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Harsyiah, Lisa
Program Studi Matematika, FMIPA, Universitas Mataram
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Journal : Semeton Mathematics Journal

 1 
Optimalisasi Parameter Double Exponential Smoothing menggunakan Metode Golden Section pada Peramalan Harga Saham Penutupan PT. Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Zulhan Widya Baskara; Tajalli, Halawatun; Harsyiah, Lisa; Baskara, Zulhan Widya
Semeton Mathematics Journal Vol 1 No 1 (2024): April
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/semeton.v1i1.205

Abstract

The process of predicting an event in the future is called forecasting. A forecasting model that functions to predict time series data with a trend pattern is Double Exponential Smoothing (DES). This study aims to compare one-parameter Brown DES with two-parameter Holt DES using the golden section method. The data used is monthly data on closing share prices of PT. Telkom Indonesia (Persero) for the period January 2011 - December 2021. Golden Section is an optimization method for finding parameter values that minimize the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) function. The results of calculating the optimum parameter values for DES Brown α=0.420766 with a MAPE value of 4.871787804% and for DES Holt α=0.506578 and β=0.458980 with a MAPE value of 4.7233301647%. According to the MAPE value, the models used are very accurate for forecasting. DES Holt was selected as the best model for forecasting based on the smallest MAPE value.
Pengendalian Kualitas Produksi Air Minum Dalam Kemasan Menggunakan Peta Kendali Zulhan Widya Baskara; Halifatunnisa, Nur; Baskara, Zulhan Widya; Harsyiah, Lisa
Semeton Mathematics Journal Vol 1 No 2 (2024): Oktober
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/semeton.v1i2.239

Abstract

The most popular drinking water product produced by PT.X is the 220 ml glass packaging product. This product experienced the most production defects at 0.086% of total production. Based on observations that have been made, there are several problems that cause defective products, such as damaged packaging and poor water quality. So PT.X in maintaining production quality must improve the process of maintaining quality control. The aim of this research is in line with the problems faced by PT.X, namely controlling the quality of bottled drinking water using a decision on belief control chart. Control charts are used to monitor whether product defect data is statistically controlled or not. One of the control charts used to monitor whether product defect data is statistically controlled or not is the Decision on Belief control chart, because the Decision on Belief control chart is more sensitive to data shifts so that faster in detecting data that goes outside control limits or is out of control. Based on the graph of the results of the decision on belief control chart, of the 25 data there are 24 data that are out of the upper control limit and the lower control limit, meaning that the decision on belief control chart is sensitive to data shifts in detecting out of control data. Based on the results of the average run length calculation, it is concluded that the decision on belief control chart is weak in detecting out of control data because the shift value obtained is getting bigger.
Pemodelan Angka Kematian Ibu (AKI) Di Indonesia Menggunakan Mixed Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) Lawwamah, Tamsilul; Harsyiah, Lisa; Aini, Qurratul
Semeton Mathematics Journal Vol 1 No 2 (2024): Oktober
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/semeton.v1i2.241

Abstract

Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) is on of the targets for a  achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The aim of this research is to find the right model for estimating MMR and to look at the factors that influence MMR in Indonesia. Estimation were carried out using the Mixed Geographically Weigthed Regression (MGWR) model. The MGWR model is a combination of GWR and linear regression with variables that  having influence locally and some globally. The results obtained are that the MGWR model is superior the GWR model, because  the smallest AIC value for MGWR is 463,0564. Factors that have significant influence using the adaptive Gaussian kernel weighting are postpartum mothers (x4) , postpartum mothers receiving vitamin A (x5), giving Fe3 tablets to pregnant women (x6) ,  and handling obstetric complications (x7).
Pengendalian Kualitas Produk Spon Kasur Menggunakan Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (Ewma) pada UD. Celcius Gegutu Timur Lingking, Fransiska Prisilia; Harsyiah, Lisa; Sulistyowati, Emmy Dyah; Asri, Adis Tia Juli Agil
Semeton Mathematics Journal Vol 2 No 1 (2025): April
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/semeton.v2i1.273

Abstract

Problems that arise at UD. Celsius, one of the manufacturers of sponge mattress products in the East Gegutu area, said that differences in product weight will cause a decrease in product quality. Consequently, here, quality is of primary concern. Because the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control chart can detect small average changes, this study aims to examine the quality control of mattress sponge products using this chart. The information used relates to the mass of a mattress sponge product measuring 160×120×25 cm, with four variables, namely X_1,X_2,X_3 and X_4, Quality control in this research uses a weighting factor value of  = 0.4. Based on the research results, the assumption that is not fulfilled is the assumption of data randomness, so that the EWMA control chart pattern formed shows that the data is not statistically controlled. However, there is no data that is out of control, so in this study the Average Run Length (ARL) value of 27,204 indicates that there will be data that is first out of control, namely the 27th or 28th data. And the results of the capability analysis of the process show that the production process is not capable because the values of Cp=0.3432 and Cpk=0.3373 where the values of Cp,Cpk<1, this is due to the influencing factors, namely man, machine, material and method factors.
Peramalan Produksi Kedelai di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat menggunakan Model Grey-Markov (1,1) Nurmaulia, Ananda Rizantia; Harsyiah, Lisa; Purnamasari, Nur Asmita; Jurniati, Jurniati
Semeton Mathematics Journal Vol 2 No 2 (2025): Oktober
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/semeton.v2i2.314

