Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2021 - 2026
11.142
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal IAES International Journal of Artificial Intelligence (IJ-AI) Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics Jurnal Informatika Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer Jurnal Edukasi dan Penelitian Informatika (JEPIN) POSITIF Sistemasi: Jurnal Sistem Informasi Jurnal ELTIKOM : Jurnal Teknik Elektro, Teknologi Informasi dan Komputer JOIV : International Journal on Informatics Visualization Jurnal RESTI (Rekayasa Sistem dan Teknologi Informasi) Jurnal Pendidikan UNIGA Jurnal Ilmiah Universitas Batanghari Jambi Kinetik: Game Technology, Information System, Computer Network, Computing, Electronics, and Control INOVTEK Polbeng - Seri Informatika IJIS - Indonesian Journal On Information System Sebatik ILKOM Jurnal Ilmiah INTECOMS: Journal of Information Technology and Computer Science Jiko (Jurnal Informatika dan komputer) IJISTECH (International Journal Of Information System & Technology) JIPI (Jurnal Ilmiah Penelitian dan Pembelajaran Informatika) EDUMATIC: Jurnal Pendidikan Informatika METIK JURNAL Jurnal Manajemen Informatika dan Sistem Informasi Journal of Information Systems and Informatics Jurnal JTIK (Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi) JATI (Jurnal Mahasiswa Teknik Informatika) PRAJA: Jurnal Ilmiah Pemerintahan Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science JTIULM (Jurnal Teknologi Informasi Universitas Lambung Mangkurat) Jurnal Informa: Jurnal Penelitian dan Pengabdian Masyarakat Pilar Teknologi : Jurnal Penelitian Ilmu-ilmu Teknik Jurnal Teknik Informatika (JUTIF) JiTEKH (Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Harapan) Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer (JEECOM) IJISTECH Jurnal FASILKOM (teknologi inFormASi dan ILmu KOMputer) Jurnal Computer Science and Information Technology (CoSciTech) Buletin Poltanesa Journal of Applied Computer Science and Technology (JACOST) International Research on Big-data and Computer Technology (IRobot) Journal of Applied Sciences, Management and Engineering Technology (JASMET) Journal of Information Technology (JIfoTech) Jurnal Informatika Teknologi dan Sains (Jinteks) JAIA - Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Applications Nusantara of Engineering (NOE) Jurnal Bangkit Indonesia Jikom: Jurnal Informatika dan Komputer Bulletin of Network Engineer and Informatics (BUFNETS) Journal of Informatics, Electrical and Electronics Engineering SmartComp Jurnal Informatika Polinema (JIP) TECHNOVATAR Intechno Journal : Information Technology Journal Bridge: Jurnal Publikasi Sistem Informasi dan Telekomunikasi Teknologi : Jurnal Ilmiah Sistem Informasi
Alva Hendi Muhammad
Universitas Amikom Yogyakarta
Aerospace Engineering Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Automotive Engineering Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Social Sciences Other

Published : 87 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 1 Documents
Search
Journal : bulletin of network engineer and informatics bufnets

 1 
COMPARISON OF BAYESIAN MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO AND MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS FOR STUDENT CUMULATIVE GRADE POINT AVERAGE PREDICTION WITH FEATURE ENGINEERING Husni Hidayat Malik; Indra Surya Permana; Alva Hendi Muhammad; Kusnawi Kusnawi
Bulletin of Network Engineer and Informatics Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): BUFNETS (Bulletin of Network Engineer and Informatics) April 2026
Publisher : PT. GWEX NET PUBLISHER

