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All Journal Jurnal Penyuluhan JEJAK Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia (Journal of Indonesian Agribusiness) Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian, Sumberdaya dan Lingkungan Mimbar Agribisnis: Jurnal Pemikiran Masyarakat Ilmiah Berwawasan Agribisnis Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA (JPPIPA) EKONOMIS : Journal of Economics and Business Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Jurnal Penelitian Kelapa Sawit Agrisocionomics: Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian Jurnal Kebijakan Perikanan Indonesia Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Kelautan dan Perikanan Jurnal Kebijakan Sosial Ekonomi Kelautan dan Perikanan Jambura Agribusiness Journal Jurnal Bisnis Tani Journal of Integrated Agribusiness Jurnal Ecogen Indonesian Journal of Agricultural, Resource and Environmental Economics Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Policy Brief Pertanian, Kelautan, dan Biosains Tropika Jurnal Pengabdian Bakti Akademisi International Journal of Oil Palm
novindra .
Department Of Resource And Environmental Economics, Faculty Of Economics And Management, IPB University, Indonesia
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Physics Social Sciences

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Determinan Ekspansi Pasar Mentega Kakao Indonesia di ASEAN+6: Pendekatan SCP dan Efek Perdagangan Berdasarkan Market Overspace dan Overtime Daffa Ibra Danendra; Ni Ketut Dela Yanti; Novindra Novindra
Journal of Integrated Agribusiness Vol 8 No 1 (2026): Journal of Integrated Agribusiness
Publisher : Jurusan Agribisnis, Fakultas Pertanian, Perikanan dan Kelautan Universitas Bangka Belitung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33019/jia.v8i1.7271

Abstract

Sejak awal 2000-an, perdagangan bebas di Asia meningkat pesat seiring dengan meluasnya perjanjian perdagangan regional (RTA) yang mendorong integrasi ekonomi kawasan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi struktur, perilaku, dan kinerja industri mentega kakao Indonesia di pasar ASEAN+6, serta mengidentifikasi determinan utama yang memengaruhi perdagangan komoditas ini. Metode yang digunakan mencakup analisis deskriptif kualitatif dengan pendekatan Structure–Conduct–Performance (SCP), pengukuran indeks Intra-Industry Trade (IIT), serta estimasi gravity model menggunakan regresi data panel Pooled OLS dan Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) dengan time effect. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa pasar mentega kakao Indonesia bersifat oligopoli dengan CR4 dan MES di atas 60%. Nilai IIT rata-rata hanya 9,6, menandakan integrasi lemah. Tiga variabel dummy FTA, PDB mitra dagang, nilai tukar, serta variabel geospasial seperti landlocked dan border berpengaruh signifikan terhadap arus perdagangan. Efek perdagangan menunjukkan adanya trade creation pasca-implementasi FTA. Model time effect PPML mengonfirmasi bahwa pasar ekspor mentega kakao Indonesia mengalami perluasan jangka panjang (market overspace dan overtime), memperkuat peran FTA dalam membentuk perdagangan dua arah yang lebih terintegrasi dan berkelanjutan di kawasan ASEAN+6.
Dampak Kebijakan Hilirisasi CPO pada Industri Hilir Margarin terhadap Penerimaan Devisa Ekspor Indonesia Asifa Asifa; Nia Kurniawati Hidayat; Novindra Novindra
Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business Vol 10, No 1 (2026): Maret
Publisher : Universitas Batanghari Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33087/ekonomis.v10i1.2443

Abstract

Downstream programs in various fields have given birth to several policies, including policies in downstream Crude Palm Oil (CPO) which encourages an increase in foreign exchange or labor absorption. One of the downstream CPO products in high-value-added ceramics is margarine. The demand for margarine products has been increasing every year because margarine is used as a food ingredient. This study used dynamic simultaneous equations spanning the last 25 years (1998-2022) and was processed using SAS software. In this study, an analysis was carried out on what factors affect the demand for CPO by the downstream margarine industry, the demand and supply of domestic margarine products, and the export of Indonesian margarine products. This study also analyzes the impact of downstream policies on the margarine industry, including increasing the export tax on CPO as a raw material for margarine, increasing the production capacity of the downstream margarine industry, or a combination of the two policies. The research concluded that increasing the CPO export tax led to a decrease in CPO export volume, which led to an increase in CPO supply and CPO demand by the margarine downstream industry while increasing production capacity encouraged an increase in demand for CPO by the margarine industry and an increase in CPO prices, then affected in increasing in palm oil productivity. The combination of these two policies has a positive impact on increasing the downstream of CPO into marginal, but they need to be encouraged by the government in the future, therefore it can generate a higher export foreign exchange value.
KEBERLANJUTAN PERDAGANGAN KARET ALAM INDONESIA KE PASAR STRATEGIS: PERBANDINGAN OLS DAN PPML DALAM REGRESI DATA PANEL: The Sustainability of Indonesian Natural Rubber Trade in Strategic Markets: A Comparison of OLS and PPML in Panel Data Regression Ni Ketut Dela Yanti; Daffa Ibra Danendra; Dina Roffida Haqqi Daqianus; Titin Suhatini Koswara; Dini Mulia Sari; Muhamad Alfin Hisam; Novindra
Indonesian Journal of Agricultural Resource and Environmental Economics Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026): June 2026
Publisher : IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29244/jgesms61

