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MODELING CHRONIC FILARIASIS CASES IN WEST JAVA USING A MULTIVARIATE ADAPTIVE APPROACH REGRESSION SPLINES Kurniawan, Ardi; Firmansyah, Mochammad; Saifudin, Toha
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 2 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss2pp1249-1260

Abstract

One of the most crippling infectious diseases in the world is filariasis. Indonesia is a unitary country with 34 provinces, where West Java is one of the 5 provinces with the most filariasis sufferers in Indonesia as of 2021. Reinfection occurs in places that have implemented POMP. Therefore, monitoring operations must be carried out to track the emergence of new cases and risk factors for transmission. The aim of this research focuses on describing and modeling the number of chronic filariasis in West Java, as well as interpreting the best model results obtained. The method used is a method with a nonparametric regression approach, namely Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline. The results of the research show that the best model obtained is a combination of 15 base functions, maximum interaction 2, and minimum observation between knots 1. From this model, the predictor variable that has the most influence on the response variable in order based on the level of variable importance is the Percentage of Population Access to Facilities Decent Sanitation, Percentage of Households with Clean and Healthy Behavior (PHBS), Sex Ratio, and Percentage of Poor Population. The interpretation of the best model is that the variable Percentage of Population Access to Adequate Sanitation Facilities above 6,650% will contribute to a reduction in the number of chronic filariasis; the Sex Ratio variable below 103,300 will contribute in the form of a reduction in the number of chronic filariasis. it can be seen that the predictor variable that has the most influence on the response variable is the variable Percentage of Population Access to Proper Sanitation Facilities with an importance level of 100%.
PROVINCIAL SEGMENTATION IN INDONESIA: EXPLORING FACTORS INFLUENCING EDUCATION WITH SEM-PLS METHOD, INCORPORATING MODERATION EFFECTS AND FIMIX-PLS APPROACH Vanisa, Davina Shafa; Rahmanita, Tentri Ryan; Ana, Elly; Kurniawan, Ardi
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 3 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1955-1962

Abstract

The significance of education as a developmental metric is underscored by its designation as the 4th goal in the SDGs, which emphasizes ensuring inclusive, equitable, and high-quality education while also expanding lifelong learning opportunities for all. This research relies on two primary sources: secondary data from publications by the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS RI) in 2023 and the BPS website. The educational variables examined in this study are believed to be influenced by latent variables, including school performance, infrastructure, and poverty levels. Employing the Finite Mixture Partial Least Squares (FIMIX-PLS) approach, the research identified 13 valid and reliable indicators of educational variables. It delineated three regional groups based on the lowest BIC and CAIC values. In this structural equation research, the moderation effect is seen in the significance of the indirect relationship, especially the influence of Regional Poverty on Education with School Outcomes as a moderating construct.
COMPARISION OF RICE PRICE PREDICTION RESULTS IN EAST JAVA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND GAUSSIAN KERNEL ESTIMATOR SIMULTANEOUSLY Sadikin, Adnan Syawal Adilaha; Reswara, Aqil Azmi; Mardianto, M. Fariz Fadillah; Kurniawan, Ardi
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 3 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1963-1974

Abstract

Extreme weather changes and the El Nino phenomenon in 2023 will cause drought, resulting in a decrease in rice production and an increase in rice prices. It has significantly impacted East Java Province as it is the most extensive rice supplier in Indonesia. This study aims to predict the price of rice with six different qualities using the Fourier series estimator and Gaussian kernel function simultaneously. The results show that the Gaussian kernel method, with a bandwidth value of 1, produces a better model with a MAPE value of 0.228259% than the sine function Fourier series method in predicting rice prices based on six different qualities. The prediction results using the Gaussian kernel function method are categorized as highly accurate because they are less than 10%. This research accelerates the realization of SDG 2 related to "Zero Hunger" through government policies to control the high price of rice in Indonesia. Recommendations that can be given through the research results include cooperation with the government, which can help access information and resources needed to manage price risks.
MODELING EMPLOYEE RESIGNATION USING A SEMIPARAMETRIC APPROACH COX PROPORTIONAL HAZARD Sari, Ni Wayan Widya Septia; Kurniawan, Ardi; Ana, Elly
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 4 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss4pp2471-2478

