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All Journal Niagawan Jurnal Promosi Pendidikan Ekonomi Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Quantitative Economics Journal IKRA-ITH EKONOMIKA JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Jurnal Mantik EDUTEC : Journal of Education And Technology Equity: Jurnal Ekonomi JURPIKAT (Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat) GOVERNANCE: Jurnal Ilmiah Kajian Politik Lokal dan Pembangunan International Journal of Social Science, Educational, Economics, Agriculture Research, and Technology (IJSET) JURNAL TEKNOLOGI INFORMASI & KOMUNIKASI DALAM PENDIDIKAN Innovative: Journal Of Social Science Research Indonesian Journal of Multidisciplinary on Social and Technology International Journal of Economic, Technology and Social Sciences (Injects) Fokus Bisnis: Media Pengkajian Manajemen dan Akuntansi Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, Akuntansi Outline Journal of Community Development SCHOULID: Indonesian Journal of School Counseling Economit Journal
Eko Wahyu Nugrahadi
Universitas Negeri Medan
Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Dentistry Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Public Health Social Sciences Other

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GEOPOLITICAL RISK AND MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS IN INDONESIA: EVIDENCE FROM 2020-2025 Meuthia Nurul Soraya; Dede Ruslan; Eko Wahyu Nugrahadi
International Journal of Social Science, Educational, Economics, Agriculture Research and Technology (IJSET) Vol. 5 No. 8 (2026): JULY
Publisher : RADJA PUBLIKA

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Abstract

This study analyzes the effect of geopolitical risk and macroeconomic variables on the dynamics of the rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia during 2020-2025. The variables comprise the rupiah exchange rate, geopolitical risk, inflation, interest rate, world oil price, and foreign exchange reserves. Monthly secondary data were examined using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), supported by the Phillips-Perron unit root test, optimal lag selection, VAR stability test, Johansen cointegration test, Impulse Response Function (IRF), Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD), and Block Exogeneity Wald Test. The findings show two cointegrating relationships, indicating a long-run equilibrium among the variables. In the short run, geopolitical risk significantly affects rupiah exchange rate dynamics. In the long run, inflation, interest rate, world oil price, and foreign exchange reserves are associated with the rupiah exchange rate. IRF results indicate that geopolitical risk shocks initially generate a negative response, then a positive response, before gradually stabilizing. FEVD results show that in the tenth period, rupiah exchange rate variation is mainly explained by its own shock (71.52%), followed by geopolitical risk (14.01%) and world oil price (12.81%).
Co-Authors Ahmad Habibi Harahap Anestesia Situmorang Anisa Calista Situmorang Armayanti, Nelly Azhar Suganda Azizul Kholis Azizul Kholis Dede Ruslan Dedy Husrizal Syah, Dedy Husrizal Dita Eka Pertiwi Sirait Efendi Napitupulu Effi Aswita Lubis Fildzah Darayani Mujasmara Firka Christin Hutasoit Fridayani M. Sitio Gaffar Hafiz Sagala Gartima Sitanggang Grace Gultom Haikal Rahman Hamonangan Nasution Hanna Hotmian Br Silalahi Henry Iskandar Hotmaria Silva Dewi Naibaho Humisar Sihombing Hutasuhut, Saidun Indra Maipita Jesaya Kemalementa Karo-Karo Jesika Jesika Jumiadi AW Khafi Puddin Khairun Nikmah Sinaga Khoirunnisa Nst La Ane Meuthia Nurul Soraya Muammar Rinaldi Muhammad Yusuf Muslim Noni Rozaini Novi Ramadhini Novrida Siregar Nur Basuki Pasca Dwi Putra Putri Nabila Harahap Rebecka Tri Talita Panggabean Rizki Samora Muliana Salsabila Fayza Sayyidina Sena Samosir Silvia Agustin Manullang Siregar, Zulkarnain Suprapto Tauada Silalahi Taufik Hidayat Vidia Wardana