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All Journal JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi JURNAL PENGABDIAN KEPADA MASYARAKAT Edumatsains ZERO : Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan Sinkron : Jurnal dan Penelitian Teknik Informatika Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Abdimas Talenta : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Justek : Jurnal Sains Dan Teknologi MATRIK : Jurnal Manajemen, Teknik Informatika, dan Rekayasa Komputer Zero : Jurnal Sains, Matematika, dan Terapan JISTech (Journal of Islamic Science and Technology) JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Saintifik : Jurnal Matematika, Sains, dan Pembelajarannya AMALIAH: JURNAL PENGABDIAN KEPADA MASYARAKAT M A T H L I N E : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika MES: Journal of Mathematics Education and Science Jurnal Varian JURNAL PEMBELAJARAN DAN MATEMATIKA SIGMA (JPMS) Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Jatilima : Jurnal Multimedia Dan Teknologi Informasi Mandalika Mathematics and Educations Journal G-Tech : Jurnal Teknologi Terapan Range : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika Journal of Computer Science, Information Technology and Telecommunication Engineering (JCoSITTE) Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Journal of Computer Networks, Architecture and High Performance Computing KUBIK: Jurnal Publikasi Ilmiah Matematika Journal of Information Technology (JIfoTech) Leibniz: Jurnal Matematika Jurnal Info Sains : Informatika dan Sains INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CULTURAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE Journal of Mathematics and Scientific Computing With Applications Journal of Community Development and Disaster Management Journal of Comprehensive Science Journal of Analytical Research, Statistics and Computation Bersatu: Jurnal Pendidikan Bhinneka Tunggal Ika Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Jurnal Akuntansi Hukum dan Edukasi
Ismail Husein, Ismail
Department Of Mathematics, Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara, Medan, Indonesia
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COMPARISON OF ARIMA AND WINTERS METHODS ON SALES FORCASTING OF FURNITURE COMPANIES AT UD PODOMORO ASAHAN Ledya Frischa; Rina Filia Sari; Ismail Husein
ZERO: Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan Vol 6, No 2 (2022): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : UIN Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30829/zero.v6i2.13833

Abstract

Economic growth in Indonesia affects the need for household furniture. With the increasing demand, consumers have to wait a long time for the requested furniture. This causes sales to not be optimal due to consumer disappointment which results in cancellation of requests. The purpose of this research is to determine the optimal development of sales and make a production schedule based on the forecasting results obtained. The data of this research are window sales at UD. Podomoro Asahan from July 2016 to July 2021. The data was processed using the ARIMA and Winters methods and then compared between the two methods.The results of the study used the ARIMA method, namely using the ARIMA model (0,1,1) with an error value of MPE -0.079772% and MAPE 16.592778%. The results of the study used the Winters method, namely using the smoothing constant α=0.546225; β=0.259846; γ=0.116178; with MPE error value -0.39785% and MAPE 39.78471%.
ANALYSIS OF FACTORS INFLUENCING THE EVENT STUNTING WITH CHI-SQUARE METHOD APPROACH AUTOMATIC INTERACTION DETECTION IN NORTH SUMATRA Mei Yunina Arianti; Ismail Husein; Rina Widyasari
ZERO: Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan Vol 6, No 2 (2022): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : UIN Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30829/zero.v6i2.14783

Abstract

In statistics, one way to group (classify) a data mathematically is called classification. There are several types of classification methods, one of which is Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection, which is abbreviated as CHAID. CHAID method will be applied to North Sumatra stunting data. Stunting is a condition in which a person's height is shorter than that of other people of the same age. The dependent variable in the study was stunting, which was measured in infants aged 24-59 months, while the independent variable was a factor that affected stunting. The factors that influence the incidence of stunting in infants aged 24-59 months in North Sumatra based on the results of the analysis (CHAID) are family income, sanitation and water sources. From the results of the CHAID analysis, 5 different groups were obtained, namely: Infants aged 24-59 months who were stunted were infants with an economic income of IDR 1,000,000 - IDR 2,000,000 (98.4%) and inadequate sanitation (100%), Babies aged 24-59 months who are stunted are babies with an economic income of IDR 1,000,000 - IDR 2,000,000 (98.4%) and proper sanitation (93.2%), babies aged 24-59 months who are not stunted are infants with an economic income of Rp. 3,000,000 - Rp. 5,000,000 (95.5%). Infants aged 24-59 months who are not stunted are infants with an economic income of > Rp. 5,000,000 (99.5%) and adequate water sources (100%) and infants aged 24-59 months who are not stunted with an economic income of > IDR 5,000,000 (99.5%) and inadequate water sources (97.1%).
FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI LAJU KESEMBUHAN PASIEN TUBERKULOSIS PARU MENGGUNAKAN BAYESIAN MIXTURE SURVIVAL Nur Atsilah Hasibuan; Indra Jaya; Ismail Husein
Jurnal Analisis Riset, Statistik dan Komputasi Vol 1 No 1 (2022): Journal of Analytical Research, Statistics and Computation
Publisher : BPS PROVINSI SUMATERA UTARA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (427.492 KB) | DOI: 10.4590/jarsic.v1i3.3

