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Suryanto, Wiwit
Department Of Physics, Universitas Gajah Mada, Yogyakarta, 55281, Indonesia.
Aerospace Engineering Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Astronomy Automotive Engineering Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Earth & Planetary Sciences Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mechanical Engineering Physics

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Journal : Science and Technology Indonesia

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Probabilistic Earthquake Hazard Assessment in Indonesia Using Poisson Model and Spatial Grid Analysis Hartati; Effendie, Adhitya Ronnie; Susyanto, Nanang; Suryanto, Wiwit
Science and Technology Indonesia Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026): January
Publisher : Research Center of Inorganic Materials and Coordination Complexes, FMIPA Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26554/sti.2026.11.1.207-216

Abstract

Indonesia, located at the convergence of three major tectonic plates in the Pacific Ring of Fire (ROF), is highly susceptible to earthquakes. This study analyzes earthquake hazard in Indonesia using a statistical approach based on the Poisson distribution combined with spatial mapping through a 0.5o x 0.5o grid. Earthquake  data from the USGS catalog (1925–2025), including time, location, depth, and magnitude, were analyzed. Annual earthquake frequencies were calculated for each grid cell with magnitude ≥ 5.0, and the probability of at least one event occurring within 10, 25, and 50 years was estimated using the Poisson probability function. Results were visualized as spatial probability risk maps for 10-, 25-, and 50-year horizons, enabling the identification of earthquake-prone areas and classification of risk levels. The findings reveal that subduction zones, particularly along the Sunda Arc, exhibit probabilities exceeding 90% for M≥ 5 events within the next 50 years, highlighting their significance for disaster preparedness. These results demonstrate that a Poisson-based statistical and spatial approach is effective for probabilistic earthquake hazard mapping and provides direct support for disaster risk reduction and spatial planning in Indonesia.
Co-Authors A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W Abdul Basit Achmad, Rahim Adhatus Solichah Ahmadiyah, Adhatus Solichah Adhitya Ronnie Effendie, Adhitya Ronnie Agung Harijoko Agus Subekti Agus Subekti Agus Suprianto Ahmad Fauzi Pohan Amelia, Risky Nuri Ari Setiawan Ari Setiawan Ari Setiawan ARI SETIAWAN Aryono Adhi, Aryono Aswan, Marwis Ayu Putri Ningsih Ayu Putri Ningsih Azka Zakiyyatuddin Boko Nurdiyanto Dairoh Dairoh, Dairoh Daryono, Mudrik Rahmawan Donatus Hendra Amijaya Doni Prakasa Eka Putra Drajat Ngadmanto Dwa Desa Warnana Ellianawati, Ellianawati Estuning Tyas Wulan Mei Fauzi, Hendra Harmadi Harmadi HARTATI Helmi Yusnaini Helmi Yusnaini Hendra Fauzi Herlan Darmawan Herlan Darmawan Hesti Hesti Hesti Hesti Hiroyuki Hashiguchi Hiroyuki Hashiguchi Imam Suyanto irwan meilano Irwan Meilano Irzaman, Irzaman Jaingot A. Parhusip Jaingot A. Parhusip, Jaingot A. Jamidun, Jamidun Maria Evita Maria Evita Marzuki Marzuki Mitra Djamal Mitra Djamal Moh Yasin Mohammad Yasin Muh Sarkowi Muhammad Rusydi H. Mutya Vonnisa Nina Siti Aminah Nina Siti Aminah Nurul Priyantari P, Subagio P. Perdinan Palgunadi, Kadek Hendrawan Pupung Susilanto Putra, Heriansyah Rais Ramdani Salam Ravidho Ramadhan Ravidho Ramadhan Retna Apsari Rian Amukti Rohima Wahyu Ningrum Rohima Wahyu Ningrum, Rohima Wahyu Ry, Rexha Verdhora Samodra, Saptono Budi SB, Kirbani Sensius Seno Sholihun, Sholihun Simanjuntak, Andrean Vesalius Hasiholan Sirait, Anne Meylani Magdalena Sismanto Sismanto Sri Widiyantoro Sugeng Sapto Surjono Suliyanti Pakpahan Supriyadi Supriyadi Supriyadi Supriyadi Susyanto, Nanang Syaifuddin, Firman Syarifatul Ulfah Taib, Suryani Toyoshi Shimomai Toyoshi Shimomai Triahandini, Agnis Very Kurnia Bakti, Very Kurnia Wahidin, Nurhalis Wahyu Srigutomo Wahyu Srigutomo Wahyudi Wahyudi Wahyudi Wahyudi Wahyudi Wahyudi Wahyudi Wahyudi Wahyudi Wahyudi Wahyudi Wahyudi