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Hizir Sofyan
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Journal : Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics

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Rainfall forecasting by utilizing adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system in Aceh Besar District Sofyan, Hizir; Tatsara, Nidya; Yolanda, Yolanda; Usman, Tarmizi; Irvanizam, Irvanizam
Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics Vol 14, No 4: August 2025
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/eei.v14i4.8441

Abstract

Forecasting is a common thing to capture events in future based on previous information. However, some classical time-series methods, including moving average (MA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), and simple exponential smoothing (SES), have limitations in predicting nonlinear time-series data. Therefore, this paper aims to utilize the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model, a combination of the fuzzy inference system (FIS) and neural network architecture to forecast a nonlinear rainfall problem. This model can capture the non-linear data, adaptation capability, and speedy learning capacity. We used the data consisting of temperature (ºC), humidity (%), and wind speed (km/hour) as input variables and rainfall (millimeter) as an output variable at two stations and one rain post in Aceh Besar District, from January 2009 to December 2019. The results demonstrated that ANFIS with generalized Bell (gBell) membership function on epoch 10 can successfully conduct rainfall forecasting in Aceh Besar District with the best-predicted value. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the prediction at the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (MCGA) Station or Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) Indrapuri is 6.73% for 80% of the training dataset and 20% of the testing dataset.
Co-Authors A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W Agus Hendra Al Rahmad Ahmad Watsiq Maula Apriliansyah, Feby Arif Saputra, Arif Asep Rusyana Bahrun Bahrun Binti Firdaus, Shausan Dahlawy, Arriz Dimas Chaerul Ekty Saputra Earlia, Nanda Elly Elly Erliza Noor Faisal, Naidi Ghazi Mauer Idroes Hamdani M. Syam, Hamdani Heru Fahlevi Ibrahim, Husaini Idroes, Ghazi M. Irvanizam, Irvanizam Ismail Ismail Istakri, Dedi Jamil, T. M. Kemala, Pati Khairul, Moh Kruba, Rumaisa Linda Wahyuna Mardalena, Selvi Marshanda, Devira Marzuki Marzuki Maulana, Aga Maulydia, Nur Balqis Mikyal Bulqiah, Mikyal Mudatsir Mudatsir Muhamad Safiih Lola Muhammad Adam, Muhammad Muhammad Nasir Muhammad Subianto Muliadi Munawar Munawar Mustaqim Muzailin Affan Nasir Usman Noviandy, Teuku R. Nur Azmi, Nur Nurdjannah J. Niode Oktari, Rina S. Oktari, Rina Suryani Oktavia, Rini Pramana, Setia Purwoko, Agus RAHAYU, LATIFAH Rahmadhania Rahmah Johar Rasyid, Jusnaini Rimadeni, Yeni Rina S. Oktari Rinaldi Idroes Rusli Yusuf Safrizal Rahman Safrizal Rahman, Safrizal Salmawaty Arif Sasmita, Novi Reandy Suhendra, Rivansyah Syaridin, Syaridin Syazana, Nurul Syukri, Shara Tatsara, Nidya Teuku Rizky Noviandy TRINA EKAWATI TALLEI Ulfa, Elvitra Mutia Usman, Said Usman, Tarmizi Usnul, Uliyatul Yolanda Yolanda, Yolanda Yunus, Saifuddin