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Journal : International Journal of Engineering, Science and Information Technology

Performance Evaluation of Machine Learning and Deep Learning for Rainfall Forecasting Soebroto, Arief Andy; Limantara, Lily Montarcih; Mahmudy, Wayan Firdaus; Sholichin, Moh.; Hidayat, Nurul; Kharisma, Agi Putra
International Journal of Engineering, Science and Information Technology Vol 5, No 4 (2025)
Publisher : Malikussaleh University, Aceh, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52088/ijesty.v5i4.1179

Abstract

Climate change is a significant challenge for both humans and the environment, with its impacts increasingly felt across various regions of the world. The most evident consequence is the alteration of extreme weather patterns, which often lead to destructive and life-threatening natural disasters. Among these, extreme rainfall was the most damaging factor, frequently triggering floods. However, the increasing occurrence of related events outlined the urgent need for developing more accurate rainfall forecasting systems as a strategic measure for disaster risk reduction. This research adopted daily rainfall data from Samarinda City, collected between 2004 and 2012, to conduct prediction using both machine and deep learning methods. The implementation of machine learning methods, such as Support Vector Regression (SVR), enabled the model to learn from historical data and uncover complex patterns, resulting in accurate forecasts and improved adaptability to climate variability. Meanwhile, deep learning models, including Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), enhanced prediction performance by capturing more intricate and abstract data relationships. Performance evaluations conducted using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) showed that deep learning outperformed machine learning in accuracy. The LSTM model achieved the best performance, with loss values of 0.0482 and 0.0527 for MSE and MAE, respectively. The advantage of deep learning lies in its ability to build more complex models for handling non-linear problems and to learn data representations at various levels of abstraction, which has led to more accurate results. Furthermore, LSTM surpassed RNN by effectively overcoming the vanishing gradient issue, allowing for more stable and efficient training that led to superior predictive performance.
Co-Authors Abadinata, Muhammad Richo Achmad Arwan Achzubi, Muhammad Rayhan Adam Hendra Brata Agriani, Elsa Chintia Akbar, Muhammad Aminul Al Huda, Fais Al Kindi, Cheka Cakrecjwara Alfath, Muhammad Fajar Alvanro, Hafez Alvaresyufa, Mohammad Nafi Anggraheni, Hanna Shafira Ardhani, Maharani Fawwaz Arief Andy Soebroto Aristiani, Cantika Shinta Aryo Pinandito Aziza, Poppy Marcelia Azzahra, Daniswari Yurin Bayu Priyambadha Bayu Priyambadha Buana, Jordy Cahya Budidarwanto, Anargya Hassya Chafith, Mochammad Nafisa Dewantoro, Mury Fajar Efendi, Ridho Aqli Eko Sakti Pramukantoro, Eko Sakti Fadhlan, Rafi Ahmad Fanani, Luthfi Farah, Najla Alia Farys, Sholeh Al Fawwaz Haryono, M. Naufal Firmansyah, Maulana Zidhan Haikal Fajri, Muhamad Hakeem, Rayhan Haris Halim, Abdul Herman Tolle Hernando, Neo Huda, Fais Al Ihsan, Andhika Ihsan, Miftahul Islami, Muhammad Zakki Jonemaro, Eriq Muhammad Adams Juan, Patrick Kusuma Dewi, Elok Nuraida Kusuma, Muhammad Cakra Pandu Lily Montarcih Limantara Lutfi Fanani Maghfiroh, Dirgahayu Tyas Maharani, Monalisa Mahardeka Tri Ananta, Mahardeka Tri Millah, Munirotul Mochamad Chandra Saputra, Mochamad Chandra Moh. Sholichin Muh. Arif Rahman Muhammad Zainul Arifin Muhammad Zaki Mulya, Azka Isnandaru Fajrina Nisar, Bahrum Nugraha, Muhammad Huda Nurul Hidayat Patra, Dwi Satria Pradayana, Wayan Christian Prakoso, Gideon Aji Pratondo, Alistya Fikri Prayoga, Bagus Vernanda Adi Putra Pandu Adikara Putri, Safinatunnajah Mutiara Rabbani, Achmad Daffa Rachman, Ramadhani Rahman, Muhammad Arif Rahmansyah, Muhammad Dzikri Ratih Kartika Dewi Riswan Septriayadi Sianturi Rumagutawan, Fahmi Noordin Salam, Mahrus Shafa Santoso, Nurudin Saputra, Arlinno Ganda Saputro, Aditya Ikhwan Sucipto, Faiz Ahmad Sukma Valenta, Avidhyana Syahril, Fadira Bima Thoriq Albari, Muhammad Wardani, Dhamar Santi Kusuma Wayan Firdaus Mahmudy Yogastama, Reyhan Ardiya Zayyannarantis, Kautsarratu Athaya