Abstract

Tuberkulosis paru merupakan masalah yang belum bisa dituntaskan pada setiap permasalahan didunia. Indonesia menjadi negara teratas setiap tahunnya pada permasalahan ini, Tahun 2018 Sumatera Utara merupakan peringkat kelima dari permasalahan TB tertinggi, dan Medan merupakan peringkat teratas dengan kasus kejadian tuberkulosis terbanyak. Tuberkulosis adalah penyakit serius dan menular yang disebabkan karena bakteri Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengetahui faktor yang mempengaruhi laju kesembuhan pasien tuberkulosis paru dengan dua komponen. Pada penelitian ini digunakan metode Bayesian Mixture Survival hasil dengan hasil bahwa faktor yang mempengaruhi kedua komponen yaitu faktor usia dengan nilai 1.001 dan 0.994, . Maka faktor yang paling berpengaruh pada kesembuhan penderita tuberkulosis paru ialah umur , pasien yang lebih muda memiliki kecepatan kesembuhan sebesar 1 kali dibanding dengan pasien 1 tahun diatasnya.
ANALYSIS OF THE FACTORS THAT AFFECT THE ORIGINAL REGIONAL INCOME OF THE PROVINCE OF NORTH SUMATERA USING PANEL DATA REGRESSION Ika Junia Saputri; Sajaratud Dur; Ismail Husein
ZERO: Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan Vol 6, No 2 (2022): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : UIN Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30829/zero.v6i2.15032

Abstract

Regional Own Revenue is all revenue from the government at the regional level in a certain period, usually in a period of one fiscal year. There are several factors that can be used to increase Local Own Revenue. The factors used in this study are gross regional domestic product, number of tourists and restaurant taxes. This research was carried out using panel data analysis which is a combination of cross-sectional data (Districts/Cities in North Sumatra) and also time series (Regional Original Income 2015-2020). The best model obtained is the random effect model. From the value of Regional Original Income and these three factors, it was found that the results of Regional Original Revenue in North Sumatra had increased in 2015-2018, but in 2019-2020 Regional Original Revenue in North Sumatra had decreased. The variable that has a positive effect and also has a significant effect on Regional Original Income is the restaurant tax variable. The R2 value of this model is 0.78634, which means that the ability of the Restaurant Tax variable to explain the Regency/City Local Revenue variable in North Sumatra Province is 78.634%, while the remaining 21.366% is explained by other factors not included in the model.
Comparative Analysis of EGARCH and TGARCH Models in Stock Price Prediction Arya Impun Diapari Lubis; Sajaratud Dur; Ismail Husein
ZERO: Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan Vol 6, No 1 (2022): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : UIN Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30829/zero.v6i1.15133

Abstract

Stocks are proof of the value of ownership of a company which are usually sold on the capital market, companies that buy and sell their shares will be easy to find with the existence of the stock market. The fund obtained by the company from investors who invest in several companies. Investors need to understand the models valuation of stock prices because investors have interest with changes in share prices. The purpose of study for looking the difference of the EGARCH model with TGARCH as a comparison which one is better at predicting stock prices. This research is a quantitative study using the EGARCH and TGARCH models by use Quasi Maximum Likelihood (QML) method. It was found that ARIMA (1 0 1) EGARCH (3 4) is a model that shows the best performance based on the smallest AIC value and the significance of all parameters. The ARIMA (1 0 1) EGARCH (3 4) model formed for forecasting returns and volatility is as follows: with ARIMA (1 0 1) EGARCH (3 4) models also have the MAE (Mean Absolute Error) value is 0.044%.
Egarch Model Prediction for Sale Stock Price Ismail Husein; Machrani Adi Putri Siregar; Arya Impun Diapari Lubis; Rima Aprilia
Jurnal Varian Vol 6 No 1 (2022)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v6i1.1975

Abstract

Stock is an investment in the capital market that is very promising for investors. Investors can also get high returns from the shares invested. However, this stock price is not always stable, it can go up and down drastically. The purpose of this study is to predict stock prices because they often experience instability. The method used in this research is using the Exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model with the Quasi Maximum Likelihood (QML) method. The result of this research is the implementation of this model. The EGARCH model used is the stock price index model that is formed, namely the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (0, 1, 2) EGARCH (1.4). The conclusion from the results of the research that predictions using the ARIMA model (0, 1, 2) EGARCH (1, 4) is the best model in accommodating the asymmetric nature of the volatility of the stock price index. The results of this egarch model show more optimal prediction results seen from an error of 3% compared to other modes such as the arch model and the GARCH model.
PENERAPAN METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES-MARKOV CHAIN DALAM PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN SEBAGAI JADWAL TANAMAN PADI Yusra Habibah Laily; Fibri Rakhmawati; Ismail Husein
Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Vol. 4 No. 1 (2023): Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistik
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/lb.v4i1.235

