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All Journal JURNAL ILMIAH MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik Al-Khwarizmi: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Madaniya Abdimas Langkanae Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Ilmu Terapan (JPMIT) Jurnal Matematika, Komputasi dan Statistika JPNM : Jurnal Pustaka Nusantara Multidisiplin ARUS JURNAL SAINS DAN TEKNOLOGI Diophantine Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Lilis Laome
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Forecasting Farmer Exchange Rate (FER) in Southeast Sulawesi Province Using Cheng’s Fuzzy Time Series Method Rastina; Laome, Lilis; Abapihi, Bahriddin; Wibawa, Gusti Ngurah Adhi; Laome, Mukhsar; Laome, Makkulau; Sohibien, Gama Putra Danu; Sukim; Fathurrahman Yahyasatrio
Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik Vol 17 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Aplikasi Statistika & Komputasi Statistik
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/jurnalasks.v17i2.801

Abstract

Introduction/Main Objectives: This study aims to forecast the Farmer Exchange Rate (FER) in Southeast Sulawesi Province for 2024 as a basis for short-term economic assessment and policy-related analysis. Background Problems: FER is a key indicator of farmers’ purchasing power and agricultural welfare; however, its monthly dynamics are characterized by fluctuations and uncertainty, making conventional forecasting methods less effective in capturing its behavior. Novelty: This study contributes by implementing the the Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Cheng approach for FER forecasting in Southeast Sulawesi, emphasizing its suitability for handling vagueness and nonlinear patterns inherent in agricultural economic indicators. Research Methods: The analysis utilizes monthly secondary FER data obtained from BPS-Statistics of Southeast Sulawesi Province, covering the period from January 2014 to December 2023. Forecast accuracy is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Finding/Results: The forecasting results indicate that the FER values for January, February, and March 2024 are each estimated at 105.93. The model achieved a MAPE of 0.3027%, corresponding to an accuracy level of 99.6973%, which places the forecasting performance in the “excellent” category.
Co-Authors Adhi Wibawa, Gusti Ngurah Agusrawati Agusrawati Agusrawati Agusrawati Agusrawati Agusrawati, Agusrawati Alfian Alfian Alfian Alfian Amirullah Amirullah Andi Tenri Ampa Andi Tenri Ampa Andi Tenriawaru Anshari Nur, Muh. Nadzirin Arianti, Refika Allya Arif Nur Alfian Arman Arman Arman Arman Arman Asrul Sani Aswani Azizatun Nisa Baharuddin Baharuddin Baharuddin Bahriddin Abafihi Bahriddin Abapihi Bahriddin Abapihi Bahridin Abapihi Budiman, Herdi Dewa Ayu Susi Ardani Dian Christien Arisona Dian Cristien Arisona Djafar, Muhammad Kabil Edi Cahyono Edi Cahyono Edi Cahyono Ega Sarmita Fathurrahman Yahyasatrio Fredinan Yulianda Gubu, La. Gusti Arvyana Rahman Gusti Ngurah Adhi Wibawa Gusti Ngurah Adhi Wibawa Gusti Ngurah Adi Wibawa Ida Usman Ihwal, Muhammad Indra Alamsyah Irma Yahya Irma Yahya Iskandar Pattih Isma Indriyana Izal Izal Jufra Juharsah, Juharsah K, Raida Kohalsum, Askar La Gubu La Gubu la Ode Safiuddin La Ode Saidi La Pimpi Laome, Makkulau Laome, Mukhsar Makkulau Makkulau Makkulau Makkulau Makkulau Makkulau Makkulau Makkulau Makkulau Makkulau Muhammad Ihwal Muhammad Kabil Djafar Muhammad Zakaria Umar Muhtar, Norma Muhtar, Norma Muhtar Mukhsar Mukhsar . Nanda Fitriani Ningtyas, Rita Ayu Nirmala Norma Muhtar Norma Muhtar Norma Mukhtar Norma Mukhtar Nurhidayah, Raufika Rastina Rezky Abelia Ririn Prasasti Ruslan Ruslan Ruslan Ruslan Ruslan Ruslan Salsabilah, Adelfina Sohibien, Gama Putra Danu Sukim Tracy Chandra Umi, Enggar Cahyani Viska Inda Variani Wayan Somayasa Wibawa, Gusti N.A. Wibawa, Gusti Ngurah Adhi Yerlin Novan Zamrun F, Muh. Zelianti