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All Journal MEDIA KONSERVASI Jurnal Manajemen dan Agribisnis SOCA: Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian JURNAL SOSIAL EKONOMI PETERNAKAN Animal Agricultural Journal Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian Value Added : Majalah Ekonomi dan Bisnis Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia (Journal of Indonesian Agribusiness) Jurnal Peternakan Indonesia Journal of Consumer Science AGRARIS: Journal of Agribusiness and Rural Development Research Agro Ekonomi Jurnal Ilmiah Econosains Mimbar Agribisnis: Jurnal Pemikiran Masyarakat Ilmiah Berwawasan Agribisnis AGROLAND: The Agricultural Sciences Journal Journal of Consumer Sciences Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA (JPPIPA) BISE: Jurnal Pendidikan Bisnis dan Ekonomi JEPA (Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis) Dinamisia: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Teknik Pertanian Lampung (Journal of Agricultural Engineering) Agrisocionomics: Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Kesatuan Jurnal Litbang Provinsi Jawa Tengah Jurnal Pelayanan dan Pengabdian Masyarakat Indonesia Jurnal Ilmiah Membangun Desa dan Pertanian Warta LPM AGRIC Agroland: Jurnal Ilmu-ilmu Pertanian
Titik Ekowati
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Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Materials Science & Nanotechnology Physics Public Health Social Sciences Veterinary Other

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Journal : AGRIC

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FORECASTING PERIODIC SERIES TO REDUCE THE BULLWHIP EFFECT IN SUPPLY CHAIN SYSTEMS USING MOVING AVERAGE AND EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING Alivia Fazricha Muzamil Putri; Nurfadillah, Suryani; Ekowati, Titik
Agric Vol. 37 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : Fakultas Pertanian dan Bisnis, Universitas Kristen Satya Wacana

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24246/agric.2025.v37.i1.p15-30

Abstract

Demand forecasting is one of the key components in supply chain management, particularly in the food and beverage industry, which has dynamic and fluctuating demand levels. This study aimed to analyze the occurrence of the bullwhip effect in the production of Parijoto (Medinilla speciosa) syrup of CV Seleksi Alam Muria. and to analyze the best forecasting method to minimize the bullwhip effect. The benefits of this research were to serve as a reference for development efforts aimed at reducing the bullwhip effect in production, thereby optimizing the supply chain in a company. The forecasting methods used were Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing. Minitab Software assisted with the forecasting calculations in this study. The study results showed that the initial bullwhip effect value (1.043) was higher than the parameter value (1.005), indicating the occurrence of the bullwhip effect in the production of Parijoto syrup. Furthermore, this study also found that the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values for the Moving Average method were lower compared to the Exponential Smoothing method. The forecasting result using the Moving Average method shows that the bullwhip effect value is significantly lower if it follows the recommended values derived from this forecasting method. Applying the Moving Average method indirectly minimizes the risk of amplification or overproduction.
STUDY ON FOOD SECURITY AMONG FARM HOUSEHOLDS PARTICIPATING IN THE SUSTAINABLE FOOD YARD (SFY) PROGRAM IN SEMARANG CITY Nugraha, Fadhil Adi; Ekowati, Titik; Sumarsono; Gayatri, Siwi
Agric Vol. 35 No. 2 (2023)
Publisher : Fakultas Pertanian dan Bisnis, Universitas Kristen Satya Wacana

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24246/agric.2023.v35.i2.p237-250

Abstract

Food security in Indonesia can realized when the population’s food needs are met. One of the efforts to increase food security carried out by the Food Security Agency under the Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture is implementing the Sustainable Food Yard (SFY) program or Pekarangan Pangan Lestari (P2L) in Indonesia. The SFY program utilizes yards, idle land, or empty land for agricultural activities. Semarang City includes the regions that have received the SFY program since 2020. This research aims to determine the status of food security and the role of the SFY program on the food security of farm households participating in the SFY program in Semarang City—the research conduct using a survey method on 130 farm household samples. The data collection technique is in the form of interviews using a 24-hour food recall questionnaire. The data obtained was then processed using cross-tabulation analysis between energy sufficiency percentage and food expenditure shared with the Microsoft Excel application to determine the food security status of farm households. The role of the SFY program on the food security of participating farm households was analyzed descriptively. The research results show that the distribution of food security status of farm households participating in the SFY program in Semarang City is 88.46 percent food secure, 3.08 percent vulnerable, and 8.46 percent questionable. The role of the SFY program in the food security of farm households is not very significant in increasing energy consumption and reducing household food expenditure.
Co-Authors - Respikasari - Respikasari, - Afif Setyadi AGUS PRIYANTO Agus Setiadi Alivia Fazricha Muzamil Putri Anita Proborini Annisa Maulina Wardhani Aryanti, Wulan Ayuningtyas, Rizqi Ragil Baharsyah, Rifky Bambang Mulyanto S. Bambang Mulyanto Setiawan Bambang Mulyatno Setiawan Bambang Setiawan Debby Diandra Dhian Saraswati Diah Intan Kusumo Dewi Diyah Tri Lestari Djoko Sumarjono Dyah Mardiningsih Dyah Prastiwi, Wahyu Edy Prasetyo Eka Triyana Fariastuti, Mefi Fariastuti Fathiya, Kansha Fatmah, Nur Maulinda Forita Dyah Arianti, Forita Dyah Gadis Midori Ernanda Pudjiono Hery Setiawan, Hery Hery Setiyawan Hillary, Janne Ipandi Janne Hillary Ken Ratri Khofiatun Nida Komalawati Kurnia, Septy Alif Kusuma, Alvian Prabandy Lea Miftahuddin Manurung, Putri Beata Marpaung, Desi Wulandari Migie Handayani Muhammad Ghozi Al Ghifari Mukson Mukson Mukson Naufal Fadhil Heriawan Nida, Khofiatun Noki Rachmat Fadli Nonot Hernowo Nugraha, Fadhil Adi Nurfadillah, Suryani Nurita Elviyanti Ningsih Nzamurambaho, Felicien Oktafiani, Vika Tri Purnomo, Brillianti Sekar Ayu Putra, Farhan Akmala Retno Widjajanti Roessali, Wiludjeng Rohmaniyah, Nila Nur Santy Paulla Dewi Satriyo Adhy Selawati, Dita Siswanto Imam Santoso Siwi Gayatri Sudiyono Marzuki Sumarsono Sumarsono Sumarsono Suryani Nurfadillah Syahrindra, Affan Veithzal Rivai Zainal Viancca, Ucha Svetlulli Virginaura, Fionni Athaya Wahyu Dyah Prastiwi WIDOWATI widowati widowati Wiwik Lestari Wulan Sumekar Yunita, Ema