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All Journal Journal of the Civil Engineering Forum INTECOMS: Journal of Information Technology and Computer Science JMKSP (Jurnal Manajemen, Kepemimpinan, dan Supervisi Pendidikan) Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen Sistem Informasi Journal of Applied Engineering and Technological Science (JAETS) Darmabakti: Jurnal Inovasi Pengabdian dalam Penerbangan Journal of Airport Engineering Technology (JAET) Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat (JPKM) Langit Biru Jurnal Talenta Sipil Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Bangsa Ranah Research : Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development Journal of Research and Inovation in Civil Engineering as Applied Science Journal of Engineering and Transportation (JET) Journal of Civil Engineering and Vocational Education SKY EAST: Education of Aviation Science and Technology Sewagati Dharma : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Viktor Suryan, Viktor
Politeknik Penerbangan Palembang
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Journal : Journal of the Civil Engineering Forum

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Econometric Forecasting Models for Air Traffic Passenger of Indonesia Viktor Suryan
Journal of the Civil Engineering Forum Vol. 3 No. 1 (January 2017)
Publisher : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, UGM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (437.108 KB) | DOI: 10.22146/jcef.26594

Abstract

One of the major benefits of the air transport services operating in bigger countries is the fact that they provide a vital social economic linkage. This study is an attempt to establish the determinants of the passenger air traffic in Indonesia. The main objective of the study is to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of panel data and to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of time series data. This research also predicts the upcoming number of air traffic passenger until 2030. Air transportation and the economic activity in a country are interdependent. This work first uses the data at the country level and then at the selected airport level for review. The methodology used in this study has adopted the study for both normal regression and panel data regression techniques. Once all these steps are performed, the final equation is taken up for the forecast of the passenger inflow data in the Indonesian airports. To forecast the same, the forecasted numbers of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and population (independent variables were chosen as a part of the literature review exercise) are used. The result of this study shows the GDP per capita have significant related to a number of passengers which the elasticity 2.23 (time-series data) and 1.889 for panel data. The exchange rate variable is unrelated to a number of passengers as shown in the value of elasticity. In addition, the total of population gives small value for the elasticity. Moreover, the number of passengers is also affected by the dummy variable (deregulation). With three scenarios: low, medium and high for GDP per capita, the percentage of growth for total number of air traffic passenger from the year 2015 to 2030 is 199.3%, 205.7%, and 320.9% respectively.
Co-Authors Adha Febriansyah Afra Nabilah Andeni Afriyani, Suci Ryski Nur Ahmad Hariri Almuzani, Almuzani Amalia, Direstu Amalia, Kiki Rizky Anggi Nidya Sari Anggi Nidya Sari Anggi Nidya Sari Sari Apituley, Joshua Henry Frankestein Arinda, Nabila Hasna Ario, Romi Asep M. Soleh Asep Muhammad Soleh Belen Sri H Napitulu Catra Indra Cahyadi Chandra, Putu Wisnu Ardia Cris Kuntadi Darsana, Made Putra Evandri Silitonga Febiyanti, Herlina Febriansyah, Adha Firata, Moch. Daffa Hani Adhwa Nabilah Hendi Warlika Sedo Putra Herlinawati Herlinawati Homzah, Ozkar Firdausi I Gusti Agung Ayu Mas Oka Idyaningsih, Nining Jhellyananda Putri Jhellyananda Putri Lalu Agum Widya Guna Lubis, Lega Reskita M Aditya Prana Yoga M Dimas Bara Alddi M. Ade Surya Pratama M. Fathar Habillah Marlina, Ayu Martadinata, M Indra Meta Amalia N Minulya Eska Nugraha Muhammad Alamsyah Muhammad Kristiawan Muhammad nuwof Muhammad Rafli Fazal Nabilah Hasna Arinda Nugraha, Wildan Nurfitri, Meta Amalia Oka, I Gusti Agung Ayu Mas Oke Hendra Pesilette, M. Syukri Pintanugra Persadanta Pratama, M. Ade Surya Pratama, Randa Agusta Putri, Jhellyananda Putu Wisnu Ardia Raden, Akbar Radius Pranoto Randa Agusta Pratama Randa Agusta Pratama Ricky Ravsyan Alhafez Rio Rizko Rio Rizko Rio Rizko Ristumanda, Siti Salbiah Rizko, Rio Salbiah, Siti Sari, Anggi Nidya Septiani, Virma Setiyo, Setiyo Silitonga, Evandri Sita, Tisara Siti Salbiah Ristumanda Soleh, Asep Muhamad Suci Rizki Nur Afriani Suci Ryski Nur Afriyani Sukahir Sukahir, Sukahir Sunardi Sunardi Suprihartini, Yayuk Tody Amanah Virma Septiani Wahyudi Saputra Wardhan, Dyah Utari Yusa Wijaya, Muhammad Tegar Wirawan, Yani Yudha Wulandari, Pegi Yeti Komalasari Yulianti, Dimitri