Abstract

Survival analysis is a research method that studies the duration individuals or experimental units endure against events like death, disease, recovery, or other experiences. This study employs a semi-parametric survival analysis model using the Cox proportional hazards regression method to identify factors such as age, gender, marital status, and education influencing how long employees stay with a company before resigning. The aim is to describe and interpret significant factors affecting employee resignation using the Cox Regression method. The results indicate that age significantly influences employee tenure. The average tenure is eight years. The probability of an employee still working at age 32 for up to eight years is 0.0057, while the likelihood for an employee who has worked more than eight years at age 32 is 0.9943. The study uses secondary data on the tenure of 521 employees, analyzed with the Cox proportional hazards regression method. The data, however, has limitations due to type III censoring, where some subjects leave observation, resulting in incomplete data. The study concludes that age significantly impacts employee tenure. Younger employees tend to explore career opportunities, while older employees seek stability, pension benefits, and a comfortable work environment.
Modifikasi Permainan Monopoli untuk Meningkatkan Pengetahuan Umum Siswa Kelas VI SD Kurniawan, Ardi; Kusuma Wardhana, Feri; Setiyawan, Muhammad
Prosiding Seminar Nasional Teknologi Informasi dan Bisnis Prosiding Seminar Nasional Teknologi Informasi dan Bisnis (SENATIB) 2025
Publisher : Fakultas Ilmu Komputer Universitas Duta Bangsa Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47701/0dfmg263

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan dan menguji media pembelajaran berbasis permainan dengan memodifikasi permainan Monopoli sebagai sarana meningkatkan pengetahuan umum siswa kelas VI SD. Metode yang digunakan meliputi studi literatur, penentuan materi, pengembangan prototipe permainan, serta uji coba lapangan terhadap siswa dan teman sejawat. Permainan dirancang dengan mengintegrasikan materi pengetahuan umum ke dalam elemen permainan seperti kartu soal, tantangan, dan sistem poin. Hasil uji coba menunjukkan bahwa permainan mudah dipahami, menarik, dan menyenangkan untuk dimainkan. Rata-rata skor angket sebesar 93% menempatkan permainan dalam kategori sangat baik. Respons positif dari siswa menunjukkan bahwa permainan ini berhasil menciptakan pengalaman belajar yang interaktif dan memotivasi. Berdasarkan teori konstruktivisme dan social constructivism, permainan ini mendorong keterlibatan aktif siswa melalui diskusi dan kerja sama, serta memfasilitasi pemahaman yang lebih bermakna. Selain itu, berdasarkan pendekatan Cultural-Historical Activity Theory (CHAT), permainan ini berfungsi sebagai alat mediasi budaya yang efektif dalam pembelajaran kontekstual. Dengan demikian, modifikasi permainan Monopoli terbukti layak digunakan sebagai alternatif media pembelajaran pengetahuan umum yang mampu meningkatkan minat dan pemahaman siswa di tingkat sekolah dasar.
TRAINING ON USE OF USER-FRIENDLY R-SHINY PROGRAM FOR DETERMINING NUTRITIONAL STATUS OF TODDLERS AT POSYANDU IN THE WORKING AREA OF THE SOBO BANYUWANGI COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER Chamidah, Nur; Kurniawan, Ardi; Saifudin, Toha; Easyfa Wieldyanisa, Ezha; Insania Dewanty, Sanda; Azizah, Khansa
Jurnal Layanan Masyarakat (Journal of Public Services) Vol. 9 No. 3 (2025): JURNAL LAYANAN MASYARAKAT
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/.v9i3.2025.406-418

Abstract

Stunting is a form of malnutrition that serves as an important indicator for monitoring the growth and development of toddlers. However, assessing the nutritional status of toddlers does not stop at stunting, but includes a comprehensive understanding of the child's nutritional condition in real time, especially by mothers who have toddlers. Although the prevalence of stunting in Indonesia has decreased, achieving the target reduction to 14% by 2024 still requires significant efforts. This community service activity aims to improve the nutritional literacy and technical skills of posyandu cadres and mothers of infants in utilizing a user-friendly R-Shiny-based application, both in web and Android versions. This application allows users to input anthropometric data of infants (weight-for-age, height-for-age, and BMI-for-age), and then automatically generates growth charts based on reference standards. The activity was conducted in a hybrid format on June 29, 2024, with a total of 69 participants (35 offline cadres and 34 online cadres). Evaluation results showed a significant increase in cadres' knowledge, with an average post-test score (76.81) higher than the pre-test score (71.66) and a p-value from the paired t-test of 0.008. Additionally, participants gave high satisfaction scores, with an average above 75 on all indicators. The program also provides intensive mentoring and long-term monitoring to ensure smooth application use. With a data-driven approach sensitive to regional characteristics, this program is expected to serve as an innovative, sustainable, and replicable community service model in other areas to accelerate stunting reduction efforts.
MODELING FACTORS CAUSING ALZHEIMER’S DISEASE USING LOGIT, PROBIT, AND GOMPIT LINK FUNCTIONS IN GENERALIZED LINEAR MODEL Kurniawan, Ardi; Budijono, Gabriella Agnes; Siagian, Kimberly Maserati; Abdillah, Adrian Wahyu
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 4 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss4pp2877-2890

