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APPLICATION OF TIME SERIES REGRESSION (TSR) AND AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) IN RICE PRODUCTION FORECASTING IN INDONESIA Fahmuddin S, Muhammad; Ruliana; Fahmi, Nurul
VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its application on Teaching and Research Vol. 7 No. 03 (2025)
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika Fakultas MIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/variansiunm412

Abstract

Rice production plays a crucial role in supporting food security in Indonesia. The annual fluctuations in rice yield necessitate accurate forecasting methods to support agricultural planning. This study aims to forecast rice production in Indonesia using two time series forecasting approaches: Time Series Regression (TSR) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The data used consist of monthly rice production from January 2020 to December 2024. The analysis results show that both methods are capable of modeling the data well, with high forecasting accuracy based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The TSR model yielded a MAPE of 13.838%, while the ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12model achieved a lower MAPE of 13.1439%, indicating that the ARIMA model provides more accurate forecasting results. This study is expected to serve as a reference for policy-making and strategic planning in rice production management in the future.
Pengaruh Model Pembelajaran AIR Terhadap Peningkatan Keterampilan Menyimak Bahasa Arab Siswa SMPU Karangsawo Lamongan Bangga , Abdul Taufik; Fahmi, Nurul
Annusfy : Journal of Multidisciplinary Research Vol. 1 No. 5 (2026): January 2026 , Annusfy
Publisher : Jaanur Elbarik Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.65065/z053xn34

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to apply the AIR learning model and determine its effect on improving Arabic listening skills of students at Karangsawo Lamongan Junior High School. Using a quantitative quasi-experimental design approach. Data collection through observation, documentation, pretest and posttest. Data analysis using the t-test. The results of this study indicate that the application of the AIR model has a significant effect on improving students' listening skills. This is shown through the results of the t-test with a calculated t-value for the experimental group of 10.73, a t-table value at a significance level of 0.05 is 1.721 and at a level of 0.01 is 2.518. Because the calculated t-value is greater than both t-table values ​​(10.73> 1.721 and 10.73> 2.518), it is known that the null hypothesis (H₀) is rejected and the alternative hypothesis (Ha) is accepted
Relasi Bahasa dan Hermeneutik dalam Prses Pemaknaan Teks Asyrofi, Muhammad Nur Haris; Fahmi, Nurul
Ta'lim : Jurnal Multidisiplin Ilmu Vol. 4 No. 2 (2025): Ta'lim : Jurnal Multidisiplin Ilmu
Publisher : STAI Hidayatut Thullab Kediri

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Abstract

This research stems frm the cmplexity f interpreting religius texts, which are ften cnfined t literal understandings despite language pssessing symblic dimensins that shape human reality. The primary prblem addressed is hw the relatinship between language and hermeneutics functins t reveal dynamic textual meanings. Within Islamic studies discurse, this study psitins hermeneutics nt merely as a linguistic tl, but as a methdlgical bridge cnnecting the text, the reader, and the sci-histrical cntext. The discussin is cnducted by analyzing three aspects: the nature f language as a medium f revelatin, the functin f hermeneutics as a methd fr interpreting implicit meanings, and the reciprcal synthesis between the tw. The results indicate that the intercnnectin between language and hermeneutics is capable f reslving semantic ambiguity and ensuring the relevance f classical texts in the mdern era. This synergy allws texts t be understd critically and cntextually withut lsing their authenticity. These ideas are cmprehensively summarized in this article, titled "Relasi Bahasa dan Hermeneutik dalam Prses Pemaknaan Teks" (The Relatin f Language and Hermeneutics in the Prcess f Textual Interpretatin)
Relasi Bahasa dan Hermeneutik dalam Prses Pemaknaan Teks Asyrofi, Muhammad Nur Haris; Fahmi, Nurul
Ta'lim : Jurnal Multidisiplin Ilmu Vol. 4 No. 2 (2025): Ta'lim : Jurnal Multidisiplin Ilmu
Publisher : STAI Hidayatut Thullab Kediri

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

This research stems frm the cmplexity f interpreting religius texts, which are ften cnfined t literal understandings despite language pssessing symblic dimensins that shape human reality. The primary prblem addressed is hw the relatinship between language and hermeneutics functins t reveal dynamic textual meanings. Within Islamic studies discurse, this study psitins hermeneutics nt merely as a linguistic tl, but as a methdlgical bridge cnnecting the text, the reader, and the sci-histrical cntext. The discussin is cnducted by analyzing three aspects: the nature f language as a medium f revelatin, the functin f hermeneutics as a methd fr interpreting implicit meanings, and the reciprcal synthesis between the tw. The results indicate that the intercnnectin between language and hermeneutics is capable f reslving semantic ambiguity and ensuring the relevance f classical texts in the mdern era. This synergy allws texts t be understd critically and cntextually withut lsing their authenticity. These ideas are cmprehensively summarized in this article, titled "Relasi Bahasa dan Hermeneutik dalam Prses Pemaknaan Teks" (The Relatin f Language and Hermeneutics in the Prcess f Textual Interpretatin)
Pembuatan Meja Belajar Sekolah Menengah Pertama Mutiara Qur’an Boarding School Nurul Fahmi; Eko Prayitno; Syaari; Ahmad Yani; Ananda, Faisal
TANJAK : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 6 No 2 (2025): TANJAK : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : P3M Politeknik Negeri Bengkalis

