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All Journal JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Jurnal Sains Dasar PYTHAGORAS: Jurnal Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika AKSIOMA JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN MUST: Journal of Mathematics Education, Science and Technology BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) MATAPPA: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Teorema: Teori dan Riset Matematika Journal of Education Technology Jambura Journal of Mathematics Jurnal Matematika UNAND Transformasi : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Matematika Jurnal Saintika Unpam : Jurnal Sains dan Matematika Unpam Mandalika Mathematics and Educations Journal ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Majalah Ilmiah Matematika dan Statistika (MIMS) Jambura Journal of Mathematics Education Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Journal of Science and Technology JES-MAT (Jurnal Edukasi dan Sains Matematika) MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika METIKS: Jurnal Teknik Mesin, Elektro, Informatika, Kelautan & Sains Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath) Jurnal Sintak Jurnal Multidisiplin Sahombu Jurnal Matematika Integratif Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) Bilangan: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Kebumian dan Angkasa Algoritma: Jurnal Matematika, Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Kebumian dan Angkasa Indonesian Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics
Agusyarif Rezka Nuha
Universitas Negeri Gorontalo
Arts Astronomy Automotive Engineering Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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A Mathematical Model of the Mud Crab (Scylla Sp.) Involving Cannibalism and Refuge Abubakar, Agung Sucipto; Panigoro, Hasan S.; Djakaria, Ismail; Nuha, Agusyarif Rezka; Hasan, Isran K.; Asriadi, Asriadi
Indonesian Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics Vol. 1 No. 1: February 2025
Publisher : Gammarise Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.64182/indocam.v1i1.12

Abstract

Cannibalism, a common ecological phenomenon in various species, significantly impacts the population dynamics of mud crabs (Scylla sp.). This study develops a mathematical model to analyze the effects of cannibalism and protective refuges on the population sustainability of juvenile and adult mud crabs. The model identifies two equilibrium points: the extinction equilibrium and the coexistence equilibrium. Stability analysis using the Jacobian matrix reveals that the extinction equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable under specific conditions. In contrast, the coexistence equilibrium depends on the transition rate from juvenile to adult crabs and the effectiveness of protective measures. Numerical simulations demonstrate that increasing the transition rate and implementing higher levels of refuge protection mitigate the adverse effects of cannibalism, enhancing population stability. These findings provide a quantitative foundation for sustainable fisheries management and conservation strategies for mud crab populations in mangrove ecosystems.
Prediksi Jumlah Calon Mahasiswa Baru Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series dan ARIMA: Studi Kasus: Program Studi Statistika Aprina Manggarai; Lailany Yahya; Agusyarif Rezka Nuha
Bilangan : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Kebumian dan Angkasa Vol. 3 No. 5 (2025): Oktober : Bilangan : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Kebumian dan Angkasa
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Matematika dan Sains Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62383/bilangan.v3i5.829

Abstract

Academic planning is one form of planning the teaching and learning process in state universities, aimed at achieving educational goals based on the standards set. One important aspect of academic planning is forecasting the number of new students. This study compares two forecasting methods, Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), in predicting the number of new students in the Statistics Study Program at Universitas Negeri Gorontalo. Forecasting the number of new students is crucial for determining various policies, such as resource allocation and providing adequate facilities. The results of the study show that the ARIMA method produces more accurate predictions with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.35%, which is lower than the FTS method. This indicates that ARIMA is more effective in predicting the number of new students in the Statistics Study Program at Universitas Negeri Gorontalo and can serve as a reference to improve academic planning quality in higher education institutions.
Strategi pengendalian penyebaran penyakit kolera dengan vaksinasi, edukasi, dan karantina: analisis model dan simulasi Nuha, Agusyarif Rezka; Nashar, La Ode; Agung, Andi; Takaendengan, Bertu Rianto; Nuha, Widyastutifajri
Mandalika Mathematics and Educations Journal Vol 7 No 4 (2025): Desember
Publisher : FKIP Universitas Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/jm.v7i4.10479

Abstract

Cholera is an infectious disease transmitted through water contaminated with Vibrio cholerae bacteria. This disease remains a public health challenge, especially in areas with poor sanitation. This study developed an SVIQR-B mathematical model to analyze the dynamics of cholera spread, taking into account the effects of quarantine, vaccination, and environmental hygiene education. The analysis was conducted on disease-free and endemic equilibrium points using a local stability approach based on the basic reproduction number (R0). The results showed that when R0 < 1 , the disease would disappear from the population, while R0 > 1 indicated the potential for endemicity. Sensitivity analysis and numerical simulation results indicate that an increase in the transmission rate and a decrease in vaccine effectiveness cause an increase in the value, while an increase in vaccination coverage and the effectiveness of education contribute to a decrease in infection rates. These findings emphasize the importance of implementing integrated medical and educational interventions in efforts to control cholera in a sustainable manner.
Calculation of Annual Premiums and Premium Reserves for Endowment Joint Life Insurance Based on Stochastic Interest Rates Using the Monte Carlo Method Bela Cintiya Samwan; Agusyarif Rezka Nuha; Armayani Arsal; Emli Rahmi; La Ode Nashar
Jurnal Multidisiplin Sahombu Vol. 6 No. 01 (2026): Jurnal Multidisiplin Sahombu, January 2026
Publisher : Sean Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