Abstract

This study addresses the ongoing challenge of clarifying the risk factors contributing to Alzheimer's disease, a neurodegenerative condition marked by progressive cognitive decline and memory dysfunction, with cases rising globally. To provide a more accurate and comprehensive understanding of the predictors associated with the disease, this research models the contributing factors using logit, probit, and gompit link functions within the Generalized Linear Model (GLM). Utilizing secondary data from 2024, which includes predictor variables such as age, family history, head injury, hypertension, memory complaints, and behavioral disturbances, this research models the relationship between these variables and Alzheimer's diagnosis. The analysis finds that the logit, probit, and gompit link functions yield significant results in identifying risk factors associated with Alzheimer's diagnosis, particularly memory complaints and behavioral disturbances. The gompit link is selected as the best model due to its highest deviance R-squared value of 30.01%, indicating better reliability in predicting Alzheimer's diagnosis than other models. This GLM approach provides insights to support early prevention and intervention efforts for Alzheimer's disease and contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) number 3 on good health and well-being.
Survival Time Analysis of Multiple Myeloma Patients using Type 1 Censored Exponential Distribution Parameter Estimation Wahyu Subekti, Cahya Arsyika; Nilasari, Inas; Syarif, Devi Mufidah; Syahzaqi, Idrus; Kurniawan, Ardi
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 9, No 3 (2025): July
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v9i3.32179

Abstract

Multiple myeloma is a type of blood cancer that attacks plasma cells in the bone marrow and affects the immune system. This study analyzes the survival time of patients with multiple myeloma using Type 1 censored exponential distributed parameter estimation. The data, consisting of 47 patients (35 uncensored and 12 censored), were tested for exponential distribution fit using the Anderson-Darling test, yielding a p-value of 0.495, confirming the suitability of the exponential model. The maximum likelihood estimation method was applied, resulting in a parameter estimate (θ ̂) of approximately 54.028 days, representing the mean survival time. Hypothesis testing and confidence intervals were conducted, with the 95% confidence interval for θ_0 ranging between 32 and 53 days. The findings suggest that the exponential distribution effectively models the survival data, providing insights into patient survival trends and supporting clinical decision-making.
IMPROVING EDUCATION AND DETERMINING THE NUTRITIONAL STATUS OF TODDLERS IN REALIZING NUTRITION-CONSCIOUS FAMILIES IN BANYUWANGI USING R-SHINY Chamidah, Nur; Kurniawan, Ardi; Saifudin, Toha; Sa'idah, Andini; Widyawati, Ayu; Fajrina, Sofia
Jurnal Layanan Masyarakat (Journal of Public Services) Vol. 8 No. 1 (2024): JURNAL LAYANAN MASYARAKAT
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/jlm.v8i1.2024.061-073