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35314/fxwvdd76

Abstract

Pengabdian masyarakat merupakan bagian penting di dalam tri dharma perguruan tinggi, oleh karena itu diperlukan komunikasi yang luas dengan berbagai pihak dalam mewujudkan kegiatan ini salah satunya Yayasan Mutiara Quran Boarding School (MQBS). Salah satu bentuk kegiatan yang telah dijalankan yaitu dengan adanya kegiatan pengadaan meja belajar siswa yang akan membantu siswa dalam proses pembelajaran. Berdasarkan kondisi ini, maka telah dilaksanakan proses pembuatan meja siswa sesuai dengan keinginan mitra. Hal ini juga bentuk kegiatan yang akan memberikan dampak positif bagi kedua belah pihak. Sesuai degan keadaan di lapangan juga, kegiatan ini bisa menjadi kegiatan rutin yang dapat terus memberikan dampak bagi ke dua institusi.
Integrating Building Information Modeling (BIM) and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) for Building 3D Modeling: A Case Study of Wisma Sri Mahkota Bengkalis Saputra, Hendra; Azizan, Fanni; Fahmi, Nurul
CSID Journal of Infrastructure Development Vol. 5, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

The demand for geospatial information of a region grows in numerous sectors, as does the method of mapping operations. Various advanced technology has been utilized to support survey and mapping activities, including Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). This study aims to develop a method to digitize building documentation by integrating the UAV in the Building Information Modelling (BIM) by considering a lodging property in Bengkalis regency as the case study. Orthophoto data obtained from processing aerial photos taken using three flight paths, namely Nadir, Oblique, and Circular, was used to develop the BIM 3D model. The accuracy of the developed BIM model was evaluated using the orthophoto data as the horizontal accuracy using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) metrics. The accuracy calculation of Point Cloud 3D resulted from the integration of BIM and UAV, resulting in RMSExy of 0.0834 m, a height ratio of 0.05, and Circular Error (CE) accuracy of 0.1265 m included in the Level of Detail (LOD) 3, confirming the high accuracy of BIM-UAV integration.
Riyadah Sebagai Instrumen Manajemen Stres Bagi Ibu: Workshop Virtual Peningkatan Kualitas Parenting Asyofi, Muhammad Nur Haris; Fahmi, Nurul
Jurnal Abdimas Al Hidayah Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Abdimas Al Hidayah
Publisher : STAI Hidayatut Thullab Kediri

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Abstract

Peran ibu sebagai madrasatul ula di era digital dihadapkan pada tantangan pengasuhan yang kompleks, yang sering kali memicu stres pengasuhan (parenting stress). Stres yang tidak terkelola berdampak buruk pada kesehatan mental ibu dan kualitas pola asuh anak. Pengabdian masyarakat ini bertujuan untuk memberikan solusi manajemen stres melalui internalisasi nilai-nilai riyadah (latihan spiritual) sebagai instrumen regulasi diri bagi para ibu. Metode yang digunakan adalah edukasi interaktif melalui workshop virtual via platform Zoom Meeting, yang meliputi tahap persiapan, pemaparan materi, simulasi spiritual breathing, dan evaluasi. Peserta kegiatan terdiri dari 10 orang ibu dari berbagai daerah. Hasil pengabdian menunjukkan adanya peningkatan pemahaman peserta sebesar 90% terkait penggunaan riyadah sebagai mekanisme koping stres. Partisipan melaporkan bahwa praktik spiritual harian seperti dzikir, salat malam, dan kontrol emosi secara konsisten mampu menciptakan ketenangan batin (tuma’ninah) dan menurunkan reaksi emosional negatif terhadap anak. Simpulan dari pengabdian ini menegaskan bahwa riyadah bukan hanya praktik ritual, melainkan instrumen manajemen diri yang efektif untuk meningkatkan kualitas parenting dan ketahanan keluarga di masa transisi digital.
An Embedded System for applying High Performance Computing in Educational Learning Activity Wina Rachmawan, Irene Erlyn; Fahmi, Nurul; Widodo, Edi Wahyu; Huda, Samsul; Pamenang, M. Unggul; Roziqin, M. Choirur; W., Andri Permana; Sukaridhoto, Stritusta; Pramadihanto, Dadet
EMITTER International Journal of Engineering Technology Vol 4 No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Politeknik Elektronika Negeri Surabaya (PENS)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1553.613 KB) | DOI: 10.24003/emitter.v4i1.113

