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All Journal JEPA (Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis) BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JURNAL PENDIDIKAN TAMBUSAI Jurnal Pengabdian Magister Pendidikan IPA Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Kelautan dan Perikanan Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik InPrime: Indonesian Journal Of Pure And Applied Mathematics Kolaborasi Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat ANWARUL: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Dakwah Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Nanggroe: Journal Of Scholarly Service Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin Amsir Nanggroe: Journal of Scholarly Service PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON DATA SCIENCE AND OFFICIAL STATISTICS Jurnal Pendidikan Guru Madrasah Ibtidaiyah Al-Amin Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Economic and Finance in Indonesia MERDEKA: Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Tarqiyatuna: Jurnal Pendidikan Agama Islam dan Madrasah Ibtidaiyah Jurnal Miftahul Ilmi: Jurnal Pendidikan Agama Islam

Neli Agustina

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Author-ID : 222004

Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Neuroscience Nursing Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Analisis Kinerja Ekspor Tuna Sirip Kuning Indonesia di Negara Nontradisional Syifaulhaq, Annisa; Agustina, Neli
Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Kelautan dan Perikanan Vol 20, No 1 (2025): JUNI 2025
Publisher : Balai Besar Riset Sosial Eonomi Kelautan dan Perikanan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15578/jsekp.v20i1.16248

Pada tahun 2021, nilai ekspor tuna sirip kuning Indonesia mencapai USD 5,179 juta, menjadikannya komoditas tuna dengan nilai ekspor tertinggi di antara lima jenis tuna yang diperdagangkan secara global. Namun demikian, masih terdapat sejumlah tantangan, seperti penurunan volume ekspor, terpusatnya pasar pada beberapa negara utama, serta melemahnya daya saing di pasar tradisional. Oleh karena itu, perlu dilakukan perluasan pasar ekspor ke negara-negara nontradisional. Penelitian ini menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi volume ekspor tuna sirip kuning Indonesia ke pasar tersebut dengan menggunakan data panel periode 2016–2021 dari UN Comtrade dan World Bank, mencakup sepuluh negara tujuan nontradisional: Britania Raya, Italia, Vietnam, Tiongkok, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Filipina, Singapura, Uni Emirat Arab, dan Australia. Analisis dilakukan dengan regresi data panel menggunakan pendekatan Random Effect Model (REM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa harga ekspor tuna sirip kuning Indonesia dan harga pesaing berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap volume ekspor, sedangkan indeks Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) dan nilai tukar berpengaruh positif. Sementara itu, variabel jarak ekonomi tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa daya saing merupakan faktor utama dalam peningkatan kinerja ekspor tuna sirip kuning Indonesia. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan upaya menjaga stabilitas harga melalui pengendalian pasokan dan biaya produksi, peningkatan mutu dan pemenuhan standar internasional, serta penguatan kerja sama perdagangan dengan negara nontradisional untuk mengurangi hambatan tarif dan nontarif.Title: Export Performance Analysis of Indonesian Yellowfin Tuna in Nontraditional Countries In 2021, Indonesia’s yellowfin tuna exports reached a value of USD 5.179 million, making it the highest among the five tuna species traded internationally. However, several challenges persist, including a declining export volume, concentration in a few destination countries, and weakening competitiveness in major markets. To address this, expanding exports to nontraditional countries has become essential. This study analyzes the determinants influencing Indonesia’s yellowfin tuna export volume to such emerging markets. Panel data covering 2016–2021 from UN Comtrade and the World Bank were employed, encompassing ten nontraditional destinations: the United Kingdom, Italy, Vietnam, China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, and Australia. Using a Random Effects Model (REM), the results indicate that both Indonesia’s export price and competitors’ prices have a significant negative effect, while the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index and the exchange rate positively affect export volume. Conversely, economic distance shows no significant impact. These findings highlight that competitiveness is a key driver of Indonesia’s yellowfin tuna export performance. Therefore, maintaining price stability through supply and production cost management, improving quality and international standard compliance, and strengthening trade partnerships with nontraditional markets are recommended to reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers and enhance long-term export sustainability.

