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All Journal JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Jurnal Sains Dasar PYTHAGORAS: Jurnal Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika AKSIOMA JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics MUST: Journal of Mathematics Education, Science and Technology BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) MATAPPA: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Teorema: Teori dan Riset Matematika Journal of Education Technology JURNAL SILOGISME : Kajian Ilmu Matematika dan Pembelajarannya Jambura Journal of Mathematics Jurnal Matematika UNAND Transformasi : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Matematika Jurnal Saintika Unpam : Jurnal Sains dan Matematika Unpam Mandalika Mathematics and Educations Journal ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Majalah Ilmiah Matematika dan Statistika (MIMS) Jambura Journal of Mathematics Education Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Journal of Science and Technology JES-MAT (Jurnal Edukasi dan Sains Matematika) MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Pedagogy : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika METIKS: Jurnal Teknik Mesin, Elektro, Informatika, Kelautan & Sains Research Review: Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin Pattimura International Journal of Mathematics (PIJMath) Jurnal Sintak Jurnal Multidisiplin Sahombu Jurnal Matematika Integratif Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) Bilangan: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Kebumian dan Angkasa Algoritma: Jurnal Matematika, Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Kebumian dan Angkasa Indonesian Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics
Agusyarif Rezka Nuha
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Astronomy Automotive Engineering Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Development of a Hybrid ARIMA–Fourier Series Model for Air Temperature Forecasting at the Gorontalo Climatology Station Suci Tilome; Isran K. Hasan; Agusyarif Rezka Nuha
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 01 (March 2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcosv9i1.11462

Abstract

Air temperature is a key climatic variable that reflects environmental conditions and influences various human activities. Recent observations indicate a persistent upward trend associated with global warming, leading to greater variability in climate patterns. These changes highlight the importance of forecasting methods that can accurately represent the characteristics of air temperature time series to support planning and decision-making. Reliable prediction is therefore essential for understanding climate dynamics and anticipating potential environmental impacts. This study proposes an air temperature forecasting approach using a hybrid Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Fourier Series Analysis (FSA) model. The ARIMA component is applied to model trend behavior and temporal dependence, while FSA captures the remaining seasonal patterns in the ARIMA residuals. By integrating these two approaches, the hybrid model aims to improve forecasting accuracy in the presence of both stochastic and periodic components. The results show that the hybrid ARIMA–FSA model achieves good forecasting performance, with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.56, a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.66, and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 2.07%. These findings indicate that the proposed model effectively represents air temperature dynamics and can be considered a reliable alternative for climate forecasting applications
Adaptive ANFIS–PSO Model for Forecasting Bird’s Eye Chili Prices in Gorontalo Province Nur Siyam Djibu; Isran K. Hasan; Agusyarif Rezka Nuha
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 01 (March 2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcosv9i1.11473

Abstract

Bird’s eye chili is one of the strategic food commodities in Indonesia with high price volatility and a significant contribution to food inflation, particularly in Gorontalo Province. The dynamic and nonlinear characteristics of bird’s eye chili prices often hinder accurate forecasting when using conventional methods, thereby requiring an adaptive approach capable of capturing complex data patterns. Therefore, this study applies an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) optimized using Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to improve the accuracy of bird’s eye chili price forecasting. This study utilizes daily bird’s eye chili price data in Gorontalo Province from 1 January 2019 to 31 October 2025, obtained from the National Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS). The ANFIS model is optimized using adaptive PSO to obtain optimal parameter values that address local convergence problems and parameter sensitivity commonly encountered in conventional ANFIS models. Model performance is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results indicate that the adaptive ANFIS–PSO model achieves a MAPE value of 17.4487% on the training dataset, which decreases significantly to 5.0741% on the testing dataset. The testing MAPE value below 10% demonstrates that the proposed model has excellent generalization capability in capturing bird’s eye chili price fluctuations. These findings confirm that adaptive PSO-based parameter optimization effectively enhances ANFIS performance in modelling nonlinear and highly volatile time series data. The proposed forecasting model can serve as a reliable analytical tool to support decision-making and regional food price stabilzation policies in Gorontalo Province.
Strategi pengendalian penyebaran penyakit kolera dengan vaksinasi, edukasi, dan karantina: analisis model dan simulasi Agusyarif Rezka Nuha; La Ode Nashar; Andi Agung; Bertu Rianto Takaendengan; Widyastutifajri Nuha
Mandalika Mathematics and Educations Journal Vol 7 No 4 (2025): Desember
Publisher : FKIP Universitas Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/jm.v7i4.10479