Abstract

Rice plants are plants that depend on rainfall because it affects the productivity and quality of rice plants. The purpose of this study is to forecast rainfall in order to determine the right time to plant rice. This study uses the Fuzzy Time Series-Markov Chain method which is a hybrid Fuzzy Time Series method with a markov chain stochastic process. This study uses monthly rainfall data in Kab. Mandailing Christmas from January 2017- December 2022 in mm (millimeter). The data was taken online from the official BPS-North Sumatra website. The results showed that the Fuzzy Time Series-Markov Chain method has a MAPE value of 4.30% which means it has a very good forecasting accuracy value because it is less than 10%. So it can be concluded that forecasting with FTS-MC is a fairly good method in predicting rainfall so that it can forecast for the following month.
ANALISIS PENGENDALIAN PERSEDIAAN BAHAN BAKU TANDAN BUAH SEGAR (TBS) DENGAN METODE SIMULASI MONTE CARLO Cindy Artika; Sajaratud Dur; Ismail Husein
Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Vol. 4 No. 1 (2023): Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistik
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/lb.v4i1.241

Abstract

The development of palm oil production is quite rapid in Indonesia. The method used to estimate inventory costs in this study is the Monte Carlo Simulation method. Monte Carlo simulation is used in structuring optimal raw material policies. The purpose of this research is to predict and optimize raw material inventory costs for the future. The results of the total cost of raw material inventory by Monte Carlo Simulation Calculations are smaller than the total cost of inventory by company calculations. The total cost of preparation using Monte Carlo Simulation Calculations is Rp. 16,873,743,694. Meanwhile, the total calculation preparation costs obtained by the company amounted to Rp. 17,207,020,022, and savings of Rp. 333,276,328
PELATIHAN JARIMATIKA PADA MASYARAKAT DESA PANTAI CERMIN KANAN Rima Aprilia; Rina Widyasari; Rina Filia Sari; Hendra Cipta; Ismail Husein; Sri Ulfa Rahayu
AMALIAH: JURNAL PENGABDIAN KEPADA MASYARAKAT Vol. 7 No. 1 (2023): Amaliah: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : LPPM UMN AL WASHLIYAH

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32696/ajpkm.v7i1.2304

Abstract

Berhitung dalam matematika merupakan tantangan yang harus dikuasai oleh siswa sekolah dasar. Permasalahan yang dihadapi adalah matematika dan berhitung dianggap sebagai pelajaran menakutkan dan sulit, sehingga siswa malas dalam mempelajarinya. Berhitung merupakan dasar dari matematika yang dapat di aplikasikan pada kehidupan sehari-hari. Pelaksanaan pengabdian masyarakat di Desa Pantai Cermin Kanan ini untuk memperkenalkan teknik berhitung pada masyarakat dengan menggunakan jari yang dikenal dengan jarimatika. Teknik ini memanfaatkan jari-jari tangan untuk menyelesaikan permasalahan aritmatika yang dalam hal ini merupakan proses berhitung yaitu tambah, kurang, kali dan bagi. Metode pelaksanaan dilakukan dengan pengenalan, penyampaian materi, latihan dan tantangan serta evauasi. Dari kegiatan yang dilakukan, para peserta dapat mengikuti kegiatan dengan baik dan antusias, dimana jarimatika sangat efektif dilakukan dalam menghitung terutama memberikan visualisasi proses berhitung, sehingga para peserta dengan mudah melakukannya.
Analisis Strategi Optimasi Menggunakan Teori Permainan Dan Markov Chain Terhadap Persaingan E-Wallet Ella Nuhrul Huda; Hamidah Nasution; Ismail Husein
Journal of Comprehensive Science (JCS) Vol. 2 No. 7 (2023): Journal of Comprehensive Science (JCS)
Publisher : Green Publisher Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59188/jcs.v2i7.449

