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Nurul Fahmi
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APPLICATION OF TIME SERIES REGRESSION (TSR) AND AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) IN RICE PRODUCTION FORECASTING IN INDONESIA Fahmuddin S, Muhammad; Ruliana; Fahmi, Nurul
VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its application on Teaching and Research Vol. 7 No. 03 (2025)
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika Fakultas MIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/variansiunm412

Abstract

Rice production plays a crucial role in supporting food security in Indonesia. The annual fluctuations in rice yield necessitate accurate forecasting methods to support agricultural planning. This study aims to forecast rice production in Indonesia using two time series forecasting approaches: Time Series Regression (TSR) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The data used consist of monthly rice production from January 2020 to December 2024. The analysis results show that both methods are capable of modeling the data well, with high forecasting accuracy based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The TSR model yielded a MAPE of 13.838%, while the ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12model achieved a lower MAPE of 13.1439%, indicating that the ARIMA model provides more accurate forecasting results. This study is expected to serve as a reference for policy-making and strategic planning in rice production management in the future.
Co-Authors A. Syarifuddin, A. Syarifuddin Abbas, Ardiman Sudjiany Ahdani, Luthfiyah Ahmad Riva’i, Fuad Aimmah, Aisy Wildatil Akhir, Muhammad Akmal Indra Amalia, Irfa Nur Amang Sudarsono, Amang Andi Paida, Andi Anggita, Anggita Arif Widodo Arifin, Moh Aziz Asriani Asriani, Asriani Asyofi, Muhammad Nur Haris Azizah, Rini Azwardi Azwardi Bin Ikhwat, Mohamad Azwan Binti Mohd. Nasir, Fadhillah Christanto Syam Custer, Johny Dadet Pramadihanto Eko Prayitno Eko Prayitono Ekoprayitno, Ekoprayitno Fahmuddin S, Muhammad Faisal Ananda Faisal Ananda Fatchiatuzahro, Fatchiatuzahro Fitriani Fitriani Fitriani, Siti Hendra Saputra Idrus, Aderiza Cahya Ayu Restia Jannah, Muzlifatul Khairusuhada, Khairusuhada Latuf, Lingkan Haifa M Udin Harun Al Rasyid, M Udin Harun Maemonah, Maemonah Mahmud, Saifuddin Masturah, Rahmah Ma’arif, M. Samsul Milla Marlina Assegaf Mohammad WIJAYA Muhammad Arman Muhammad Danial Muhammad Rusdi dan Afritha Amelia - Nabila, Gina Nor Anisa Nordin, Mohd Nur Azmi Nuraeni, Erni Nurlina Nurlina Nurrahman - Pamenang, M. Unggul Riyanti, Agus Rizal Mz, Syamsul Rosmida, Rosmida Roziqin, M. Choirur Ruliana Saiful Falah, Saiful Samsul Huda Sarah, Huria May Sesilia Seli Shapie, Sinatu Sadiah Siswoyo, Eko Siti Rohani Sulfasyah Sulfasyah, Sulfasyah Utari, Ni’matul Aliyah Fajri W., Andri Permana Widodo, Edi Wahyu Wina Rachmawan, Irene Erlyn Zaidi Bin Othman Zain, Andicha Zulfahmi Zulfahmi