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Journal : International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering

Enabling External Factors for Inflation Rate Forecasting Using Fuzzy Neural System Nadia Roosmalita Sari; Wayan Firdaus Mahmudy; Aji Prasetya Wibawa; Elta Sonalitha
International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE) Vol 7, No 5: October 2017
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (819.454 KB) | DOI: 10.11591/ijece.v7i5.pp2746-2756

Abstract

Inflation is the tendency of increasing prices of goods in general and happens continuously. Indonesia's economy will decline if inflation is not controlled properly. To control the inflation rate required an inflation rate forecasting in Indonesia. The forecasting result will be used as information to the government in order to keep the inflation rate stable. This study proposes Fuzzy Neural System (FNS) to forecast the inflation rate. This study uses historical data and external factors as the parameters. The external factor using in this study is very important, which inflation rate is not only affected by the historical data. External factor used are four external factors which each factor has two fuzzy set. While historical data is divided into three input variables with three fuzzy sets. The combination of three input variables and four external factors will generate too many rules. Generate of rules with too many amounts will less effective and have lower accuracy. The novelty is needed to minimalize the amount of rules by using two steps fuzzy. To evaluate the forecasting results, Root Means Square Error (RMSE) technique is used. Fuzzy Inference System Sugeno used as the comparison method. The study results show that FNS has a better performance than the comparison method with RMSE that is 1.81.
Co-Authors A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W AA Sudharmawan, AA Abdul Rabi Abdul Rozaq Adha, Muhammad Nibras Adi Sunarwan Agung Adha, Muhammad Nibras Agus Naba Agus Susilo, Eko Agustina, Rini Aji Prasetya Wibawa Akramul, Busro Alwan, Chotib Anastasia L Maukar Anik Yuesti Anis Zubair, Anis Arianto, Nur Alif Aries Boedi Setiawan Arifuddin, Rahman Asri Samsiar Ilmananda Audia, Syahva Auwaluddin, Muhammad Bambang Nurdewanto Bekti Prihatiningsih Bungalawele, Stepin Bless Etnaf Devita Maulina Putri, Devita Maulina Dionisius Aurelius Lami Dyah Setyawati Fachrurizal, Andry Fahreza, Moch. Aditya Rizky Fitri Marisa Fridayanti, Dinda Ahsana Zahra Frumentius Ngene Ngaji Galih, Aditya Haris Satriyawan Haris, Munanto Hasan, Mohammad Farras Hery Budiyanto Hidayatulail, Basitha Febrinda Isvine Zahroya Jazmine Marzuki Fahd Krisdianto Kukuh Yudhistiro, Kukuh Lami, Dionisius Aurelius Moechammad Sarosa Muhammad Iqbal Nachrowie, Nachrowie Nadia Roosmalita Sari Nanis Hairunisya Nurwijayanto, Putra Ramadhani Pindo Tutuko Pramaditya, Himawan Prasetya, Arya Yuda Pratama, Aditya Hidayat Pungky Eka Setyawan Puspitarini, Erri Wahyu Rabi, Abd Rabi’, Abdur Rahmatina Hidayati Renyaan, Edward Hariyanto Bidu Rifki Hari Romadhon Rio P, Bondhan Roesdijanto Roesdijanto Roikhah, Elfiatur Romagusta, Ibsen Galih Ronald David Rozaq, Rozaq Rusdijanto Rusdijanto Sambodo, Gunawan A Sari Yuniarti Sari, Resi Dwi Jayanti Kartika Sirait, Millenia Zwi Sabatina Soelaksono, Aditya Galih Sri Widayati Sri Widayati Subairi Subairi Subairi, Ir. Sumarahinsih, Andrijani Wahyono, Raihan Atthariq Wahyu Dirgantara Wahyu Dirgantara Wayan Firdaus Mahmudy Wediyantoro, Prilla Wulandari, Fadila Yamlean, Andreas Mario Yandhika Surya Akbar Gumilang Yuliati, Ninik Catur Endah Zamroni, Subhan