Abstract

Cholera is an infectious disease transmitted through water contaminated with Vibrio cholerae bacteria. This disease remains a public health challenge, especially in areas with poor sanitation. This study developed an SVIQR-B mathematical model to analyze the dynamics of cholera spread, taking into account the effects of quarantine, vaccination, and environmental hygiene education. The analysis was conducted on disease-free and endemic equilibrium points using a local stability approach based on the basic reproduction number (R0). The results showed that when R0 < 1 , the disease would disappear from the population, while R0 > 1 indicated the potential for endemicity. Sensitivity analysis and numerical simulation results indicate that an increase in the transmission rate and a decrease in vaccine effectiveness cause an increase in the value, while an increase in vaccination coverage and the effectiveness of education contribute to a decrease in infection rates. These findings emphasize the importance of implementing integrated medical and educational interventions in efforts to control cholera in a sustainable manner.
Penerapan Metode Six Sigma DMAIC dengan Pendekatan Failure Mode and Effect Analysis pada Produk Roti Alfitra Bakerry Ipal Rahmat Jaya; Agusyarif Rezka Nuha; La Ode Nashar
Research Review: Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin Vol. 4 No. 1 (2025): Research Review: Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin (Februari 2025 - Juli 2025)
Publisher : Transbahasa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54923/researchreview.v4i1.177

Abstract

In the era of globalization, product quality plays a crucial role in meeting consumer demands and maintaining a company's competitiveness. This study aims to identify the causes of product defects and provide improvement recommendations in the production process of Alfitra Bakery using the Six Sigma DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control) methodology combined with Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). The research was conducted through field observations and interviews at Alfitra Bakery, Gorontalo, focusing on two dominant types of defects: scorched (burnt) bread and under-expanded bread. The scorched defect was found to have a Risk Priority Number (RPN) of 490, while the under-expansion defect had an RPN of 210. The main factors contributing to scorched bread include prolonged baking time, inaccurate monitoring by workers, and manual calculation of baking time. Recommended improvements involve increasing employee supervision during baking, conducting regular briefings before production, and installing automatic timers to control baking time. Meanwhile, under-expanded bread was caused by inadequate yeast in the dough, poor employee precision, excessive fermentation time, and unstable oven temperature. Recommendations for improvement include using a measuring tool for yeast dosage, improving fermentation time management, employee training, and using ovens with automated temperature control systems. These recommendations aim to reduce defect rates and improve product quality consistency. The integration of Six Sigma and FMEA proves effective in systematically identifying and resolving quality issues in the bakery industry.
Dinamika Populas Kepiting Bakau (Scylla serrata) dengan Mempertimbangkan Sifat Kanibalisme Randy Ferdiansyah; Ismail Djakaria; Agusyarif Rezka Nuha
Research Review: Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin Vol. 4 No. 2 (2025): Research Review: Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin (Agustus 2025 - Januari 2026)
Publisher : Transbahasa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54923/researchreview.v4i2.242

