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Prediksi Permintaan Produksi dan Strategi Pemasaran UMKM Pia Aldista Menggunakan Analisis Markov dan SWOT Alis Suleman; Ismail Djakaria; La Ode Nashar
Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika Vol 5, No 1 (2025): Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/jrmm.v5i1.35717

Abstract

MSMEs play a vital role in national economic growth, but fluctuations in production demand pose a challenge in maintaining operational stability. The study on the Pia Lumer Aldista MSME aims to predict production demand and formulate marketing strategies through Markov Chain Analysis and SWOT. Markov Chain is used to model demand transition patterns based on the last three years of data and determine steady-state conditions, while SWOT identifies internal and external factors that influence marketing strategies. The Chi-Square Test results indicate that the data meets the Markov assumptions. Furthermore, the analysis results indicate that the original chocolate variant will stabilize in the 10th period with a decrease of 38.4\%, while pandan chocolate is stable in the first period but experiences a drastic decrease of 29.4\%. The SWOT analysis produces an IFAS score of 3.195 and an EFAS score of 3.148, placing the MSME in Quadrant I. Therefore, aggressive strategies are recommended, such as strengthening product uniqueness, lowering prices, expanding markets, and optimizing distribution. The approach of these two methods helps anticipate market changes and increase business competitiveness.
Penerapan Model ARFIMA-LSTM Menggunakan Variasi Estimasi Parameter Pembeda Dalam Meramalkan data IHPBI Trieke Nurfadilah Harun; Ismail Djakaria; Nisky Imansyah Yahya; Salmun K Nasib; Isran K Hasan
Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika Vol 4, No 5 (2025): Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/jrmm.v4i5.33303

Abstract

Indeks Harga Perdagangan Besar Indonesia (IHPBI) merupakan indikator penting dalam mengukur perkembangan ekonomi, khususnya pada sektor pertanian yang memiliki pengaruh besar terhadap daya beli masyarakat. Fluktuasi harga di sektor ini berdampak langsung pada kesejahteraan konsumen dan produsen, sehingga diperlukan metode peramalan yang akurat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan IHPBI sektor pertanian menggunakan pendekatan hybrid Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) dan Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), serta membandingkan performa  metode estimasi parameter pembeda terbaik. Model ARFIMA digunakan untuk menangani komponen stasioner dan pola jangka panjang melalui diferensiasi pecahan, sedangkan LSTM digunakan untuk menangkap pola nonlinier dalam data. Keterbaruan dalam penelitian ini adalah membandingkan parameter pembeda terbaik yaitu Local Whittle dan Rescaled Range Statistics dalam hybrid ARFIMA-LSTM. Hasil dari penelitian yaitu peramalan menunjukkan tren naik IHPBI sektor pertanian selama 12 bulan ke depan. Metode estimasi parameter pembeda terbaik dalam model ARFIMA adalah Rescaled Range Statistics dengan nilai sebesar 0,322. Model hybrid ini menghasilkan nilai MAPE sebesar 0,6337853%, yang menunjukkan tingkat akurasi sangat tinggi.
Pendampingan Teknik Analisis Data dan Interpretasi Hasil untuk Penelitian Tindakan Kelas di SMP: Workshop on Data Analysis Techniques and Result Interpretation for Classroom Action Research in Junior High School Ismail Djakaria; Dewi Rahmawaty Isa; Amanda Adityaningrum; Siti Nurmardia Abdussamad; Muhammad Rezky Friesta Payu
Jurnal Kolaboratif Sains (Special Issue) - Jurnal Kolaboratif Sains (JKS) - Januari 2026
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Palu

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56338/jks.v9i1.10570

Abstract

Kegiatan pengabdian kepada masyarakat ini bertujuan meningkatkan kompetensi guru Sekolah Menengah Pertama (SMP) dalam menganalisis data dan menginterpretasi hasil Penelitian Tindakan Kelas (PTK) sebagai bagian dari pengembangan profesionalisme berkelanjutan. Kegiatan pengabdian ini dilaksanakan di gedung LPMP Provinsi Gorontalo dan Laboratorium Komputer FMIPA, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo, pada tanggal 10-11 Juli. Peserta kegiatan adalah guru yang tergabung dalam MGMP Matematika di Kabupaten Bone Bolango. Kegiatan pengabdian terdiri dari tiga sesi mencakup: materi dasar analisis data, pelatihan Microsoft Excel untuk statistik deskriptif, dan pengenalan SPSS untuk analisis data sistematis. Hasil pendampingan menunjukkan peningkatan dalam pemahaman dan keterampilan guru, terlihat dari kemampuan menyusun tabel distribusi frekuensi, menghitung persentase ketuntasan belajar, membuat grafik, dan menginterpretasi output SPSS dengan percaya diri. Pendampingan serupa direkomendasikan untuk dilaksanakan secara berkelanjutan dengan waktu lebih panjang.
PENGEMBANGAN E-MODUL FLIP PDF UNTUK SISWA FLEGMATIS PADA MATERI PECAHAN KELAS VII MTs NURUL BAHRI Muhaimin Kodai; Evi P. Hulukati; Ismail Djakaria
JP2M (Jurnal Pendidikan dan Pembelajaran Matematika) Vol 11, No 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Bhinneka PGRI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29100/jp2m.v11i2.9736