PERBANDINGAN MODEL ARIMA DAN ANALISIS TREN DALAM PERAMALAN PRODUKSI GULA DI INDONESIA MENUJU SWASEMBADA GULA 2028 Irawan, Sintya Riagusty Dzakiyyah; Raihan, Muhammad; Pebriantini, Ni Ketut; Agustina, Neli
Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian dan Agribisnis Vol. 9 No. 4 (2025)
Publisher : Department of Agricultural Social Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Brawijaya University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/

Seiring meningkatnya jumlah penduduk kebutuhan bahan pokok seperti gula turut meningkat. Namun, konsumsi gula yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan produksi nasional menciptakan ketidakseimbangan antara produksi dan konsumsi gula. Untuk mengatasi masalah ini, pemerintah menargetkan swasembada gula pada tahun 2028. Penelitian ini bertujuan meramalkan data produksi apakah target tersebut dapat tercapai dengan membandingkan metode peramalan stokastik model ARIMA dan metode deterministik menggunakan analisis tren. Data yang digunakan mencakup 58 periode dari tahun 1967 hingga 2024, bersumber dari Statistik Perkebunan Kementerian Pertanian. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model terbaik dari ARIMA adalah ARIMA(9,1,9), sedangkan analisis tren menunjukkan bahwa model tren kuadratik adalah model terbaik berdasarkan nilai R-squared dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Berdasarkan hasil peramalan menunjukkan bahwa produksi gula pada tahun 2028, baik dengan ARIMA(9,1,9) maupun tren kuadratik menunjukkan masih berada di bawah proyeksi kebutuhan konsumsi gula nasional sebesar 3,075 ton. Hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa swasembada gula pada tahun 2028 belum dapat terwujud.

Desentralisasi Fiskal, Tax Effort dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi: Studi Empirik Kabupaten/Kota di Indonesia 2001-2008 Priyarsono, D. S.; Budiasih, Budiasih; Agustina, Neli
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol. 11, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Indonesia has implemented a new policy of regional autonomy and fiscal decentralization for almost ten years. One of the objectives of this fiscal decentralization is to give the full autonomy to local governments in spending and managing their revenues. The local governments have the authority to explore and collect their own-source revenue ('Pendapatan Asli Daerah', or PAD), i.e. through the improvement of their tax effort. The objectives of this study are: (i) to describe the fiscal performance of districts and municipalities in Indonesia, both in the revenue as well as the expenditure sides, (ii) to analyze the effects of intergovernmental transfers ('dana perimbangan', or balancing fund from the central to regional governments) on regional tax efforts, and (iii) to identify the regional economic growth elasticity of intergovernmental transfers and own-source revenue. This study employs a panel datasetof 336 districts and municipalities covering the whole area of Indonesia over the time period of 2001-2008. The results show a relatively low contribution of PAD to regional revenues, indicating high fiscal dependency of regional govemments on the central government. Intergovernmental transfers positively effect tax efforts. The re·sult of the elasticity analysis also indicates a positive role of the transfers as stimuli to economic growth.

Shadow Economy Estimation Across ASEAN Member States: MIMIC Model Approach Al Agung, Ahmad Nadifa; Agustina, Neli
Proceedings of The International Conference on Data Science and Official Statistics Vol. 2025 No. 1 (2025): Proceedings of 2025 International Conference on Data Science and Official St
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/icdsos.v2025i1.578

As a measure of official output, GDP remains incomplete, omitting the substantial economic transactions that occur within the shadow economy. The shadow economy reduces government tax revenues and weakens fiscal capacity. It also contributes to the underestimation of macroeconomic indicators. This study estimates the size of the shadow economy in ASEAN member states (AMS) using the Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model. The model employs three causal variables and two indicator variables to capture the latent construct. Inflation, unemployment rate, and GDP per capita growth are identified as the main causal determinants. Economic growth and M2 growth are validated as significant indicators constructed for the shadow economy. The estimation covers the period from 2000 to 2023 and reveals an upward trend in the shadow economy across ten AMS, with an average size of 37.75 percent of GDP. These findings emphasize the need for policy actions that focus on maintaining price stability, promoting inclusive economic growth, and expanding formal employment opportunities to mitigate the expansion of the shadow economy.