Abstract

HPC (High Performance Computing) has become more popular in the last few years. With the benefits on high computational power, HPC has impact on industry, scientific research and educational activities. Implementing HPC as a curriculum in universities could be consuming a lot of resources because well-known HPC system are using Personal Computer or Server. By using PC as the practical moduls it is need great resources and spaces.  This paper presents an innovative high performance computing cluster system to support education learning activities in HPC course with small size, low cost, and yet powerful enough. In recent years, High Performance computing usually implanted in cluster computing and require high specification computer and expensive cost. It is not efficient applying High Performance Computing in Educational research activiry such as learning in Class. Therefore, our proposed system is created with inexpensive component by using Embedded System to make High Performance Computing applicable for leaning in the class. Students involved in the construction of embedded system, built clusters from basic embedded and network components, do benchmark performance, and implement simple parallel case using the cluster.  In this research we performed evaluation of embedded systems comparing with i5 PC, the results of our embedded system performance of NAS benchmark are similar with i5 PCs. We also conducted surveys about student learning satisfaction that with embedded system students are able to learn about HPC from building the system until making an application that use HPC system.
Adaptive Sleep Scheduling for Health Monitoring System Based on the IEEE 802.15.4 Standard Fahmi, Nurul; Al Rasyid, M. Udin Harun; Sudarsono, Amang
EMITTER International Journal of Engineering Technology Vol 4 No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Politeknik Elektronika Negeri Surabaya (PENS)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (2836.872 KB) | DOI: 10.24003/emitter.v4i1.115

Abstract

In the recent years, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) have become a very popular technology for research in various fields. One of the technologies which is developed using WSN is environmental health monitoring. However, there is a problem when we want to optimize the performance of the environmental health monitoring such as the limitation of the energy. In this paper, we proposed a method for the environmental health monitoring using the fuzzy logic approach according to the environmental health conditions. We use that condition to determine the sleep time in the system based on IEEE 802.15.4 standard protocol. The main purpose of this method is to extend the life and minimize the energy consumption of the battery. We implemented this system in the real hardware test-bed using temperature, humidity, CO and CO2 sensors. We compared the performance without sleep scheduling, with sleep scheduling and adaptive sleep scheduling. The power consumption spent during the process of testing without sleep scheduling is 52%, for the sleep scheduling is 13%, while using the adaptive sleep scheduling is around 7%. The users also can monitor the health condition via mobile phone or web-based application, in real-time anywhere and anytime.
Co-Authors A. Syarifuddin, A. Syarifuddin Abbas, Ardiman Sudjiany Ahdani, Luthfiyah Ahmad Riva’i, Fuad Ahmad Yani Aimmah, Aisy Wildatil Akhir, Muhammad Akmal Indra Amalia, Irfa Nur Amang Sudarsono, Amang Andi Paida, Andi Anggita, Anggita Arif Widodo Arifin, Moh Aziz Asriani Asriani, Asriani Asyofi, Muhammad Nur Haris Asyrofi, Muhammad Nur Haris Azizah, Rini Azizan, Fanni Azwardi Azwardi Bangga , Abdul Taufik Bin Ikhwat, Mohamad Azwan Binti Mohd. Nasir, Fadhillah Christanto Syam Custer, Johny Dadet Pramadihanto Eko Prayitno Eko Prayitno Eko Prayitono Ekoprayitno, Ekoprayitno Fahmuddin S, Muhammad Faisal Ananda Faisal Ananda Fatchiatuzahro, Fatchiatuzahro Fitriani Fitriani Fitriani, Siti Hendra Saputra Idrus, Aderiza Cahya Ayu Restia Jannah, Muzlifatul Khairusuhada, Khairusuhada Latuf, Lingkan Haifa M Udin Harun Al Rasyid, M Udin Harun Maemonah, Maemonah Mahmud, Saifuddin Masturah, Rahmah Ma’arif, M. Samsul Milla Marlina Assegaf Mohammad WIJAYA Muhammad Arman Muhammad Danial Muhammad Rusdi dan Afritha Amelia - Nabila, Gina Nor Anisa Nordin, Mohd Nur Azmi Nuraeni, Erni Nurlina Nurlina Nurrahman - Pamenang, M. Unggul Pamenang, M. Unggul Riyanti, Agus Rizal Mz, Syamsul Rosmida, Rosmida Roziqin, M. Choirur Roziqin, M. Choirur Ruliana Saiful Falah, Saiful Samsul Huda Samsul Huda Sarah, Huria May Sesilia Seli Shapie, Sinatu Sadiah Siswoyo, Eko Siti Rohani Sulfasyah Sulfasyah, Sulfasyah Syaari Utari, Ni’matul Aliyah Fajri W., Andri Permana W., Andri Permana Wahyu Widodo Widodo, Edi Wahyu Wina Rachmawan, Irene Erlyn Wina Rachmawan, Irene Erlyn Zaidi Bin Othman Zain, Andicha Zulfahmi Zulfahmi