Abstract

This study is directed at the development of a digital learning resource in the form of a mathematics e-module utilizing the Flip PDF application, specifically designed to accommodate the learning tendencies of students with a phlegmatic personality type on fraction topics at the junior high school level. The product development employed a Research and Development approach using the ADDIE framework, which consists of needs analysis, design planning, product creation, classroom implementation, and outcome evaluation stages. The research participants were seventh-grade students of SMP/MTs at MTs Nurul Bahri Kabila Bone who were identified as having phlegmatic personality characteristics. Data collection techniques included product feasibility assessments conducted by subject-matter experts and media experts, questionnaires capturing teacher and student responses, as well as personality identification instruments based on Florence Littauer’s theory. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive quantitative methods. The results indicate that the developed e-module achieved a very high level of feasibility, as evidenced by average validation scores of 3.40 from media experts and 3.60 from subject-matter experts. Practicality testing showed that teachers provided a perfect response rate of 100%, categorized as very practical, while student responses reached 85.49%, categorized as practical. Therefore, the Flip PDF–based mathematics e-module developed in this study is considered feasible, practical, and effective for use as a learning resource to support fraction learning for junior high school students with a phlegmatic personality type.
Model Integer Linear Programming pada Optimisasi Distribusi Logistik di Daerah Bencana Miranti H. Kasim; Ismail Djakaria; Lailany Yahya
Research in the Mathematical and Natural Sciences Vol. 1 No. 1 (2022): November 2021-April 2022
Publisher : Scimadly Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (321.569 KB) | DOI: 10.55657/rmns.v1i1.3

Abstract

Logistics distribution in disaster-affected areas includes the delivery of relief goods (food, medicine, and clothing) using three types of vehicles with different carrying capacities for each vehicle. In distributing relief goods, unfulfilled requests can occur in disaster-affected areas. This problem can be modeled in the form of integer linear programming because there is a variable that must be an integer value to minimize unfulfilled demand for all types of relief goods at each point of demand. The branch and bound method can solve this problem's integer linear programming model. The next model is simulated using the LINGO 11.0 programming language. The simulation results show that the system can be considered feasible to use. Thus, the vehicle allocation is also obtained in each period with distribution costs from the point of supply to the point of demand. This distribution process lasts for four periods by showing a change in the number of unfulfilled requests. In the last period, there was no more unfulfilled demand for aid to obtain optimal results.
Implementasi Model Cox Stratifikasi Interaksi dan Tanpa Interaksi untuk Mengidentifikasi Faktor-Faktor Laju Kesembuhan Pasien TB Paru Fakhira Modeong; Dewi Rahmawaty Isa; Ismail Djakaria; Muhammad Rezky Friesta Payu; Sri Lestari Mahmud
Research in the Mathematical and Natural Sciences Vol. 2 No. 2 (2023): May-October 2023
Publisher : Scimadly Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55657/rmns.v2i2.130

Abstract

This study aims to determine the factors that most influence the rate of recovery of pulmonary tuberculosis patients using the Cox Proportional Hazard model. In the case of the cure rate of pulmonary tuberculosis patients, not all independent variables meet the proportional hazard assumption, so the stratified cox regression model is used. The stratified cox regression model used is the stratified cox model with interaction and without interaction involving pulmonary tuberculosis patients in one of the Gorontalo Hospitals. The results showed that the variables of shortness of breath, previous pulmonary tuberculosis patients, and smoking habits were the most significant factors affecting the recovery rate of pulmonary tuberculosis patients.
Analisis Kemampuan Penalaran Matematis Siswa pada Materi Pola Bilangan Ditinjau Dari Kemampuan Menyelesaikan Soal Berbasis Masalah Arsiullahnur R. Paputungan; Ismail Djakaria; Yamin Ismail
Research in the Mathematical and Natural Sciences Vol. 3 No. 2 (2024): May-October 2024
Publisher : Scimadly Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55657/rmns.v3i2.162