Abstract

The continuously increasing soybean imports are caused by the imblance in domestic soybean produstion. This indicates that nationalsoybean self-sufficiensy has not yet been achieved, as many soybean farmlands have now been converted to other commodities. This condition occurs in West Nusa Tenggara, Which is one of Indonesia’s nationalsoybean production centers. To understand future soybean production conditions, forecasting future soybean production in West Nusa Tenggara province using the grey_markov (1, 1) model. This model only requires minimal data for forecasting, which aligns with the limites research data available. The data used in this study is soybean production data from West Nusa Tenggara province. The research results show that in 2022, soybean production in West Nusa Tenggara province will decline, with the prediction demonstrating good accuracy as indicated by a MAPE value of 15.75%.
Pengendalian Kualitas Produksi Air Minum dalam Kemasan (AMDK) Menggunakan Diagram Kendali MCUSUM dan MEWMA Zulhan Widya Baskara; Sari, Kurnia Mahraini Kartika; Harsyiah, Lisa; Baskara, Zulhan Widya
Semeton Mathematics Journal Vol 2 No 2 (2025): Oktober
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/semeton.v2i2.324

Abstract

Quality control in the water production process at PT. X is an essential activity to ensure the quality of packaged drinking water (AMDK) is fit for consumption. Therefore, the water quality of PT. X production must always be closely monitored. To guarantee the safety of drinking water, it must meet microbiological, radioactive, Physical, and chemical requirements according to the regulations stipulated in the Indonesian Ministry of Health Regulation Number 2 of 2023. Quality control is performed using MEWMA and MCUSUM control charts since these control charts can detect shifts in the process mean. The results of applying MCUSUM and MEWMA control charts indicate that the water production quality is statistically out of control. After monitoring, it was found that PH is the most influential variable causing out-of-control situations. An ARL test was conducted to obtain a control chart with the best performance, where a smaller ARL value indicates better sensitivity in detecting shifts in the process mean. The MCUSUM control chart outperforms the MEWMA control chart, with an ARL value of  and parameters  and , compared to ARL MEWMA of with weighting parameter  and .
Co-Authors Abdurahim, Abdurahim Adis Tia Juli Agil Asri Adis Tia Juli Agil Asri Agus Kurnia Alfarez, Dzaki Ade Angelina Ardania, Azrianti Asri, Adis Tia Juli Agil Astuti, Lita Attina Ulansari Auladi, Muhammad Yuzaul Azrianti Ardania Baskara, Zulhan Dara Puspita Anggraeni Dede Saputra Desy Komalasari Dewa Nyoman Adi Paramartha Dina Eka Putri Dina Eka Putri Eka Putri, Dina Emmy Dyah Sulistiowati Emmy Dyah Sulistyowati Emmy Dyah Sulistyowati, Emmy Dyah Evita, Isma Fadhilah, Rifdah Fadillah, Muhammad Fara Fid Fariha, Mawaddatul Graha, Syifa Salsabila Satya Hafizah Ilma Halifatunnisa, Nur Helmina Andriani Hidayatullah, Azka Fariz Hidayatullah, Azka Farris Hisan, Khairatun Inarah, Filzah Istiqamah, Istiqamah Jihan Melani Jurnal Pepadu Jurniati, Jurniati Lailatul Pahmi Lailia Awalushaumi, Lailia Lawwamah, Tamsilul Lilik Hidayati, Lilik Lingking, Fransiska Prisilia Lisa , Harsyiah Luzianawati, Luzianawati M. Naoval Husni M. Syahrul Maharani, Andika Ellena Saufika Hakim Marwan Marwan Meliyana, Hesti Muhammad Rijal Alfian Mustika Hadijati Navisah, Navisah Ningrum, Salsabila Hadi Putri Nirwanto Nirwanto, Nirwanto Nur Asmita Purnamasari Nurmaulia, Ananda Rizantia Nurul Fitriyani Nurul Fitriyani PURNAMASARI, NUR ASMITA Putri, Syaftirridho Qabul Dinanta Utama Qudsi, Jihadil Qurratul Aini Ramadhan, Hikmal Maulana Ramdhani, Triana Putri Ranti, Ketrin Jupina Rifdah Fadhilah Rio Satriyantara Rizki Fitri Ananda Robbaniyyah, Nuzla Af'idatur Robbaniyyah, Nuzla Af’idatur Sabina, Sabna Zulfaa Salwa Salwa Salwa Salwa Saputra, Dede Saputri, Intan Editia Sari, Baiq Desi Nurma Sari, Kurnia Mahraini Kartika Setiawana, Ena Sulpaiyah Sulpaiyah Syaftirridho Putri Syamsul Bahri Syamsul Bahri Tajalli, Halawatun Tri Maryono Rusadi Vidya Atika Ramdani Yarti, Suwindah Puji Yuliana Lestari Zindawi, M. Daffa Rizki Zulhan Widya Baskara