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Journal : International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering

Enabling External Factors for Inflation Rate Forecasting Using Fuzzy Neural System Nadia Roosmalita Sari; Wayan Firdaus Mahmudy; Aji Prasetya Wibawa; Elta Sonalitha
International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE) Vol 7, No 5: October 2017
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (819.454 KB) | DOI: 10.11591/ijece.v7i5.pp2746-2756

Abstract

Inflation is the tendency of increasing prices of goods in general and happens continuously. Indonesia's economy will decline if inflation is not controlled properly. To control the inflation rate required an inflation rate forecasting in Indonesia. The forecasting result will be used as information to the government in order to keep the inflation rate stable. This study proposes Fuzzy Neural System (FNS) to forecast the inflation rate. This study uses historical data and external factors as the parameters. The external factor using in this study is very important, which inflation rate is not only affected by the historical data. External factor used are four external factors which each factor has two fuzzy set. While historical data is divided into three input variables with three fuzzy sets. The combination of three input variables and four external factors will generate too many rules. Generate of rules with too many amounts will less effective and have lower accuracy. The novelty is needed to minimalize the amount of rules by using two steps fuzzy. To evaluate the forecasting results, Root Means Square Error (RMSE) technique is used. Fuzzy Inference System Sugeno used as the comparison method. The study results show that FNS has a better performance than the comparison method with RMSE that is 1.81.
Co-Authors A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W AA Sudharmawan, AA Abdul Rabi Abdul Rozaq Adi Sunarwan Agus Naba Agustina, Rini Aji Prasetya Wibawa Akramul, Busro Alwan, Chotib Anastasia L Maukar Anik Yuesti Anis Zubair, Anis Aries Boedi Setiawan Arifuddin, Rahman Asri Samsiar Ilmananda Audia, Syahva Auwaluddin, Muhammad Bambang Nurdewanto Bekti Prihatiningsih Bondhan Rio P Devita Maulina Putri, Devita Maulina Dinda Ahsana Zahra Fridayanti Dionisius Aurelius Lami Dionisius Aurelius Lami Dyah Setyawati Dyah Setyawati Eko Agus Susilo Fachrurizal, Andry Fadila Wulandari Fahreza, Moch. Aditya Rizky Fitri Marisa Frumentius Ngene Ngaji Galih, Aditya Gunawan A Sambodo Haris Satriyawan Haris Satriyawan Haris, Munanto Hasan, Mohammad Farras Hery Budiyanto Isvine Zahroya Jazmine Marzuki Fahd Krisdianto Kukuh Yudhistiro, Kukuh Moechammad Sarosa Muhammad Iqbal Muhammad Nibras Adha Muhammad Nibras Agung Adha Nadia Roosmalita Sari Nanis Hairunisya Ninik Catur Endah Yuliati Nurwijayanto, Putra Ramadhani Pindo Tutuko Pramaditya, Himawan Prasetya, Arya Yuda Pungky Eka Setyawan Puspitarini, Erri Wahyu Rabi, Abd Rabi’, Abdur Rahmatina Hidayati Rifki Hari Romadhon Roesdijanto Roesdijanto Roikhah, Elfiatur Ronald David Rusdijanto Rusdijanto Sari Yuniarti Sari, Resi Dwi Jayanti Kartika Sirait, Millenia Zwi Sabatina Soelaksono, Aditya Galih Sri Widayati Subairi Subairi Subairi Subairi Sumarahinsih, Andrijani Wahyono, Raihan Atthariq Wahyu Dirgantara Wahyu Dirgantara Wayan Firdaus Mahmudy Yamlean, Andreas Mario Yandhika Surya Akbar Gumilang Zamroni, Subhan