Abstract

This research is a qualitative descriptive study which aims to determine students' mathematical reasoning abilities in solving problem-based questions with categories of high, sufficient and low mathematical reasoning abilities. The subjects studied were 18 students at SMPN 15 Gorontalo who were in class VIII. The data collection technique is a means of collecting data by researchers which takes place in two stages, namely tests and interviews. The indicators used in this research are as follows: 1) Ability to present mathematical statements in writing. 2) submit an opinion. 3) carry out mathematical manipulations. 4) compiling evidence, providing reasons or evidence for the truth and 5) drawing conclusions. The research results showed that the ability to present mathematical statements obtained a presentation of 68.52% in the high category, the ability to put forward conjectures in the presentation 44.44% in the sufficient category, the ability to manipulate mathematical presentations in the sufficient category 44.44%, the ability to draw conclusions, compile evidence, provide reasons or evidence for the correctness of the solution. obtained presents 48.15%. sufficient category, an interesting conclusion from the statement obtaining a percentage of 40.74% in the sufficient category.
ANALISIS PERPINDAHAN MEREK DAN STRATEGI PEMASARAN UMKM MENGGUNAKAN METODE RANTAI MARKOV DAN TEORI PERMAINAN Karmila Mokoginta; Salmun K. Nasib; Ismail Djakaria; Djihad Wungguli
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 12 No. 01 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/mathunesa.v12n1.p57-66

Abstract

Usaha mikro, kecil dan menyengah (UMKM) merupakan kegiatan usaha yang mampu memperluas lapangan kerja dan memberikan pelayanan ekonomi yang luas pada masyarakat. Di provinsi Gorontalo, UMKM berkembang semakin pesat. Banyaknya pilihan UMKM berdampak pada tingkat keinginan konsumen terhadap suatu produk sehingga konsumen berpeluang untuk melakukan perpindahan merek. Dalam mengatasi masalah perpindahan merek, para pelaku UMKM harus memilih strategi pemasaran yang tepat, sehingga dapat mempertahankan dan meningkatkan minat pelanggan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis perpindahan pelanggan dan strategi pemasaran UMKM di Temu Social Space Gorontalo menggunakan metode rantai markov dan teori permainan. UMKM yang dimaksud adalah Drinking Of You (DOY), Mhimhithaitea dan Sruput. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan perpindahan pelanggan dari Drinking Of You (DOY) ke Mhimhithaitea sebesar 0,143, Mhimhithaitea ke Drinking Of You (DOY) sebesar 0,120, Drinking Of You (DOY) ke Sruput sebesar 0,032, Sruput ke Drinking Of You (DOY) sebesar 0,167, Mhimhithaitea ke Sruput sebesar 0,200, Sruput ke Mhimhithaitea sebesar 0,250. Sementara itu, strategi pemasaran optimal Drinking Of You (DOY) adalah promosi dan kualitas rasa. Strategi pemasaran optimal Mhimhithaitea adalah harga, kualitas rasa dan pelayanan. Strategi pemasaran optimal Sruput adalah kualitas rasa dan kemasan.
Systematic Literature Review on the Integration of Technology in Enhancing Problem-Solving Skills in Mathematics Education Sianne Sarif; Ismail Djakaria; Hasan S. Panigoro
Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Volume 14 Issue 2 August 2026
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/euler.v14i2.39501

Abstract

This systematic literature review explores how technology is being used in math instruction students and the effect on this issue of problem-solving. Based on nine chosen studies, the review synthesises evidence about which kind of technological tools help improve problem-solving skills and the advantages and disadvantages of their use. The results show that the integration of technology positively helps students improve their problem-solving performance within pedagogically aligned learning activities, one that fosters strategic thinking, metacognitive skills and collaborative involvement. Some suitable tools are dynamic mathematics software, computer algebra system, Interactive learning tool and TPACK (technological pedagogical content knowledge) based technology. It also notes that benefits come with the caveat of schools not yet being prepared to teach, curriculum alignment and sufficient access to materials for learning, while challenges include equity of technology infrastructure, inadequate training and the speed at which digital tools change. The synthesis provides overall evidence of a conditional but significant effect of technology on developing problem-solving skills in mathematics education.
Optimasi Green Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows (G-VRTW) dengan Menggunakan Algoritma Genetika: Studi Kasus Depo Alfamart Gorontalo Sartika Husain; Djihad Wungguli; Ismail Djakaria; Moh. Rifai Katili; Asriadi Asriadi
Algoritma : Jurnal Matematika, Ilmu pengetahuan Alam, Kebumian dan Angkasa Vol. 4 No. 5 (2026): Algoritma : Jurnal Matematika, Ilmu pengetahuan Alam, Kebumian dan Angkasa
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Matematika dan Sains Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62383/algoritma.v4i5.1061