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59688/vfk6qw80

Abstract

Prediksi Indeks Prestasi Kumulatif (IPK) merupakan salah satu tantangan penting dalam manajemen akademik perguruan tinggi. Penelitian ini mengusulkan penerapan algoritma Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) berbasis inferensi Bayesian untuk memprediksi IPK mahasiswa berdasarkan Indeks Prestasi Semester (IPS) 1-8, dilengkapi dengan tiga fitur rekayasa: rata-rata IPS, variabilitas IPS (standar deviasi), dan tren IPS. Keunggulan utama pendekatan Bayesian adalah kemampuannya menghasilkan kuantifikasi ketidakpastian (uncertainty quantification) berupa interval kepercayaan 95% untuk setiap prediksi, yang tidak dapat dilakukan metode machine learning konvensional. Model MCMC dibandingkan secara komprehensif dengan tujuh algoritma machine learning: Random Forest, XGBoost, Gradient Boosting, SVM, KNN, AdaBoost, dan Bagging, menggunakan dataset 543 mahasiswa dari Institut Teknologi dan Kesehatan Mahardika periode 2017-2021. Evaluasi dilakukan melalui train-test split (80:20) dan 5-fold cross-validation menggunakan metrik RMSE, MAE, MAPE, dan R². Hasil pada data testing menunjukkan MCMC Bayesian memperoleh RMSE 0.0792 dan R² 0.867, berada pada peringkat kedua setelah Gradient Boosting. Namun pada evaluasi cross-validation yang lebih robust, MCMC Bayesian unggul dengan RMSE terendah 0.0832±0.0162 dan R² tertinggi 0.848. Temuan ini menunjukkan MCMC Bayesian tidak hanya kompetitif dari sisi akurasi, tetapi juga memberikan nilai tambah unik berupa estimasi ketidakpastian prediksi yang sangat berguna untuk sistem peringatan dini akademik.   Predicting Cumulative Achievement Index (GPA) is a key challenge in higher education academic management. This study proposes the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian inference for predicting student GPA based on Semester Achievement Index (IPS) from semesters 1-8, enriched with three engineered features: IPS mean, IPS variability (standard deviation), and IPS trend. The primary advantage of the Bayesian approach is its ability to produce uncertainty quantification in the form of 95% credible intervals for each prediction, which conventional machine learning methods cannot provide. The MCMC model was comprehensively compared against seven machine learning algorithms: Random Forest, XGBoost, Gradient Boosting, SVM, KNN, AdaBoost, and Bagging, using a dataset of 543 students from Institut Teknologi dan Kesehatan Mahardika for the period 2017-2021. Evaluation was conducted through an 80:20 train-test split and 5-fold cross-validation using RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R² metrics. Test set results show MCMC Bayesian achieved RMSE 0.0792 and R² 0.867, ranking second after Gradient Boosting. However, in the more robust cross-validation evaluation, MCMC Bayesian outperformed all competitors with the lowest RMSE of 0.0832±0.0162 and highest R² of 0.848. These findings demonstrate that MCMC Bayesian is not only competitive in accuracy but also provides the unique value of prediction uncertainty estimation, which is highly useful for early academic warning systems
Co-Authors Abdul latif Adhien Kenya Estetikha Aditama, Galih Agung Harimurti, Agung Agus Purwanto Ahmad Yusuf Alif Sahputra Alif Syaiful Huda Ananda Fikri Akbar Andi Sunyoto Anggit Dwi Hartanto Anggrainy, Shynta Eza Annisa Hestiningtyas Arief Rahman Hakim Arief Setyanto Arif Baktiar Arsad Arta Perdana, Bagus Gede Asro Nasiri Asro Nasiri A’yuni, Ashlih Qurota Bagus Setya Baiq Yulia Fitriyani Bambang Soedijono Bambang Soedijono W.A Bambang Soedijono W.A Bambang Soedijono, Bambang Bernadhed, Bernadhed Bismar Rifki wahyu Prasetya Chaedar Fatach, Muhamad Reza Christin Soyan Dengen Danu Prawira Utama David Diamanta DHANI ARIATMANTO Dhani Ariatmanto Dony Ariyus Eka Sakti, Putra Utama Eko Pramono Ema Utami Fauzi, Moch Farid Fendi Setiabudi Ferry Wahyu Wibowo Fitriyani, Baiq Yulia Hanafi Hanafi Harahap, Muhammad Sya'ban Haris, Ruby Hasan, Nurul Rahmawati Hasibuan, M. Rivai Hery Priandoko Hewen, Maria Beliti Husni Hidayat Malik I Gusti Ngurah Wikranta Arsa Arsa Ilham Setya Budi Indra Surya Permana Intan Sari Gusti Irawan, Hafizhan Irawan, Ridwan Dwi Irwan Oyong Jangkung Tri Nygroho Jeki Kuswanto Joko Dwi Santoso Juslan, Wulandari kurniawan, Ade Kurniawan Kusnawi Kusnawi Kusrini Kusrini, K Leo, Donatus Lubna Lubna M. Hanafi Malik, Husni Hidayat Maradona, Maradona MEI PARWANTO KURNIAWAN Melinne Maldini Rosady Muh Adha Muhamad Rodi Muhammad Husein Budiraharjo Muhammad Imam Munandar Muhammad Rizky Hajar Muhartini, Sitti Muktafin, Elik Hari Nadya Chitayae Nasiri, Asro Nor Riduan Novel Adil Dwijaksana Nugroho, Hanantyo Sri Nur Aini Nur Aziz Nugroho Prasetya, Bismar Rifki wahyu Prasetya, Rendra Prima Giri Pamungkas Puji Ariningsih Raynold, Raynold Razaq, Thata Authar Richki Hardi Rifqi Anugrah Robert Marco Roymond Chandra Pradana Saputra, Mahmuda Setiajid, Bayu Setyanto, Arif Sofian Dwi Hadiwinata Solehatin, Solehatin Sri Ngudi Wahyuni Sri Ngudi Wahyuni, Sri Ngudi Suparyati Suparyati Suseno, Hari Budhi Taryoko, Taryoko TONNY HIDAYAT Ula, M. Izul Verawati, Ike Very Kurnia Bakti, Very Kurnia Wahyunia Ningsih Syam Widodo, Cynthia Wiwi Widayani, Wiwi Yana Hendriana Yossy Ariyanto Zakiri, Hasani Zitnaa Dhiaaul Kusnaa Washilatul Arba'ah Zitnaa Dhiaaul KWA Zubaedi, Umam Faqih