Perbandingan ARMA dan Single Exponential Smoothing pada Peramalan Harga Ayam Broiler di Jawa Barat Sabastya, Alfian; Simbolon, Ani Ngalemisa; Fatimatuzzuhra; Agustina, Neli
Jurnal Ilmiah Multidisiplin Amsir Vol. 3 No. 1 (2024): Desember
Publisher : AhInstitute of Research and Community Service (LP2M) Institute of Social Sciences and Business Andi Sapada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62861/jimat.v3i1.855

Fluctuations in broiler chicken prices require farmers to predict prices to plan production and optimize business profits. This study aims to predict broiler chicken prices in West Java to help farmers plan their budgets and business income. This study compares the accuracy of the ARMA (Autoregressive Moving Average) model with the Single Exponential Smoothing method in predicting broiler chicken prices in the West Java region. The results show that the ARMA (0.1) model has the best performance with the smallest measurement error rate, namely MAPE 4.48, MSE 49.27, and RMSE 2427.38. The price prediction for January 2025 is 35,043.63. These results are expected to help farmers in budget planning and improve business efficiency.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62861/jimat.v3i1.872

Peran Guru dalam Mengembangkan Interaksi Sosial Anak Autis di SDN Kunciran 07 Septy Nurfadhillah; Nadia Nurrohmah; Defi Prasasti; Ulia Uswatun; Fitri Maulida; Sarah As-Sikah; Neli Agustina; Syifa Fauziah El-Abida
ANWARUL Vol 1 No 1 (2021): ANWARUL: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Dakwah
Publisher : Lembaga Yasin AlSys

The purpose of this study was to obtain information about the role of classroom teachers and special assistant teachers in dealing with students with autism disorders in elementary schools. As well as to describe the characteristics of children with autism and how the active role of parents and teachers in improving communication skills and social interaction of children with autism. This study used a qualitative approach with descriptive techniques. Data was collected using observation, interview, and documentation techniques. This research uses data analysis model of Miles and Huberman, where the researcher conducts data collection, data reduction, data presentation and data verification. Checking the validity of the data using data triangulation which is done by combining and comparing data from observations with data from interviews and documentation. The data obtained were analyzed by descriptive qualitative data analysis techniques and using triangulation techniques to check the validity of the data. The results of this study indicate that there is a significant relationship between the active role of parents and school teachers in improving children's communication and social interaction skills. What is very important given to children is the acceptance of parents towards children and the social support provided by parents and teachers in the environment around children. The conclusion of this study is that children with autism require very complex treatment and require the participation and active role of parents and teachers in many matters related to the development of communication and social interaction of children.

Co-Authors Agustinningtyas, Diska Ahdiyaty Rahmi A. Suaib Aisyah Bintang Al Agung, Ahmad Nadifa Ali Mutafi Alia, Fitri Anggun Anggun, Anggun Arif Rahman Arifa, Ziida Asshidiq, Isna Aissatussiri Bagus Dwi Hari Setyono Baiq Dinda Inges Mutiara Hati Budi Asih Budiasih Budiasih Chaterina Dwi Puspita Defi Prasasti Dhika Aulia Yusram Dominicus Savio Priyarsono Dyah Nur Isnaini Fatimatuzzuhra Fatkhurrohman Fatkhurrohman Faujan, La Ode febriyanti febriyanti Fitri Maulida Gampar, Yohanes Apriyano Hadisumarno, Rieska Hayati, Lia Aulia Huliatunisa, Yayah Hutajulu, Ronald Ilma Ainun Fitriana Irawan, Sintya Riagusty Dzakiyyah Izzatul Fitriani Junaidah, Emy Khabiburrochman, Adam Kharistia Capriati Lestari, Simping Puji Mahfiroh, Nailil Mangiwa, Romario Desouza Daniel Martha Zalukhu Mutiara Sinaga, Vhania Mutmainah, Arifatul Muzaki, Fais Nadia Nurrohmah Nova Aji Saputra Oktavia, Anisa Pebriantini, Ni Ketut Prawesty Dian Utami Prihatin, Siti Prilistiana, Indi Rahmat, Ervan Nur Raihan, Muhammad Resky Amelia Robert Kurniawan, Robert Sabastya, Alfian Sarah As-Sikah Sari, Seli Delima Septy Nurfadhillah Setiyo, Ulfan Simbolon, Ani Ngalemisa Siregar, Revina Solihin, Rahmat Soraya, Rani Surahman, Fikri Suroyo, Sigit Adhi Syahrul Huda, Muhammad Reza Syifa Fauziah El-Abida Syifaulhaq, Annisa Triawan, Adis Ulia Uswatun

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