Abstract

This study examines the population dynamics of mud crabs (Scylla serrata) by incorporating the biological phenomenon of cannibalism into a mathematical model. The model considers the mud crab population as consisting of two age classes, namely juvenile mud crabs and adult mud crabs. The formulation produces two equilibrium points: the extinction equilibrium E0 = (0,0), which represents the disappearance of the entire population, and the coexistence equilibrium E∗ = (CJ∗,CA∗), which indicates the persistence of both juveniles and adults. Stability analysis shows that the extinction point E0 is asymptotically stable if  α < µ2/r - µ while the coexistence point E∗ remains stable when the intrinsic growth rate α lies within the interval α > α1 and α < α2. These results emphasize that the long-term survival of the population depends on critical biological parameters. Numerical simulations further support the analytical findings by demonstrating that the abundance of mud crabs is highly sensitive to variations in growth rate, competition intensity, and predation levels. In particular, an increase in cannibalistic behavior significantly alters the balance between juvenile and adult populations, potentially leading to population decline if not moderated. The findings of this study provide useful insights into the ecological dynamics of Scylla serrata, which is a species of high economic and ecological importance in mangrove ecosystems. Furthermore, the integration of mathematical modeling and numerical simulation offers a valuable framework for understanding complex interactions in aquatic populations and may serve as a reference for sustainable management strategies in mud crab fisheries.
Analisis Dinamik Model Penularan Kolera dengan Mempertimbangkan Risiko Individu dan Intervensi Karantina Feni Elliyin; Agusyarif Rezka Nuha; La Ode Nashar
Research Review: Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026): Research Review: Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin (Februari 2026 - Juli 2026)
Publisher : Transbahasa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54923/researchreview.v5i1.325

Abstract

This study develops an SIQRB mathematical model to analyze the transmission dynamics of cholera by incorporating individual risk stratification and quarantine interventions. The model consists of six human compartments, including high- and low-risk susceptible individuals, infected individuals from each risk group, quarantined individuals, and recovered individuals, along with one environmental compartment representing the concentration of Vibrio cholerae. This framework allows a comprehensive analysis of the interaction between human populations and environmental factors in disease transmission. The stability analysis shows that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number (R₀) is less than one (R₀ < 1), and becomes unstable when R₀ exceeds one (R₀ > 1), indicating the potential for endemic conditions. Sensitivity analysis identifies the most influential parameters affecting R₀, namely the immigration rate (Λ), the environmental transmission rate (βb), and the bacterial shedding rate (ξ). These parameters significantly contribute to the increase in disease transmission. Numerical simulations confirm the analytical findings, showing that higher values of these parameters lead to increased numbers of infected individuals and higher environmental bacterial concentrations. Conversely, environmental-based control strategies—such as mobility restrictions, improved sanitation, and water disinfection—are effective in reducing R₀ below one. Therefore, this study highlights the critical importance of environmental interventions in controlling cholera transmission and preventing long-term endemicity.
Integrasi Prinsip Universal Design for Learning (UDL) Pada E-Modul Matematika Berbasis Problem-Based Learning Di Kelas VII SMP Bertu Rianto Takaendengan; Agusyarif Rezka Nuha; Taulia Damayanti; Patra Lasantu; Adib Rizal Kundju
Jambura Journal of Mathematics Education Vol 6, No 2: September 2025
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jmathedu.v6i2.36349

Abstract

The development of digital technology requires innovative teaching materials that are interactive, adaptive, and inclusive, particularly in mathematics learning, which is still dominated by conventional methods and results in low student achievement. This study aimed to develop a mathematics e-module based on Problem-Based Learning (PBL) with the integration of Universal Design for Learning (UDL) principles on ratio material for seventh-grade students. The research was conducted at SMP Negeri 1 Wonosari during the even semester of the 2024/2025 academic year using the research and development approach with the 4D model (define, design, develop, disseminate), involving experts for validation as well as teachers and students for trials. Data were collected through validation sheets, questionnaires, and learning achievement tests, and analyzed descriptively. The results showed that the developed e-module met the feasibility criteria with an average of 86.75% (Good category) and was rated very practical with a score of 88% by teachers and students. The limitation of this study lies in its narrow scope; therefore, further research is recommended to involve broader materials and diverse school contexts. This study confirms that the integration of PBL and UDL in e-modules can serve as an innovative alternative to support mathematics learning that is more interactive, contextual, and inclusive.
KOMBINASI ALGORITMA KRIPTOGRAFI RC6 DAN STEGANOGRAFI LSB UNTUK PENGAMANAN PESAN TEKS Ferawati Kai; Agusyarif Rezka Nuha; Asriadi Asriadi; Hasan S. Panigoro; Nisky Imansyah Yahya; Armayani Arsal
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 13 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