This study examines the determination of annual premiums and premium reserves for an endowment joint life insurance product by incorporating interest rate uncertainty through the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) stochastic model and Monte Carlo simulation. The Indonesian Mortality Table 2023 is used to compute joint survival probabilities for the three insured individuals, while the CIR parameters are estimated from historical interest rate data for the period 2020-2024. The present value of benefits and annuities is calculated along each simulated path, enabling the premium and premium reserves to be evaluated prospectively based on fluctuating interest rate dynamics. The results show that the magnitude of premiums and reserves is influenced by the initial ages of the insured, the mortality structure, the sum assured, and the variability of the simulated interest rates. At the beginning of the contract, all scenarios produce negative reserves because accumulated premiums are still insufficient to cover the expected present value of benefits. However, the reserves increase steadily over time and turn positive toward the end of the insurance term. These findings indicate that the Monte Carlo approach based on the CIR model provides a more adaptive and realistic representation of premium and reserve behavior compared with deterministic methods, thereby supporting more accurate financial risk assessment for insurance companies.
Analysis of Premium Reserves in Whole Life and Term Life Insurance Using the New Jersey Prospective Method Husuna, Cabelita; Achmad, Novianita; Nuha, Agusyarif Rezka; Yahya, Nisky Imansyah; Ayyasy, Muhammad Yahya
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 4 No 3 (2025): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/parameterv4i3pp509-520

Abstract

Human life is constantly exposed to risks such as illness, accidents, and death, which create financial uncertainties for individuals and families. Life insurance serves as an essential financial instrument to mitigate these risks by transferring potential liabilities to insurance companies. This study analyzes premium reserves for whole life and term life insurance using the New Jersey Prospective Method, applying a 6% interest rate and the 2023 Indonesian Mortality Table (TMPI) as the basis of calculation. Actuarial commutation functions are employed to compute annuity values, single net premiums, annual net premiums, and reserve allocations across different ages. The results indicate that reserve values increase with age, reflecting higher mortality risks, with whole life insurance showing a sharper escalation compared to term life insurance. The New Jersey Prospective Method demonstrates accuracy and consistency in reserve estimation, particularly by setting zero reserves in the first policy year, thereby supporting initial liquidity. These findings highlight the method’s effectiveness in maintaining financial stability and readiness of insurance companies to meet future claims and long-term obligations to policyholders.
Integrasi Prinsip Universal Design for Learning (UDL) Pada E-Modul Matematika Berbasis Problem-Based Learning Di Kelas VII SMP Takaendengan, Bertu Rianto; Nuha, Agusyarif Rezka; Damayanti, Taulia; Lasantu, Patra; Kundju, Adib Rizal
Jambura Journal of Mathematics Education Vol 6, No 2: September 2025
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jmathedu.v6i2.36349

Abstract

The development of digital technology requires innovative teaching materials that are interactive, adaptive, and inclusive, particularly in mathematics learning, which is still dominated by conventional methods and results in low student achievement. This study aimed to develop a mathematics e-module based on Problem-Based Learning (PBL) with the integration of Universal Design for Learning (UDL) principles on ratio material for seventh-grade students. The research was conducted at SMP Negeri 1 Wonosari during the even semester of the 2024/2025 academic year using the research and development approach with the 4D model (define, design, develop, disseminate), involving experts for validation as well as teachers and students for trials. Data were collected through validation sheets, questionnaires, and learning achievement tests, and analyzed descriptively. The results showed that the developed e-module met the feasibility criteria with an average of 86.75% (Good category) and was rated very practical with a score of 88% by teachers and students. The limitation of this study lies in its narrow scope; therefore, further research is recommended to involve broader materials and diverse school contexts. This study confirms that the integration of PBL and UDL in e-modules can serve as an innovative alternative to support mathematics learning that is more interactive, contextual, and inclusive.
Development of a Hybrid ARIMA–Fourier Series Model for Air Temperature Forecasting at the Gorontalo Climatology Station Suci Tilome; Isran K. Hasan; Agusyarif Rezka Nuha
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 01 (March 2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcosv9i1.11462