Abstract

Stunting is a condition where a child's development and growth is disturbed, which has long-term impacts, including the potential for impaired brain development due to insufficient cognitive development and a greater risk of developing chronic diseases such as diabetes, hypertension, obesity, cancer, and so on. One effort to reduce stunting rates is to increase knowledge of nutrition awareness in the family. UNAIR Statistics Study Program, participates in efforts to reduce stunting rates with community service activities (Pengmas), in the form of outreach activities regarding basic and practical knowledge in the form of workshops and training activities using R-Shiny based WEB and Android to determine the nutritional status of toddlers which can used anywhere and anytime. This community service activity was carried out in the working area of "‹"‹the Tampo Community Health Center, Banyuwangi, East Java, involving 62 female cadre representatives from 31 local posyandu. The results of this community service activity can increase knowledge regarding education and nutrition knowledge for toddlers in the context of achieving nutrition-aware families. This is proven by the results of statistical analysis of pre-test and post-test scores which conclude that there is an increase in scores from pre-test to post-test with a significance level of 5%. Based on the results of the feedback questionnaire given to participants, the posyandu cadre mother felt very satisfied with an average score of 86, gained useful knowledge, and made it easier for posyandu cadres to find out the nutritional status of toddlers.
Bayes Estimator of Exponential Distribution Parameters of Type II Censored Data with Linear Exponential Loss Function Method Based on Jeffrey Priors Previan, Anggara Teguh; Kurniawan, Ardi; Mardianto, M. Fariz Fadillah; Sediono, Sediono
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 4, No 2 (2023): Jambura Journal Of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jjps.v4i2.22549

Abstract

Survival analysis is often used in the application of analyzing the survival of an object such as living things or objects. This analysis is identical to data censoring which is divided into three, namely: type I, II, and III censored data. Type II censored data is data censoring done by determining the number of objects to be analyzed  from the total number of observation objects . Type II censored data is used when the analysis is intended to maximize the results of the analysis. Bayesian Linear Exponential (LINEX) loss function is one method that can be used to estimate parameters in survival analysis by minimizing the expected value of LINEX. The purpose of this study is to determine the Bayesian LINEX loss function parameter estimation on type II censored data using exponential distribution. This method uses the concept of posterior distribution and prior distribution. The prior distribution used is the Jeffrey prior distribution which has objective properties and is based on Fisher information theory The application of the parameter estimation results is carried out on the survival data of lung cancer patients obtained from the North Central Cancer Treatment Group. Based on the results of parameter estimation, it is concluded that the greater the value of the controller  (a) can produce a smaller value of parameter estimation results (θ^) . The results of this study can be used as a reference in conducting survival tests using type II censored exponential distribution data using the LINEX loss function method based on Jeffrey priors.
Co-Authors Abdillah, Adrian Wahyu Abdul Rochim Adriadi, Rekho Alda Fuadiyah Suryono Alfinda Novi Kristanti Alghifary, M Husain Haekal Alisiah, Rindiani Ahmada Aminy, Aisyah Ana, Elly Arisa Olivia Putri Azizah, Khansa Brainvendra Widi Dionova Budijono, Gabriella Agnes DENOK SETIAWATI Dewanti, Maria Setya Easyfa Wieldyanisa, Ezha Faizun, Nurin Fajrina, Sofia Fatmawati Fatmawati FIRMANSYAH, MOCHAMMAD Fizkadana, Canada Mewa Herdianto, Muhammad Hendra Hermawan, Mohamad David Hude, Darwis Idrus Syahzaqi Insania Dewanty, Sanda Kusuma Wardhana, Feri M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto Maharani, Prima Marisa Rifada Marthabakti, CitraWani Meliana, Relin Mufida, Amanda Rosidatul Muhammad Setiyawan Najini, Robby Nera Umilia Purwanti, Nera Umilia Niam, Mohamad Faiqun Nilasari, Inas Nur Chamidah Nuraini, Risa Nurrohmah, Zidni Ilmatun Pratiwi, Firda Aulia Previan, Anggara Teguh Putri, Larisa Mutiara Rahmanita, Tentri Ryan Ramadhani, Azzah Nazhifa Wina Reswara, Aqil Azmi Rimuljo Hendradi Riza Firdaus, Muhammad Rofiah, Nur Sa'idah, Andini Sadikin, Adnan Syawal Adilaha Santoso, Rifaldi Wahyu Saputra, Kalvin Sari, Ni Wayan Widya Septia Sediono, Sediono Sentosa, Martha Ayu Siagian, Kimberly Maserati Siregar, Naufal Ramadhan Al Akhwal Sri Indarti Suyono, Billy Christandy Syalsabila, Regitha Rianda Syarif, Devi Mufidah Titi Darmi Toha Saifudin Ubaidillah, Aziz Ulandari, Kartini Putri Vanisa, Davina Shafa Wahyu Subekti, Cahya Arsyika Widyangga, Pressylia Aluisina Putri Widyawati, Ayu Widyawati, Ayu Zulva Wulan Safitri, Wulan Wulandari, Nuryuliana