The rapid advancement of technology has led to various types of technological crimes. One solution to secure messages is by using cryptographic and steganographic techniques. This research combined the Rivest Code 6 (RC6) cryptographic algorithm and the Least Significant Bit (LSB) steganographic algorithm to enhance message security. The study analyzed changes in an image embedded with a message and sent through applications such a WhatsApp, Telegram, and E-mail. The final result show that the image embedded with the message does not undergo significant changes. However, stego images sent directly via WhatsApp and Telegram experience size alterations, which cause the embedded messages to become corrupted. Meanwhile, stego images sent as documents retain their size, allowing the message to remain intact. Additionally, stego images sent via E-mail, either as attachments or directly, do not experience size changes, and the embedded messages can be fully retrieved.
Perbandingan Metode Dekomposisi Multiplikatif dan Metode Prophet dalam Meramalkan Nilai Tukar USD ke Rupiah Mohammad Dwitiar Nalole; Agusyarif Rezka Nuha; La Ode Nashar; Novianita Achmad; Asriadi Asriadi
Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Vol 8, No 1 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Sebelas Maret

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/ijas.v8i1.96572

Abstract

Nilai tukar antara USD dan Rupiah memiliki dampak signifikan terhadap perekonomian Indonesia, sehingga peramalan yang akurat menjadi sangat penting dalam pengambilan keputusan ekonomi. Penelitian ini membandingkan metode Dekomposisi Multiplikatif dan metode Prophet dalam meramalkan nilai tukar USD terhadap Rupiah. Data nilai tukar bulanan dari tahun 2018 hingga 2023 digunakan, dengan 80% sebagai data pelatihan dan 20% sebagai data pengujian. Model akhir untuk metode Dekomposisi Multiplikatif menggabungkan komponen tren, musiman, dan siklus secara multiplikatif, sehingga memungkinkan representasi perilaku nilai tukar yang lebih rinci dari waktu ke waktu. Sebaliknya, metode Prophet menghasilkan model akhir yang menggabungkan komponen tren dan musiman secara aditif, serta mampu mengakomodasi perubahan tren secara dinamis melalui deteksi otomatis terhadap changepoints. Akurasi kedua metode dievaluasi menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Hasil menunjukkan bahwa metode Dekomposisi Multiplikatif memiliki nilai MAPE sebesar 1,21%, sedangkan metode Prophet memiliki nilai MAPE sebesar 5,43%. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa metode Dekomposisi Multiplikatif lebih akurat dalam meramalkan nilai tukar untuk periode yang diberikan, sehingga lebih sesuai untuk dataset ini yang menunjukkan pola musiman yang kuat.Kata kunci: Nilai Tukar; Peramalan; Dekomposisi Multiplikatif; Prophet; MAPE.The exchange rate between USD and Rupiah has a significant impact on Indonesia's economy, making accurate forecasting essential for economic decision-making. This study compares the Multiplicative Decomposition method and the Prophet method in forecasting the USD to Rupiah exchange rate. Monthly exchange rate data from 2018 to 2023 was used, with an 80% training set and a 20% test set. The final model for the Multiplicative Decomposition method combines the trend, seasonal, and cycle components multiplicatively, allowing for a detailed representation of the exchange rate's behavior over time. In contrast, the Prophet method produces a final model that incorporates trend and seasonal components additively, while also accommodating dynamic changes in the trend through automatic detection of changepoints.. The accuracy of both methods was evaluated using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Results show that the Multiplicative Decomposition method had a MAPE of 1.21%, while the Prophet method had a MAPE of 5.43%. These findings indicate that the Multiplicative Decomposition method is more accurate in forecasting the exchange rate for the given period, making it more suitable for this dataset, which exhibits strong seasonal patterns.Keywords: Exchange rate; forecasting; Multiplicative Decomposition; Prophet; MAPE.
Calculation of Annual Premiums and Premium Reserves for Endowment Joint Life Insurance Based on Stochastic Interest Rates Using the Monte Carlo Method Bela Cintiya Samwan; Agusyarif Rezka Nuha; Armayani Arsal; Emli Rahmi; La Ode Nashar
Jurnal Multidisiplin Sahombu Vol. 6 No. 01 (2026): Jurnal Multidisiplin Sahombu, January 2026
Publisher : Sean Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

