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All Journal Jurnal Gaussian Epsilon: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Terapan AKSIOMA: Jurnal Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika Jurnal Fisika FLUX Info-Teknik Jurnal Agro Industri Perkebunan Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Indonesian Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Dinamisia: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Anterior Jurnal Zero : Jurnal Sains, Matematika, dan Terapan Jurnal Pendidikan Jurnal Varian Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Nusantara Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Aufa (JPMA) Jurnal Pengabdian Ilung (Inovasi Lahan Basah Unggul) VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research Proceeding National Conference Business, Management, and Accounting (NCBMA) Jurnal Statistika Industri dan Komputasi RAGAM: Journal of Statistics and Its Application
Dewi Sri Susanti
Department Of Statistics, Universitas Lambung Mangkurat
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PERBANDINGAN HUKUM MORTALITAS GOMPERTZ DAN MAKEHAM DALAM KONSTRUKSI TABEL MORTALITAS INDONESIA IV Alya Nurhaliza; Dewi Sri Susanti; Aprida Siska Lestia
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 14, No 2 (2025): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.14.2.445-456

Abstract

Developing accurate mortality tables that reflect real conditions is a major challenge. Some researchers have proposed mortality laws using relatively simple equations that consider only age. Gompertz’s law accounts for the increasing risk of death with age, while Makeham’s law adds age-independent risk factors. This study aims to estimate the parameters of the probability of death function in both Gompertz and Makeham laws using the least squares method. The estimation process involves minimizing the squared error function of the mortality probability to form a normal equation. In this study, the resulting equation cannot be solved explicitly, a numerical approach using the Secant method is applied. The estimated parameters are then used to construct a mortality odds table, which is compared with data from the Indonesian Mortality Table IV. Model evaluation using the Mean Squared Error (MSE). The results of the analysis show that the Makeham model with the least squares method provides the best performance, indicated by the lowest MSE value of 0.0002002492 for men and 0.0003069904 for women. These findings indicate that the Makeham model outperforms the Gompertz model in constructing mortality tables using the least squares method.
Spatial Autoregressive Panel Model for Analyzing the Environmental Quality Index Alimatu Qurroti Ainina; Dewi Sri Susanti; Rony Riduan
Jurnal Varian Vol. 9 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v9i2.6384

Abstract

A region’s general environmental conditions are reflected in the Environmental Quality Index (EQI). In South Kalimantan Province, differences in EQI between districts and cities indicate that the contributing factors do not operate consistently, requiring an analysis that accounts for both spatial and temporal dimensions. The aim of this research is to apply a spatial panel data regression model to analyze the effects of population density, regional gross domestic product (GRDP), human development index (HDI), sanitation access, poverty rate, and economic growth on the EQI across 13 districts and cities in South Kalimantan over the period 2016–2023. The research method used in this study involves spatial regression models, namely the Spatial Autoregressive Fixed Effect (SAR-FE) and Spatial Error Model Fixed Effect (SEM-FE) approaches with a queen contiguity spatial weight matrix. The results of the study show a spatial relationship in the EQI data, with a Moran’s I of 0.2606 in 2016 and 0.1668 in 2017. This emphasizes the importance of spatial panel data modeling. With an AIC of 1322.378 and a coefficient of determination of 0.8112, SAR-FE is the best-fitting model. The modeling results indicate a significant spatial effect, whereby the EQI of a district or city is influenced by the EQI of its neighboring regions, such that changes in environmental quality in one area may affect surrounding areas. Furthermore, access to sanitation and the poverty rate do not significantly affect the EQI, whereas population density, GRDP, HDI, and economic growth are significant, indicating that environmental quality dynamics in South Kalimantan are shaped by socioeconomic factors as well as spatial interdependencies among regions. In order to improve environmental quality and minimize negative spillover effects across nearby regions, these findings emphasize the necessity of spatially integrated environmental policies that support sustainable economic growth, human development, and interregional coordination.
FORECASTING SAMBUNGAN PTAM: DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING & HOLT-WINTERS METHOD Cindy Maharani Mauliza; Dewi Sri Susanti; Khairizanurrahman
JURNAL STATISTIKA INDUSTRI DAN KOMPUTASI Vol. 10 No. 02 (2025): Jurnal Statistika Industri dan Komputasi
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi Informasi, Universitas AKPRIND Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34151/statistika.v10i02.5310

