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All Journal Ekonomikawan : Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan EKONOMIS : Journal of Economics and Business Owner : Riset dan Jurnal Akuntansi Neraca Keuangan : Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi dan Keuangan Jurnal Samudra Ekonomi dan Bisnis JIIP (Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pendidikan) IJECA (International Journal of Education and Curriculum Application) GUYUB: Journal of Community Engagement Cita Ekonomika: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Journal Of Human And Education (JAHE) Asian Journal of Innovative Research in Social Science Innovative: Journal Of Social Science Research IIJSE Journal of Sustainable Economics Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan Indonesia
Syafii, M.
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Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Public Health Social Sciences Other

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Dynamic Analysis of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Mix on Inflation and Unemployment in Indonesia SARI, WAHYU INDAH; Hasyim, Sirojuzilam; Syafii, M.
Jurnal Cita Ekonomika Vol 19 No 2 (2025): Cita Ekonomika: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi
Publisher : Jurusan Ekonomi Pembangunan, FEB Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51125/citaekonomika.v19i2.23948

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the dynamic interactions between monetary and fiscal policies and their effects on inflation and unemployment in Indonesia. The study employs a Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach using annual data from 2000 to 2024. The variables include the policy interest rate (BI Rate), inflation, unemployment, GDP growth, government expenditure, exchange rate, and tax revenue. The unit root tests indicate that the variables exhibit a combination of I(0) and I(1) integration orders, while the Johansen cointegration test confirms the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. The optimal lag length is determined to be two, and the stability test confirms that the VAR model is stable. The Granger causality test reveals that the BI Rate significantly Granger-causes inflation and unemployment, whereas reverse causality is not supported. In addition, inflation is found to Granger-cause unemployment, and fiscal as well as external variables—government expenditure, tax revenue, and exchange rate—significantly affect inflation. The Impulse Response Function (IRF) results show that a positive shock to the policy interest rate gradually reduces inflation but leads to a short-run increase in unemployment. Furthermore, the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) indicates that inflation variability is largely driven by monetary policy shocks, while unemployment and economic growth fluctuations are mainly explained by fiscal policy and internal economic dynamics. These findings highlight the importance of strong coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to maintain macroeconomic stability in Indonesia.
Co-Authors Adhani, Nadia Ahmad Albar Tanjung Andayani, Sri Astutik Anggia, Yola Aulia, Muhammad Berutu, Saiful Ragatna Butar, Riyani Butar Damanik, Darwin Daniel Ebenezer Silaban Dewi Ratna Sari E, Efri Ramadhana Franklin Asido Rossevelt Ginting, Simson Gulo, Ahmad Jumadin Hamdi Hamdi Harahap, Kobul Harahap, Misna Doharni Hasyim, Sirojuzilam Hutagalung, Abdul Jalil Irsad Lubis Julifianti, Rinda Riyani Keynes, Benhard Paidi Hidayat Prihatin Lumbanraja Putri, Anastasia Yolanda Rahma, Aini Raina Linda Sari Rambe, Dhea Nita Syafina Rangkuti, Shihabuddin Fuady Robiatul Adawiyah Saragih, Wike Ardinawati Sari, Wahyu Indah Sembiring, Pebry Yola Sari Br. Seprianti, Viola Ditya Setiyo Adi Nugroho Shidiq, M. Shihab, Muhammad Wahyu Sijabat, Lastri Putri BR Sinaga, Depo Lestari Sirojulizam, Sirojulizam Sirojuzilam Hasyim Sitanggang, Andre Sitompul, Gabriel Amadeus Sudiarto Sudiarto Sukardi Sukardi Sumiran, Sumiran Syahidin Syahidin, Syahidin Wahyu Ario Pratomo