Abstract

This study analyzes the determinants of Indonesian natural rubber exports to strategic global markets using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) on panel data from 2013-2022. The dependent variable is the export value of natural rubber (HS 4001), while the independent variables include real GDP of Indonesia and partner countries, geographical distance, real exchange rates, economic freedom indicators (Government Integrity, Business Freedom, Trade Freedom, Financial Freedom), and infrastructure quality (Container Port Traffic). OLS estimation using the Fixed Effects Model (FEM) reveals that the real GDP of trading partner countries, geographical distance, real exchange rates, and all economic freedom indicators, as well as Container Port Traffic, significantly influence Indonesian rubber exports, with the model explaining 62.48% of the variation in exports. In contrast, PPML only shows the real GDP of trading partner countries as significant, but with a negative coefficient, which is theoretically contradictory. This difference is attributed to PPML's sensitivity to data distribution, particularly the absence of zero trade flows in the export data, leading to an underestimation. Therefore, OLS proves to be more informative in capturing the sensitivity of factors determining Indonesian rubber exports in this data context. Penelitian ini menganalisis faktor-faktor penentu ekspor karet alam Indonesia ke pasar strategis global menggunakan Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) dan Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) pada data panel tahun 2013-2022. Variabel dependen adalah nilai ekspor karet alam (HS 4001), sementara variabel independen meliputi PDB riil Indonesia dan negara mitra, jarak geografis, nilai tukar riil, indikator kebebasan ekonomi (Government Integrity, Business Freedom, Trade Freedom, Financial Freedom), dan kualitas infrastruktur (Container Port Traffic). Hasil estimasi OLS dengan Fixed Effect Model (FEM) menunjukkan bahwa PDB riil negara mitra, jarak geografis, nilai tukar riil, serta semua indikator kebebasan ekonomi dan Container Port Traffic secara signifikan memengaruhi ekspor karet Indonesia, dengan model menjelaskan 62,48% variasi ekspor. Sebaliknya, PPML hanya menunjukkan PDB riil negara mitra yang signifikan, namun dengan koefisien negatif yang kontradiktif secara teori. Perbedaan ini disebabkan sensitivitas PPML terhadap distribusi data, khususnya ketiadaan observasi nol (zero trade flows) dalam data ekspor, menyebabkan underestimation. Oleh karena itu, OLS terbukti lebih informatif dalam menangkap sensitivitas faktor-faktor penentu ekspor karet Indonesia dalam konteks data ini.
Co-Authors . Nuva Adi Hadianto, Adi Amzul Rifin Anggriani Oktavia Sitanggang Arifah, Zumrotul Asifa Asifa Asifa Asifa Asti Istiqomah Bernard B. deRosari Bonar M Sinaga Bonar M Sinaga Bonar M. Sinaga Bonar Marulitua Sinaga Cheerisha Balya Akhlima Daffa Ibra Danendra Daffa Ibra Danendra Dahlan, Haris Bin Damayanti, Elok Dea Amanda Dina Roffida Haqqi Daqianus Dini Mulia Sari Dwi Rachmina Eka Intan K.P. Eka Intan Kumala Putri Erwidodo Erwidodo Erwidodo Fadhil, Rahmat Ferani, Lathifa Marsya Nathania Ferdy Adif I. Fallo Ghina Salsabila Haj, Muhammad Hairul Halim, Hendra Hana Indriana Hartoyo Hartoyo Hastuti Hastuti Hastuty Musa Hesti Widyaningsih In-In Hanidah Indah Adelina Siregar Maisaroh Maisaroh Miftahuddin Miftahuddin Mintarti Mohamad Hanif Bachtiar Mohamad Hanif Bachtiar Muhamad Alfin Hisam Muhammad Azizan Muhammad Hairul Haj Muhammad Haris Riyaldi, Muhammad Haris Murkhana, Murkhana Naelis Naelis Nazla Atikah Hikmatias Nasution Nelonda, Selli Ni Ketut Dela Yanti Ni Ketut Dela Yanti Nia Kurniawati Hidayat, Nia Kurniawati Niken Sulistyowati Nimmi Zulbainarni Nindyantoro, Nindyantoro Nisva, Raisa Ullya Nizam, Ahmad Nofitasari, Rahmi Novi Rosanti Nurjanah, Iga Othman, Razali Bin Pudji Muljono Putri, Eka Intan K. Ridwan Nurdin Rilus Kinseng Rivani, Rivani - sapanli, kastana Septya, Fanny Sri Hartoyo Sugeng Budiharsono Suhana Suhana Titin Suhatini Koswara Tomi Ramadona Vincentius Alfons Leander Wangi Kusuma Arassya Wangi Kusuma Arrasya Yannefri Bachtiar Zaynal Arifin Zumrotul Arifah