This study examines the determination of annual premiums and premium reserves for an endowment joint life insurance product by incorporating interest rate uncertainty through the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) stochastic model and Monte Carlo simulation. The Indonesian Mortality Table 2023 is used to compute joint survival probabilities for the three insured individuals, while the CIR parameters are estimated from historical interest rate data for the period 2020-2024. The present value of benefits and annuities is calculated along each simulated path, enabling the premium and premium reserves to be evaluated prospectively based on fluctuating interest rate dynamics. The results show that the magnitude of premiums and reserves is influenced by the initial ages of the insured, the mortality structure, the sum assured, and the variability of the simulated interest rates. At the beginning of the contract, all scenarios produce negative reserves because accumulated premiums are still insufficient to cover the expected present value of benefits. However, the reserves increase steadily over time and turn positive toward the end of the insurance term. These findings indicate that the Monte Carlo approach based on the CIR model provides a more adaptive and realistic representation of premium and reserve behavior compared with deterministic methods, thereby supporting more accurate financial risk assessment for insurance companies.
Co-Authors Abdul, Nur Safitri Abubakar, Agung Sucipto Adib Rizal Kundju Agung, Andi Aliwu, Randa Resvitasari Ana Nadiyyah Andi Agung Andi Agung Anggraini, Fitriana Anissa Dwi Wijayanti Aprina Manggarai Armayani Arsal Armayani Arsal Armayani Arsal Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Asriadi Aswata Wisnuadji Bela Cintiya Samwan Bertu Rianto Takaendengan Biga, Azril Saputra Cabelita Husuna Chasanah, Sri Istiyarti Uswatun Dewi Rahmawaty Isa Djibran, Fahrudin Djihad Wungguli Djuma, Clara Anggriani Eko Sulistyono Sulistyono Fajar Putrawan Djabar Fajri Ikhsan Feni Elliyin Ferawati Kai Ferawati Mardjun Franky Alfrits Oroh Ghivahri Sidik Mokoagow Hasan S. Panigoro Hasan S. Panigoro Hasan, Riyanto Hendri, Excel Muhammad Hinelo, Ikrar Prasetyo Ibrahim, Novita Ipal Rahmat Jaya Ismail Djakaria Isran K Hasan Janna, Miftahul K. Nasib, Salmun Kasim, Ranan La Ode Nashar La Ode Nashar La Ode Nashar Lailany Yahya Lailany Yahya Laita, Nazrilla Hasan Lindrawati Abdjul Mahmud, Sri Lestari Majid Majid Melasarah Deswita Rahmadi Miftahul Huda Moh Dody Afandi Rauf Mohamad, Regina Mohammad Dwitiar Nalole Muhammad Ikhlas Muhammad Rifai Katili Muhammad Yahya Ayyasy Mutmaina D. Maku Nento, Abdul Djabar Nina Valentika Nisky Imansyah Yahya Nisky Imansyah Yahya Nisky Imansyah Yahya Novianita Achmad Nur Siyam Djibu NUR ’AIN SUPU Nursiya Bito Nurwan Nurwan Nurwan Nurwan NURWAN NURWAN Nurwan, Nurwan Pakaya, Revandi S. Patra Lasantu Perry Zakaria Rahman, Gusti Arviana Rahmi, Emli Randy Ferdiansyah Rasmawati Rasmawati Rasyid, Kamelia Rauf, Moh Dody Afandi Resmawan Resmawan Rozikin, Muhammad Rusniwati S. Imran Salmun K. Nasib Saltina, Saltina Sari, Lia Nanda Sidik Susilo Sigar, Leidi Siti Nurmardia Abdussamad Siti Nurmardia Abdussamad Sri Istiyarti Uswatun Chasanah Sri Istiyarti Uswatun Chasanah Sri Lestari Mahmud Sri Meylanti S. Ali Suci Tilome Sugito Mahendra Imran Syafrudin, Marisa Syarif Abdullah Taulia Damayanti Usfita Kiftiyani Usman, Nunung Usman, Sri Adiningsi B. Valentika, Nina Wafa, Moh. Shohibul Widyastutifajri Nuha Yazid Rukmayadi Zaqiyah, Arfatuz