Abstract

The development of the modern retail industry has increased goods distribution activities, creating a need for efficient and environmentally friendly distribution systems. This study aims to optimize distribution routes at the Gorontalo Alfamart Distribution Depot using the Green Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows (G-VRPTW) model by considering vehicle capacity, service time windows, load-dependent fuel consumption, and vehicle carbon emissions. The model is solved using a Genetic Algorithm as a metaheuristic method. The solution is represented using permutation encoding, with optimization stages consisting of initial population generation, selection, crossover, mutation, and fitness evaluation. The research data were obtained from the distribution system of the Gorontalo Alfamart Distribution Depot. The optimization results show that the Genetic Algorithm produces more efficient routes than the company's actual routes. The total travel distance was reduced from 1,075.24 km to 774.69 km, representing a reduction of 27.95%, while fuel consumption decreased from 65.124 L to 45.4573 L, representing a reduction of 30.20%. Accordingly, estimated carbon emissions decreased from 165.413 kg CO₂ to 115.4619 kg CO₂, representing a reduction of 30.20%. These results indicate that the developed G-VRPTW model based on the Genetic Algorithm can support the implementation of green logistics by improving distribution efficiency and reducing environmental impacts.
Co-Authors A. Fahmi Indrayani Abubakar, Agung Sucipto Agustina, Melisa Agusyarif Rezka Nuha Alamri, Fahima Alis Suleman Amalia Tatu Amanda Adityaningrum Armayani Arsal Armin Haluti Arsiullahnur R. Paputungan Arwildayanto, Arwildayanto Asriadi Asriadi Auli Irfah Boby Rantow Payu Caicy Magelo Demas Novaleda Abdul Karim Dewi Rahmawati Isa Dewi Rahmawaty Isa Djibran, Fahrudin Djihad Wungguli Evi Hulukati Fakhira Modeong Fatmawati Payopo Fenly B Mohamad Fitra Reza Dj Wares Franky Alfrits Oroh Frans Mitran Ajami Gaib, Muhammad Bachtiar Hamila Hulihulis Hamza B Uno HARIYATI H. USMAN Haryati Octaviani Bempah Hasan S. Panigoro Hasan, Irsan K. Hasan, Riyanto HASIRU, LISA SYAHRIA Hendra Andrianto Yusuf Herlina Jusuf Isran K Hasan Iyohu, Lisa Rianti Jackonias Sanadi Jenny Patricia Ayu Kai K. Hasan, Isran Karmila Mokoginta Kartin Usman Kurniawan Kurniawan La Ode Nashar La Ode Nashar Ladjali, Nurjana Namko Ladjali, Sri Indriani Lailany Yahya Madonsa, Muhammad Rifai Mahajani, Roy Mahmud, Sri Lestari Majid Majid Majid, Majid Marice Awairaro Mentari Rizki Sawitri Pilomonu Miranti H. Kasim Moh. Rifai Katili Moh. Rifky Monoarfa Mohamad Rivaldi Moha Mokodompit, Marcela Muhaimin Kodai Muhammad Fathurrahman Muhammad Fathurrahman Muhammad Rezky F. Payu Muhammad Rezky Friesta Payu Nazmi Al-lahmadi Ningsih, Setia NISKY IMANSYAH YAHYA Nosva Adam Yunus Novianita Achmad Novianty Djapri Nurhayati Abbas Nursiya Bito Pakaya, Debyyansa Perry Zakaria POMALINGO, DEWI ZULYANI Putri Dini Retno Pratiwi Rahmat Rahmat Rahmi Moh. Amin Randy Ferdiansyah Resmawan Resmawan Ria Kilala Safrudin Ismail Salima Silayar Salmiaty Hasan Salmun K. Nasib Sarira, Regina Amelia Sartika Husain Sianne Sarif siswanto, Navira Siti Nurmardia Abdussamad Sitra Kalauw Sri Endang Saleh Sri Haryatmi Kartiko Sri Lestari Mahmud Suhardiman Darson Tamu Sumarno Ismail suryo Guritno Swasti Maharani Syafrudin Katili Syafrudin, Marisa Syamsu Qomar Badu Trieke Nurfadilah Harun Ukhti Nurfajriah Sasmita Ijonu Ulopo, Asrul S WA SALMI WD Rifqah Amalliah Ndangi Yamin Ismail Yenni Sauli Yunus, Silvani Yusuf, Hendra Andrianto Zulkifli Alamtaha