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All Journal International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering IJCCS (Indonesian Journal of Computing and Cybernetics Systems) Seminar Nasional Aplikasi Teknologi Informasi (SNATI) JURNAL SISTEM INFORMASI BISNIS Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Elektro Komputer dan Informatika (JITEKI) Jurnal Computech & Bisnis (e-Journal) Jurnas Nasional Teknologi dan Sistem Informasi Jurnal CoreIT Informatics for Educators and Professional : Journal of Informatics Matrix : Jurnal Manajemen Teknologi dan Informatika IJIS - Indonesian Journal On Information System Dinamisia: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Conference SENATIK STT Adisutjipto Yogyakarta International Journal of New Media Technology Jurnal ULTIMA InfoSys Jurnal ULTIMATICS MATRIK : Jurnal Manajemen, Teknik Informatika, dan Rekayasa Komputer Creative Research Journal IJISTECH (International Journal Of Information System & Technology) KOMPUTIKA - Jurnal Sistem Komputer KOMPUTA : Jurnal Ilmiah Komputer dan Informatika Majalah Ilmiah UNIKOM Jurnal Teknologi dan Informasi Jurnal Abdimas PHB : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Progresif Humanis Brainstorming Jurnal Tata Kelola dan Kerangka Kerja Teknologi Informasi Indonesian Community Service and Empowerment Journal (IComSE) IJISTECH International Journal of Informatics, Information System and Computer Engineering (INJIISCOM) International Journal of Research and Applied Technology (INJURATECH) Abdi Teknoyasa Jurnal Pengabdian Teknik dan Ilmu Komputer (PETIK) Prosiding SEMNAS INOTEK (Seminar Nasional Inovasi Teknologi) Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Tekno INFOKOM
Irawan Afrianto
Universitas Komputer Indonesia
Aerospace Engineering Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Automotive Engineering Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Indonesian Oil and Gas Export Data Forecasting Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Exponential Triple Smoothing Methods Kurniawan, Deni; Afrianto, Irawan
International Journal of Research and Applied Technology (INJURATECH) Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): December 2025
Publisher : Universitas Komputer Indonesia

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Abstract

This study analysed historical data movement patterns and forecasted the value of oil and gas exports for the next 12 periods. The data obtained was secondary data in the form of monthly time series for the period (2021–2025). A time series is a series of observations of a variable that occur in relation to the time of its occurrence, while time series data is data collected over a specific time period. The analysis method used was the Box-Jenkins method or Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with the help of R software. The model obtained through the stages of model identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic testing was then used to project the data. The best model was selected based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value and valid parameter significance tests. The forecast results for 2026 show a trend that tends to be constant or flat following the latest data level, with a confidence interval that widens as the time period increases. This indicates that the value of oil and gas exports is predicted to be stable but carries a high risk of uncertainty in the future, thus requiring adaptive policy anticipation to address market volatility.
Co-Authors Abdul Razak, Rizky Septiana adang badru jaman,anggun fergina, adang badru jaman,anggun fergina Agustia, Richi Dwi Al Husaeni, Dwi Novia Alif Finandhita Ana Hadiana Andri Heryandi Andri Heryandi Andri Heryandi Andry Maulana Awaludin Angga Setiyadi Anisyah, Ani Arinten Dewi Hidayat Asali, Frans Fernando Atin, S Atin, Sufa Bisulthon, Ibrahim Danial Bobi Kurniawan, Bobi Dedeng Hirawan Dedeng Hirawan, Dedeng Deni Kurniawan, Deni Derry Berni Cahyady Devy Normalasari Diana Effendi Dwi Agustia, Richi Dwiguna Sumitra, Irfan Eddy Prasetyo Nugroho Edwin Fajar Nurdiansyah Egi Cahyo Prabowo Eko Budi Setiawan Elisabet Nila S. C. P Estiko Rijanto Fazri Muhamad Kurnia Finadhita, Alif Finandhita, Alif Firdaus Musyafi Furqon, Rifan Muhammad Hanhan Maulana Harjono, Risqi Windu Heryandi, Andri Irfan Dwiguna Saputra Irmayanti, Hani Janivita Joto Sudirman Joto Sudirman, Janivita Jundurrahmaan, Irham Lia Warlina M Wisnu Hidayatulloh Maulana Awaludin, Andri Maulana, Hanhan Mouhamad Hatta Hiroshi Sasmita Muhammad Fahmi Irfan Muhammad Ilham Budiawan Muhammad Yanuar, Eko Mutia, S Nizar Rabbi Radliya Nurhikmah Taliasih Piantari, Erna Putra Hilmana, Primarazaq Noorshalih Rafdhi, A A Raju Riyanda Rakhmanuddin, Iid Ramadhan Wijanarko Resviani, Devi Richi Dwi Agustia Rini Nuraini Sukmana Rizki, Ikhsan Nurul Setiyadi, Angga Sri Nurhayati Sufa Atin Sufa Atin Sufa Atin Sufa'atin Sufa’atin Sufa’atin Sumitra, Irfan Dwiguna Suryana, Taryana Suseno, Taufiq Rizky Darmawan Taryana Suryana Widayanti, A Yanuar, Eko Muhammad Yanyan Herdiansyah Yasmi Afrizal Yatawa, H S Yulistian Suryono