kasus dan kematian sekitar 9.609 hingga akhir September dengan tingkat kesalahan relatif dari estimasi yang dievaluasi dengan MAPE sekitar 23,9%. dan MAE sekitar 73,12 MAE. Hasil analisis visual penyebaran suatu pandemi juga disajikan dengan harapan dapat bermanfaat sebagai wawasan perkembangan jumlah kasus pandemi di Indonesia. Abstract In countering the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia, the government has set PSBB and New Normal rules but the rate of spread of the pandemic continues to increase from time to time. In addition, the uncertainty about the end of this pandemic has resulted in changing social conditions. This paper aims to facilitate a comparison between the PSBB and New Normal regulations on the development of the number of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia by mapping the cumulative number of cases (active, cured, confirmed and death cases). The Prophet method is used to predict confirmed cases and deaths within the next 30 days. Visual data analysis using the Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) approach is presented to provide an understanding of the development of the pandemic spread in Indonesia. The testing analysis framework was carried out by experiments to measure the level of prediction accuracy of the prophet method by dividing the historical data set for the period 23 March 2020 - 31 July 2020, while the last month data from the data set for the period 01 August 2020 to 5 September 2020 were used as prediction targets. Based on the results of the Prophet method testing it is estimated that Indonesia will experience an increase in the number of confirmed cases around 238,322 and cases of death around 9,609 until the end of September with the relative error rate of estimates evaluated with MAPE around 23.9% and MAE around 73.12 MAE. The results of a visual analysis of the spread of a pandemic are also presented in the hope that they will be useful as an insight into the development of the number of pandemic cases in Indonesia.
Co-Authors - Afrizal Admin Alief Admin Alif Admin Alif Afriyanti Azhar Alif, Admin Amir Mahmud Husein, Amir Mahmud Andika, Ahmad Zaki Andrian Anggela Marta Tasman Arif Juliari Kusnanda Armaini - Baharuddin Shaleh Barus, Samuelta Bayu Afnovandra Perdana Candra, Windy Chandra, Suwito Christnatalis Crispin, Andrian Reinaldo Dedi Nofiandi Delima Sitanggang, Delima Dicky DS, Jumri Habbeyb Edbert, Edbert Edison Munaf Edison Munaf Elida Mardiah Eri Sulyanti Eti Farda Husin Eti Farda Husin Hafil Abbas HAFIL ABBAS Harvianti, Yuniar Hazli Nurdin Heyneker, Daniel Hulu, Victor Trismanjaya Husni Mukhtar I PUTU KOMPIANG I. P. Kompiang Indah Indah Indrawati - Indrawati Indrawati IRSAN RYANTO Jabang Nurdin Jamsari Jamsari Jefika, Meliy Kamble, Pratik Bibhisan Kosasi, Hendrick Lazuardya , Kevin Lee Wah Lim MARBUN, ADVENT TORAS Mardi Turnip, Mardi MARIA ENDO MAHATA Marniati Salim Mawaddah Harahap, Mawaddah Melona Siska Musifa, Eva Nasril Nasir Nasril Nasir Nasril Nasir Nasril Nasir Nasril Nasir Nurhamidah Oktaf Rina Oktoriza, Ghifarizka Pasaribu, Beriman Periadnadi - Periadnadi Periadnadi Prayogi, Gali PULUNGAN, JURMIDA PURBA, JOICE ANGELINA Rahmadani Wulandari Rahmatika Yani Rahmiana Zein Randi, Albert Refilda Refilda Riska Hernandi Saragi, Yosua Morales Sekatresna, Widiyanti Shaleh, Baharuddin Sirbu, Loredana Ioana Siti Aisyah Siti Hajjir, Siti Sulyanti, Eri Sulyanti, Eri Sumaryati Syukur Suryani Suryani Syafriza Yanti Syafrizayanti, Syafrizayanti Syafrizayanti, Syafrizayanti Syafrizayanti, Syafrizayanti Syukri Arief Talib, Ramanisa Muliani Tania, Alinda Tarigan, Julio Putra Toyohide Takeuchi TRIMURTI HABAZAR Turnip, Josua Presen Valentino, Bue Vanness, Jeff Veron, Veron Wahida Nia Elfiza Warni, Mega Waruwu, Jefrin Widiyanti Sekatresna Wijaya, Davin Wijaya, Eko Bambang Wijaya, Jeremy Wijaya, Vincent William Wizna (Wizna) Wulandari, Rahmadani Yetria Rilda Yose Rizal Yoserizal Yoserizal Yunazar Manjang Yunazar Manjang Yunazar Manjang Zulkarnain Chaidir