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Analisis Komparatif Metode Simple Moving Average Dan Single Exponential Smoothing Dalam Peramalan Kunjungan Wisatawan Domestik Dan Mancanegara Ke Provinsi Sulawesi Utara Sri Soeyati; Bet El Silisna Lagarense; Agustinus Walansendow
Jurnal Ilmu Pariwisata Vol. 4 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Ilmu Pariwisata
Publisher : UPT Penelitian Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Pariwisata Manado

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Abstract

The tourism sector in North Sulawesi Province has experienced significant fluctuations due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic since 2020, followed by a recovery phase up to 2025. This condition highlights the importance of accurate forecasting methods to support tourism planning and policy formulation. This study aims to compare the accuracy of two forecasting methods, namely Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), in predicting tourist arrivals. The study employs time series data on tourist arrivals obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of North Sulawesi Province for the period 2020–2025. The performance of both methods is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as the forecasting accuracy measure. The results indicate that the Single Exponential Smoothing method, with an appropriately selected α parameter, produces lower forecasting errors compared to the Simple Moving Average method. Therefore, SES is considered more suitable for forecasting tourist arrivals in North Sulawesi Province, which is characterized by dynamic and unstable data patterns.
Developing Marine and Coastal-based Sport Tourism on the Waterfront: The Case of Manado Waterfront, Indonesia Lagarense, Bet El Silisna; Walansendow, Agustinus
Journal of Indonesian Tourism and Development Studies Vol. 4 No. 3 (2016)
Publisher : Graduate School, Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/ub.jitode.2016.004.03.03

Abstract

There are many marine-based sports that have become universally popular as tourist attraction on waterfronts. This study aimed to examine the existence of marine and coastal-based sport tourism on the waterfront. They are dependent on certain types of coastal environment or condition including surfing, windsurfing, fishing, scuba diving, snorkeling, water-skiing and sailing and parasailing. Each of these activities has millions of regular participants. Tourism communities realize the value of marine sports attached to waterfront and marine sport events continue to grow in size and number. This study uses on-site observation and interviews to the people at and around Manado waterfront. The results show that a number of benefits can be realized by communities of all sizes that have developed a strategic marine sports tourism plan such as 1) economic development for the city with increased benefits to host community and to the city in general; 2) marine sports system development by hosting events that are strategically planned leading to increased capacity within the city's marine sport system; 3) social and community development with trained volunteers increases community pride and the opportunity to enrich facility infrastructure. The community needs to be well equipped with a high standard of knowledge, skills and attitude to be employed in marine sports tourism sectors. Keywords: marine and coastal-based sport tourism, waterfront. 
Pemberdayaan UMKM Kuliner melalui Inovasi Cocktail Mixology Saguer di Desa Wisata Darunu, Kab, Minahasa Utara, Sulawesi Utara Walansendow, Agustinus; Lagarense, Bet El Silisna; Pesik, Mex Usmeni; Pangemanan, Jemmy Rudolf; Tenda, Pratidina; Takaendengan, Mita Erdiati; Tuwaidan, Altje Ellen
Jurnal Abdi Masyarakat Indonesia Vol 6 No 2 (2026): JAMSI - Maret 2026
Publisher : CV Firmos

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54082/jamsi.2226

Abstract

Kegiatan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat (PkM) ini dilaksanakan di Desa Wisata Darunu, Minahasa Utara, dengan tujuan memberdayakan UMKM kuliner melalui inovasi cocktail mixology berbasis saguer sebagai produk lokal yang memiliki potensi pengembangan ekonomi hijau. Program ini melibatkan 20 pelaku UMKM kuliner dan pemuda desa sebagai peserta pelatihan, yang selama kegiatan dibekali keterampilan dasar mixology, inovasi resep cocktail berbasis saguer, teknik penyajian kreatif, serta strategi pemasaran digital. Metode pelaksanaan mencakup sosialisasi, demonstrasi, praktik langsung, dan pendampingan intensif. Hasil kegiatan menunjukkan bahwa 85% peserta mampu menghasilkan varian cocktail saguer dengan standar rasa, higienitas, dan estetika penyajian yang layak jual, serta berhasil mengembangkan minimal satu produk unggulan yang siap dipasarkan. Capaian lainnya adalah terbentuknya jejaring promosi bersama antara UMKM dan Pokdarwis Darunu untuk memperkuat branding desa wisata kuliner. Secara sosial-ekonomi, program ini meningkatkan kepercayaan diri pelaku UMKM, memperluas peluang usaha berbasis kearifan lokal, dan mendorong terciptanya lapangan kerja baru di sektor kuliner kreatif. Dengan demikian, inovasi cocktail mixology saguer terbukti berperan sebagai strategi pemberdayaan UMKM sekaligus mendukung pengembangan pariwisata berkelanjutan di Desa Wisata Darunu.
Pelatihan Eco-Kitchen Berbasis Komunitas untuk Peningkatan Keterampilan Pelaku Usaha Kuliner Lokal Desa Wisata Tumaluntung, Kab. Minahasa Utara, Sulawesi Utara Sangari, Fonny Erny; Lagarense, Bet El Silisna; Lumataw, Jane Arthur; Kumaat, Hendry Moudy; Walansendow, Agustinus; Lumare, Mercy Ariane
Jurnal Abdi Masyarakat Indonesia Vol 6 No 2 (2026): JAMSI - Maret 2026
Publisher : CV Firmos

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54082/jamsi.2239

Abstract

Program Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat (PkM) ini bertujuan memberdayakan pelaku usaha kuliner lokal melalui pelatihan eco-kitchen berbasis komunitas di Desa Wisata Tumaluntung, Kabupaten Minahasa Utara, Sulawesi Utara. Kegiatan difokuskan pada peningkatan keterampilan pengolahan makanan ramah lingkungan dengan memanfaatkan bahan lokal seperti batang pisang, singkong, dan kelapa. Metode pelaksanaan meliputi observasi partisipatif, diskusi kelompok terarah, dan praktik langsung. Hasil menunjukkan peningkatan keterampilan teknis peserta sebesar 78%, kesadaran lingkungan meningkat 85%, serta tercipta 12 produk inovasi kuliner lokal berbasis bahan alami yang siap dikomersialisasikan. Model eco-kitchen ini terbukti efektif dalam mengintegrasikan inovasi pangan lokal dengan prinsip ekonomi hijau dan pariwisata berkelanjutan, serta menjadi rujukan potensial untuk pengembangan pelatihan kuliner di desa wisata lainnya.