Abstract

Ketersediaan air bersih penting untuk kehidupan sehari-hari, dengan pertumbuhan penduduk mendorong peningkatan kebutuhan distribusi air. Salah satu indikator pemerataan layanan adalah penambahan sambungan baru, yaitu pemasangan instalasi air untuk pelanggan baru. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan kinerja tiga metode peramalan (Double Exponential Smoothing, Holt-Winters Additive, dan Holt-Winters Multiplicative) dalam meramalkan penambahan sambungan air baru pelanggan PT Air Minum Intan Banjar Cabang 1. Data yang digunakan adalah penambahan sambungan bulanan dari Januari 2019 hingga Desember 2024. Dari ketiga metode yang diuji, Holt-Winters Multiplicative menunjukkan hasil terbaik. Pada metode ini, dilakukan pengujian terhadap 27 kombinasi parameter, diperoleh kombinasi parameter terbaik yaitu α = 0.1; β = 0.5; γ = 0.1, yang menghasilkan akurasi terbaik dengan nilai MAPE 101.28, MAD 67.15, dan MSD 8546.45. Berdasarkan model terbaik tersebut, diperoleh prediksi bahwa pada bulan Mei 2025 akan terdapat 60 sambungan baru, dan pada bulan Juni 2025 sebanyak 58 sambungan baru.
Pemodelan Distribusi Spasial Hotspot di Kabupaten Banjar Menggunakan Log-Gaussian Cox Process Sigit Dwi Prabowo; Dewi Sri Susanti; Al Hujjah Asianingrum
VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its application on Teaching and Research Vol. 7 No. 02 (2025)
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika Fakultas MIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/variansiunm402

Abstract

Forest and land fires are recurring ecological and socio-economic disasters in Banjar Regency, South Kalimantan Province, with complex triggers. A deep understanding of the spatial distribution of fire risk is crucial for effective mitigation efforts. This study aims to model the spatial intensity of hotspots as a proxy for forest and land fires events in Banjar Regency and produce a fire risk surface map. The data used in this study are hotspot data from the siPongi website in Banjar Regency for the period 2013–2024, along with elevation data analyzed using the Log-Gaussian Cox Process (LGCP) spatial statistical model. The analysis results show that elevation has a negative but statistically insignificant effect on hotspot intensity, where fire risk tends to be higher at lower elevations. The LGCP model proved effective in capturing the complex spatial patterns of hotspot occurrences, separating trends driven by covariates and residual spatial clustering. The resulting risk intensity map successfully identified high-risk clusters, particularly concentrated in western districts dominated by peatlands and agricultural activities.
Co-Authors A. Fahmi Indra Yani Achmad Ramadhanna’il Rasjava Adzim, Muhammad Fauzan Ahmad Helmi Yasir Ahmad Yusuf Akbar, Arief Rahmad Maulana Al Hujjah Asianingrum Alimatu Qurroti Ainina Alya Nurhaliza Anggraini, Dewi Aprida Siska Lestia Arfan Eko Fahrudin Arif Rahman Hakim Arifin, Samsul Aulia Naylan Muna Aulia Syifa Annisa Az Zahra, Aisyah Nur Azkia Azkia Badruzsaufari Badruzsaufari Bizaini Bizaini Budi Kristanto Chairil Fachrurazie Cindy Maharani Mauliza Dewi Anggraini Dewi Anggraini DEWI ANGGRAINI Dian Handiana Dian Handiana Dina Musyarafah Dini Hidayati Eko Suhartono Etza Budiarti Febriani, Arika Fitriadi Fitriadi Fuad Muhajirin Farid Fuad Muhajirin Farid Genardi, Angelina Ivanna Geofani Setiawan Geofani Setiawan Hijriati, Naimah Hindarto, Imam Iwan Alfanie Izafera, Anis Huzaimanor Jainal Jainal Juhar Latifah Karim Karim Khairizanurrahman Krisdianto Krisdianto Krisdianto Sugiyanto Lalu Rudyat Telly Savalas Lestia, Aprida Siska Maisarah Maisarah Maisarah, Maisarah Muchamad Arief Soendjoto Muhamad Rafli Muhammad Ahsar Karim Muhammad Aldi Relawanto Muhammad Baqir Muhammad Fauzan Adzim Muhammad Meidy Maulana Muhammad Reza Faisal, Muhammad Reza Muhammad Saufi Mustika Khadijah Nayla Aisha Saydina Nila Cahya Noor Baitirahmah Noordyanti, Erna Nooriman, Raihan Nur Salam Nur Salam Nur Salam Nurul Azizah Nurul huda NURUL QOMARIYAH Oktaviani, Viona Oni Soesanto oni Soesanto Pamona Dwi Rahayu Rahma Dina Nur Azizah Rahman, Rifqi Aulia Rahmat Yunus Rahmi Hidayati Raihan Nooriman Raihan Nooriman Randy Toleka Ririhena Reja Fahlevi Rifqi Novriyandana Riza, Yusi Rizki Fatriasi Rizqi Elmuna Hidayah Rony Riduan Salsabilla, Rania Selvi Annisa Selvi Annisa Selvi Annisa Setiawan, Geofani Sigit Dwi Prabowo Sigit Dwi Prabowo Sila Rizqina Silvi Risaria Dewi Siti Nur Hamidah Soesanto, Oni Sri Cahyo Wahjono Sri Cahyo Wahyono Sri Mulyanie Hardiyanthy Suci Anshari Sunardi Susilo, Tanto Budi Sutomo Sutomo Syamsiar, Syamsiar Tetti Novalina Manik Thaibatun Nissa Thresye Thresye Thresye,, Thresye, Tiara Aninditha Tiara Elma Uthami, Mariza Viona Oktafiani Yeni Rahkmawati Yuana Sukmawaty Yulian Firmana Arifin Yulianti, Irma Sari Yuni Yulida Yuyun Hidayat