Abstract

Air temperature is a key climatic variable that reflects environmental conditions and influences various human activities. Recent observations indicate a persistent upward trend associated with global warming, leading to greater variability in climate patterns. These changes highlight the importance of forecasting methods that can accurately represent the characteristics of air temperature time series to support planning and decision-making. Reliable prediction is therefore essential for understanding climate dynamics and anticipating potential environmental impacts. This study proposes an air temperature forecasting approach using a hybrid Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Fourier Series Analysis (FSA) model. The ARIMA component is applied to model trend behavior and temporal dependence, while FSA captures the remaining seasonal patterns in the ARIMA residuals. By integrating these two approaches, the hybrid model aims to improve forecasting accuracy in the presence of both stochastic and periodic components. The results show that the hybrid ARIMA–FSA model achieves good forecasting performance, with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.56, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.66, and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 2.07%. These findings indicate that the proposed model effectively represents air temperature dynamics and can be considered a reliable alternative for climate forecasting applications
Adaptive ANFIS–PSO Model for Forecasting Bird’s Eye Chili Prices in Gorontalo Province Nur Siyam Djibu; Isran K. Hasan; Agusyarif Rezka Nuha
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 01 (March 2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcosv9i1.11473

Abstract

Bird’s eye chili is one of the strategic food commodities in Indonesia with high price volatility and a significant contribution to food inflation, particularly in Gorontalo Province. The dynamic and nonlinear characteristics of bird’s eye chili prices often hinder accurate forecasting when using conventional methods, thereby requiring an adaptive approach capable of capturing complex data patterns. Therefore, this study applies an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) optimized using Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to improve the accuracy of bird’s eye chili price forecasting. This study utilizes daily bird’s eye chili price data in Gorontalo Province from 1 January 2019 to 31 October 2025, obtained from the National Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS). The ANFIS model is optimized using adaptive PSO to obtain optimal parameter values that address local convergence problems and parameter sensitivity commonly encountered in conventional ANFIS models. Model performance is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results indicate that the adaptive ANFIS–PSO model achieves a MAPE value of 17.4487% on the training dataset, which decreases significantly to 5.0741% on the testing dataset. The testing MAPE value below 10% demonstrates that the proposed model has excellent generalization capability in capturing bird’s eye chili price fluctuations. These findings confirm that adaptive PSO-based parameter optimization effectively enhances ANFIS performance in modelling nonlinear and highly volatile time series data. The proposed forecasting model can serve as a reliable analytical tool to support decision-making and regional food price stabilzation policies in Gorontalo Province.
Co-Authors Abdul, Nur Safitri Abubakar, Agung Sucipto Agung, Andi Aliwu, Randa Resvitasari Andi Agung Anggraini, Fitriana Anissa Dwi Wijayanti Aprina Manggarai Armayani Arsal Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Aswata Wisnuadji Ayyasy, Muhammad Yahya Bela Cintiya Samwan Bertu Rianto Takaendengan Biga, Azril Saputra Chasanah, Sri Istiyarti Uswatun Dewi Rahmawaty Isa Djibran, Fahrudin Djihad Wungguli Djuma, Clara Anggriani Eko Sulistyono Sulistyono Fajri Ikhsan Franky Alfrits Oroh Ghivahri Sidik Mokoagow Hasan S. Panigoro Hasan, Riyanto Hendri, Excel Muhammad Hinelo, Ikrar Prasetyo Husuna, Cabelita Ibrahim, Novita Ismail Djakaria Isran K Hasan Janna, Miftahul K. Nasib, Salmun Kai, Ferawati Kasim, Ranan Kundju, Adib Rizal La Ode Nashar Lailany Yahya Lailany Yahya Laita, Nazrilla Hasan Lasantu, Patra Lindrawati Abdjul Mahmud, Sri Lestari Melasarah Deswita Rahmadi Miftahul Huda Moh Dody Afandi Rauf Mohamad, Regina Muhammad Ikhlas Muhammad Rifai Katili Nadiyyah, Ana Nento, Abdul Djabar Nina Valentika NISKY IMANSYAH YAHYA Novianita Achmad Nur Siyam Djibu NUR ’AIN SUPU Nursiya Bito Nurwan Nurwan NURWAN NURWAN Nurwan Nurwan Nurwan, Nurwan Pakaya, Revandi S. Rahman, Gusti Arviana Rahmi, Emli Rasmawati Rasmawati Rasyid, Kamelia Rauf, Moh Dody Afandi Resmawan Resmawan Rozikin, Muhammad Rusniwati S. Imran Salmun K. Nasib Saltina, Saltina Sari, Lia Nanda Sidik Susilo Sigar, Leidi Siti Nurmardia Abdussamad Sri Istiyarti Uswatun Chasanah Sri Istiyarti Uswatun Chasanah Sri Lestari Mahmud Sri Meylanti S. Ali Suci Tilome Sugito Mahendra Imran Syafrudin, Marisa Syarif Abdullah Taulia Damayanti Usfita Kiftiyani Usman, Nunung Usman, Sri Adiningsi B. Valentika, Nina Wafa, Moh. Shohibul Widyastutifajri Nuha Yazid Rukmayadi Zaqiyah, Arfatuz