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All Journal IAES International Journal of Artificial Intelligence (IJ-AI) FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Media Statistika SAINSMAT CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer JUITA : Jurnal Informatika JOIN (Jurnal Online Informatika) Padjadjaran Journal of Dentistry Jurnal Matematika Sains dan Teknologi Journal of Regional and Rural Development Planning BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JOURNAL OF APPLIED INFORMATICS AND COMPUTING MATRIK : Jurnal Manajemen, Teknik Informatika, dan Rekayasa Komputer Jambura Journal of Mathematics ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications Inferensi International Journal of Advances in Data and Information Systems Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi SAINSMAT: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Jurnal Natural Xplore: Journal of Statistics Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Yenni Angraini
Department Of Statistics And Data Science, Faculty Of Mathematics And Natural Science, IPB University, Indonesia
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Astronomy Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Dentistry Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Immunology & microbiology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Neuroscience Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Journal : Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)

 1 
Flood Risk Clustering Based on SARIMA Rainfall Prediction and Regional Mapping in Central Java Maulidiyah, Wildatul; Rahmasari, Hazelita Dwi; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Angraini, Yenni; Mualifah, Laily Nissa Atul 
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.8632

Abstract

High and spatially uneven rainfall is a major contributing factor to flooding in tropical regions such as Indonesia, including Central Java Province. This study aims to classify regions based on rainfall patterns using the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) method and hierarchical clustering, followed by rainfall forecasting for each cluster using the SARIMA model. The dataset comprises monthly rainfall records from 2017 to 2023 across 35 regencies and cities in Central Java. The clustering process identified three distinct groups with low, medium, and high rainfall intensity. Evaluation results indicated that the single linkage models for each cluster were SARIMA(0,0,2)(0,1,0)[12] with a MAPE of 27% (Cluster 1), SARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1)[12] with a MAPE of 9.4% (Cluster 2), and SARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)[12] with a MAPE of 9.97% (Cluster 3). These findings provide a robust spatio-temporal basis for supporting flood risk mitigation strategies based on rainfall prediction in Central Java.
Co-Authors Aam Alamudi Achmad Noerkhaerin Putra Adelia Putri Pangestika Akbar Rizki Akbar Rizki Al Maida, Mahda Amaliya, Sri Amanda, Nabila Tri Amatullah, Fida Fariha Anang Kurnia Andika Putri Ratnasari Anisa, Rahma Anistia Iswari Antique Yusuf, Rakesha Putra Arbaynah, Siti Ariesanti, Yessy ASEP SAEFUDDIN Azahran, Muhammad Ryan Azkiya, Azka Al Bagus Sartono Berliana Apriyanti Billy, Billy Cintani, Meavi Dian Kusumaningrum Dzulhij Rizki, Muhammad Abshor Eka Dewi Pertiwi Else Virdiani Fachry Abda El Rahman Fadhilah, Nur Anggraini Fadillah, Maulana Ahsan Fira Nurahmah Al Aminy Fitri, Zafira Ilma Fitrianti, Dwi Fitrianto, Anwar Ghiffary, Ghardapaty Ghaly Gunawan, Windi Hakim, Bashir Ammar Hari Wijayanto Hasanah, Mauizatun Hilali Moh’d, Fatma I Made Sumertajaya Ilma, Meisyatul Ilmani, Erdanisa Aghnia Indahwati Isnaini, Mardatunnisa Itasia Dina Sulvianti Jamaluddin Rabbani Harahap Kenia Maulidia Kurnadipare, Aleytha Ilahnugrah Kusman Sadik Lia Ratih Kusuma Dewi Magfirrah, Indah Maghfiroh, Firda Aulia Mahesa Ahmad Rahmawan Mahesa, Hakim Zoelva Maulidiyah, Wildatul Moh'd, Fatma Hilali Mohammad Abror Gustiansyah Mohammad Masjkur Mualifah, Laily Nissa Atul Mualifah, Laily Nissa Atul  MY, Hadyanti Utami Nabila Ghoni Trisno Hidayatulloh Nabila Ghoni Trisno Hidayatulloh Nensi, Andi Illa Erviani Nickyta Shavira Maharani Nizar, Yeky Abil Nugraha, Adhiyatma Nur Aziza, Vivin Nurhambali, Muhammad Rizky Oksi Al Hadi Oktaviani Aisyah Putri Pratiwi, Windy Ayu Putri Zainal Putri, Adelia Putri, Mega Ramatika Putri, Rizki Alifah Raffael Julio Roger Roa Rahmasari, Hazelita Dwi Rahmi, Salsabila Dwi Ramadhani, Dini Ramdani, Indri Riana Riskinandini Riska Yulianti, Riska Rizki, Akbar Rizki, Anwar Fajar Setyowati, Silfiana Lis Siregar, Indra Rivaldi Steven Kurniawan Suci Pujiani Prahesti Suwarso, Dhiya Khalishah Tsany Syam, Ummul Auliyah Tendi Ferdian Diputra Tias Amalia Safitri Tsabitah, Dhiya Tsabitah, Dhiya Ulayya Ulfia, Ratu Risha Utami Dyah Syafitri Wahyudina, Salsa Putri Wiwiek Poedjiastoeti, Wiwiek Wiwik Andriyani Lestari Ningsih Wiwik Andriyani Lestari Ningsih Yanuari, Eka Dicky Darmawan Yully Sofyah Waode Zulhijrah, Zulhijrah