Abstract

Persaingan dunia digital semakin meningkat dengan pemanfaatannya dalam kegiatan masyarakat salah satunya adalah e-wallet. Penggunaannya yang cukup mudah dan efesien menyebabkan banyak masyarakat meminatinya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis strategi persaingan e-wallet yang optimal menggunakan metode matematika yaitu Teori Permainan dan Rantai Markov. Hasil penelitian yang diperoleh menunjukkan persaingan antara GoPay dan OVO menghasilkan strategi optimal yang sama yaitu promosi, keamanan dan praktis. Pada persaingan Dana dan OVO strategi optimal Dana adalah promosi dan keamanan. Sedangkan strategi OVO adalah keamanan dan praktis. Pada persaingan Dana dan GoPay strategi optimal Dana yaitu promosi, tempat, dan praktis. Sedangkan strategi GoPay adalah produk, promosi, dan tempat. Perpindahan merek menggunakan Markov Chain didapat probabilitas GoPay 0,486, OVO 0,303, dan Dana 0,212.
Co-Authors Abdi, Hamdan Achyar Zein Achyar Zein, Achyar Adella Aulia Mukti Adrya, M Rifqi Agusmanto J.B. Hutauruk Al Rizky, Muhammad Furqan Andayani Andini, Qonita Putri Anggraini, Arizka Anggreini, Yopie Puspita Arya Impun Diapari Lubis Arya Impun Diapari Lubis atika nadila Aurelia Anandara Ayunda, Afrila Azura, Maudya Nur Azura, Silva Cindy Artika Dalimunthe, Riska Aulia dame ifa sihombing Dedy Juliandri Panjaitan Dewi, Ratna Sri Dewi, taslima Dinda Chairani Dur, Sajaratud Dwi Anggraini Dwi Lestari, Riani Efriliya Hafni Yuswinda Elis Citra Elis Ella Nuhrul Huda Eva Yuliani Fadhillah, Nurul Faigle, Ulrich Fatharani Syahfitri Fauzah Umami Febrianti, Zelika Fransiska, Sintia Hamidah Nasution Hamidah Nasution Hamidah Nasution Hanifah Dara Puspita Hanum, Syarifah Harahap, Tramilta Salsabila Hasibuan, Hani Maulida Hendra Cipta Heni Pujiastuti Hidayah, Mega Nur Hsb, Sumawiyah Ika Junia Saputri Ikhsan, Ramadhani Al Ilka Zufria Indah Hatika Lubis Indra Jaya Indra Jaya Intan Irfanilia Jihan Adelia Nasution Jumiati, Ety Junita Fadilah Jusmita Weriza Karadeniz, Ahmet Serdar Karadeniz, Mehmet Fatih Khairan marzuki Khairina Khairina, Khairina Khairul Purqon Khairun Nikmah Khairun Nisa Khoiriah Syahfitri Ladia Sabrina Ledya Frischa Linda Kumala Sari Lingga, Eva Ridya Wanti M Fakhariza M. Abdul Rizki Marwan Marwan Maya Sari Maysarah, Maysarah Mei Yunina Arianti Mhd. Joni Marpaung Mingka, Muhammad Farhan Nafila Zendhia Ulhaq Nasution, Hamidah . Noranizamardia Noranizamardia Novianti Nur Atsilah Hasibuan Nur Hafizah Nuraini Ade Putri Lubis Nuriman Astuti Batubara Nurissa Aulia Nurul Huda Prasetya Nurul Khoiriah Hasibuan Ong, Aldi Maulana Pane, Maahfuzha Pane, Mahfuzha Panjaitan, Adelia Nopiazinda Br Panjaitan, Rio Anggara Pasaribu, Sarif Muda Pasya, Aulia Mumtazah Puan Salwa Afifah Putri Harahap, Riska Evita Rahayu, Atika Rahma Utami Rahmadani, Artika Rahmat Hutapea Rakhmawati, Fibri Riezky Meiliza Rima Aprilia Rima Aprilia Rima Aprilia Rima Aprilia Rina Filia Sari Rina Filia Sari Rina Filia Sari Rina Filia Sari Rina Widya Sari Rina Widyasari Rina Widyasari Rina Widyasari Rina Widyasari Riningsih, Novia Rinjani, Nazwa Riri Syafitri Lubis Rizka Ramadani Sam Rizky, Fadhlan Roshihan Mawazzi Lubis RR. Ella Evrita Hestiandari Sabrina, Ladia Sajaratud Dur Sajaratud Dur Sajaratud Dur Sajaratud Dur Sajaratud Dur, Sajaratud Sari, Dinda Permata Sari, Rina Widya Seprina, Dita Shedriko, Shedriko Siahaan, Maharani Putri Adam Sihombing, Dame Ifa Sinaga, Husnia Amro Br Sirait, Nurul Yusro Siregar, Machrani Adi Putri Siregar, R. Maisaroh Rezyekiyah Siti Aisyah Sitompul, Apri Yani Sri Ulfa Rahayu Suci Rachmadini, Haliza Syafitriani Syari, Isma Aulia Zamaakh Tamimi, Allifiyani Tri Kartika Chaniago Trima Lestari Ulrich Faigle Wahyu Dianti, Ika Thrisna Weber, Gerhard Wilhelm Widya Tantri Astuti Widyasar, Rina Widyasar, Rina Widyasari, Rina Widyasari, Rina Wulandari, Hamidah Yaumi Yumna Yusra Habibah Laily