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Journal : JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

Estimasi Risiko Pada Saham PT. Gojek Tokopedia Tbk dan Expected Shortfall Menggunakan ARIMA-GARCH Model Amri, Ihsan Fathoni; Puspitasari, Linda; Priambodo, Danu; Azzahrani, Rahma Dewi; Haris, M. Al
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 5, No 2 (2024): Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jjps.v5i2.22552

Abstract

Evaluation of losses is very important when investing in stocks where an approach is needed to take into account risk, the approaches that can be used are Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. The purpose of this research is to estimate the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of PT. Gojek Tokopedia Tbk uses the time series model methodology. One year daily closing price of PT. Gojek Tokopedia Tbk will be used as a source of research data. During the time series modeling process, the ARIMA model is intended as an average model and the GARCH model for model volatility, both of which are used to predict stock movements. The average value and variance models are then intended to calculate the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of the stocks used, respectively. The results obtained for the VaR value were 0.088911 and the ES value was 0.122084. This shows that the ES method is superior in considering the risk of stock investment that has been analyzed. 
Co-Authors Abdul Ghufron Abidah, Khansa Ni'mal Abimanyu Arya Ramadhan Adhwaningrum, Arullah Salsabila Agi Khoerunnisa AHMADI Ainurrofiah, Safira Alambara, Ach Ridoi Ali Imron Ali Imron Alwan Fadlurohman Alya Febriyani Amalia Jihan Syafiqoh Amin Samiasih Amri, Ihsan Fathoni Amri, Saeful Amrullah, Ahmad Amrullah, Setiawan Andy Purnomo, Eko Angelina, Lea Anggoro, Vernanda Kresna Anne Mutiara Wardani Ariska Fitriyana Ningrum Arsusma, Jesicha Arya Praditya Arya, Abimanyu Astuti, Sofi Anggi Asyfani, Yusrisma athoni Amri, Ihsan F Aulia Dewi Gustiarni Aulia Fadhli Boer Ayesha Nayla Salsadella Ayomi, Nun Maulida Suci Ayu Wulandari Azzahrani, Rahma Dewi Barlian, Seftia Amelia Rizki Bunga Ayuningrum Choirudin, Mochamad Fahmi Cika Awani Ayuwida Dannu Purwanto Devina Nadifa Nur Aulia Diani, Nandini Lova Dzeaulfath, Muhammad Eny Winaryati Eny Winaryati Ermawati, Asti Evida Oktaviana Fabiola, Gwenda Fadhilah Azzahra Fadillah, Muhammad Reza Fauzi, Fatkhurokhman Fauzi, Fatkhurrokhman Fazia Risnita Widiyana Fazza Baita, Miftakhiyah Febrianti, Fatika Lovina Firdatul Fahria Firdaus, Falah Tinton Fisabilillah, Muh. Irodat Fitri Anjani Gautama, Rahmad Putra Ginasputri, Heppy Nur Asavia Haris, M Al Haris, M. Al Havinka Angel Salsabilla Hidayat, Muhamad Arif Hilma Hanna Mahanna Haqq Himmaturrohmah, Laily Husna, Rizqa El Iffah Norma Hidayati Ihsan Fathoni Ihsan Fathoni Amri Ikhwanudin, Muhamad Ilham Khairul Anam Imelya Susianti Indah Fitriyani Indah Manfaati Nur Indah Manfaati Nur Indriani, Anita Retno Inta Nur Kholifah, Revika Irawan, Alfian Chandra Izzah, Nasyiatul Kaia Raissa Akmalia Khikman, Muhammad Alvaro Khoirul Huda Kholifah , Revika Inta Nur Kinanta, Ailsha Syafa Latisa Alifa Maura Lein, Raymond Bolly Linda Puspitasari Mandala Adikara Sencoko Marsela Ayu Irdiana Masichah, Firochul Masudah, Nurhidayatul Miftakhul Haris Miftakhurizki Mochamad Hasyim Mualim Tahari Mufidatul Ulya Muhammad Hali Mukron Muhammad Rifqy Ardiansyah Muhammad Saifuddin Nur Multiyaningrum, Riska Musa, Fitri Diana Nadia Khoirunnafisa Salma Nandini Lova Diani Nikmah Handayani Ninu, Maria Febronia Nugroho, Muhammad Dimas Alfian Nur, Rachmat Kahfiwan Nurfuad, Khilmi Nurhalisa, Siti Nurhidajah Nurmalita, Rahma Nurohmah, Nufita Okiyanto, Rizal Pandiriyan, Muhammad Tegar Permata, Alia Prastiwi, Harvina Sindy Prastyo, Ikwan Pratama, Rifin Fadilla Pratama, Rizky Adi Priambodo, Danu Prissy Nusaiba Yulisa Prizka Rismawati Arum Purnama, Estyaningsi Purnomo Putro, Dwi Puspitasari, Linda Putra, Septian Malik Putri Wahyu Muharamah Putri, Agata Dwi Putri Putri, Melfia Verahma RA. Qonita Syalsabilla Handayani Rahma Nurmalita Ramadhan, Abimanyu Arya Ramadhan, Wulan Nur Rangga Sa'adillah SAP Ridwanulhaq, Alfina Fauziah Rochdi Wasono Rochdi Wasono Ryan Mahardika Sa'adah , Lydia Nur Safira, Elfina Latifah Safira, Rahma Salma, Nadia Khoirunnafisa Salsabila Rahma Anisa Salsabilla, Havinka Angel Sam'an, Muhammad Sanmas, Safril Ahmadi Saputri, Atika Dwi Sarah, Albertus Dion Sari, Selvi Ana Windia Sawiah Adam, Asriyanti Septi Winda Utami Septia, Siti Fajar Sesotyaning Harum Prabuningrat Shinta Amaria Sidqi, Isnaeni Miftahul Sintya, Salsabila Dhea Siti Hamidah Ardhy Suci Laeliyah Suci Mega Puji Lestari Suherdi, Andri Sulistiya, Indah Sulistiyani, Dwi Supriadin Supriadin Syafina Amira Firdaus Syaharani, Nabbila Dyah Tiani Wahyu Utami Tresiani Yunitasari Tri zahrotun Wahyuningsih Ulinuha, Samikoh Utami, Rossy Prima Nada Utiningtyas, Almas Rizki Wahid, Siti Nurasriyanti Wahyuningsih, Andria Watur, Annisa Cahyaningrum Widiyanti, Karin Dita Widyasari, Velia Arni Wulan Sari Wulan Sari, Wulan Yolan Triky Yulia Fitri Yulia Nur Kumala Yulianita, Tanti