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Perbandingan Regresi Linear dan Penalized Spline dalam Analisis Indikator Pendidikan di Indonesia Tahun 2024 Sarmilah, Sarmilah; Amalita, Nonong
Imajiner: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol 8, No 2 (2026): Imajiner: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas PGRI Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26877/imajiner.v8i2.26962

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan mengevaluasi kecukupan asumsi linearitas dalam memodelkan hubungan antara indikator sosial ekonomi dan rata-rata lama sekolah (RLS) kabupaten/kota di Indonesia tahun 2024. Secara khusus, penelitian ini memodelkan pengaruh kemiskinan, angka harapan hidup, dan pengeluaran per kapita terhadap RLS menggunakan regresi linear, menerapkan pendekatan penalized spline dalam kerangka Generalized Additive Model (GAM), serta membandingkan kinerja kedua pendekatan berdasarkan kriteria evaluasi statistik. Data yang digunakan mencakup 514 kabupaten/kota di Indonesia. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa regresi linear mampu mengidentifikasi pengaruh signifikan kemiskinan dan pengeluaran per kapita terhadap RLS, namun asumsi linearitas belum sepenuhnya memadai dalam merepresentasikan struktur hubungan antarvariabel. Pendekatan penalized spline menghasilkan model dengan kemampuan penjelasan variasi yang lebih tinggi dan nilai AIC yang lebih rendah dibanding regresi linear. Efek parsial menunjukkan adanya pola nonlinear, termasuk kecenderungan penurunan RLS yang semakin tajam pada tingkat kemiskinan tinggi serta pola diminishing return pada pengeluaran per kapita. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa pendekatan semiparametrik lebih representatif dalam analisis indikator pendidikan regional yang bersifat heterogen.
Regresi Panel dan Pemetaan Local Indicator of Spatial Association dalam Analisis Kemiskinan di Provinsi Bengkulu Nafandra, Bunga; Amalita, Nonong
Imajiner: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol 8, No 2 (2026): Imajiner: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas PGRI Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26877/imajiner.v8i2.26899

Abstract

Kemiskinan tetap menjadi masalah sosial yang menghambat pencapaian kesejahteraan masyarakat. Di Provinsi Bengkulu, persentase penduduk miskin pada periode 2019–2024 lebih tinggi dari rata-rata nasional. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi tingkat kemiskinan dan mengidentifikasi daerah berisiko tinggi di Provinsi Bengkulu melalui pendekatan regresi data panel dan pemetaan Indikator Lokal Asosiasi Spasial (LISA). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan partisipasi angkatan kerja, pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto regional, dan peningkatan indeks pembangunan manusia berkontribusi pada penurunan persentase penduduk miskin di Provinsi Bengkulu. Sementara itu, hasil analisis spasial lokal dengan LISA mengidentifikasi Kabupaten Bengkulu Selatan sebagai klaster tinggi-tinggi atau hotspot, yaitu daerah dengan tingkat kemiskinan tinggi yang dikelilingi oleh daerah dengan kondisi serupa. Berdasarkan temuan ini, diharapkan semua pemangku kepentingan, baik masyarakat maupun pemerintah, dapat berperan dalam meningkatkan kualitas dan kuantitas angkatan kerja, mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan memperkuat aspek pendidikan dan kesehatan yang mendukung peningkatan HDI. Selain itu, pemerintah perlu memberikan perhatian khusus dan intervensi pada Kabupaten Bengkulu Selatan sebagai daerah hotspot.
Using Statistical Software in Analyzing Educational Data: A Community Service to Mathematics Teacher’s in 50 Kota Regency Amalita, Nonong; Kurniawati, Yenni; Fitria, Dina
Pelita Eksakta Vol 1 No 2 (2018): Pelita Eksakta Vol. 1 No. 2
Publisher : Fakultas MIPA Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/pelitaeksakta/vol1-iss02/34

Abstract

Analyzing data using statistical software is an interesting work. Many teachers in 50 Kota regency lack of it. Given a workshop on data analysis using statistical software. There is increasing ability of teachers in analyzing data using simple statistical software. They are able to organize their data on education, i.e result of exam
Penanganan Ketidakseimbangan Multikelas pada Dataset Survei Kerangka Sampel Area menggunakan Metode SCUT Wilia Sondriva; Yenni Kurniawati; Nonong Amalita; Admi Salma
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 2 No. 2 (2024): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol2-iss2/163

Abstract

Area Sampling Frame (ASF) is a survey used by the Indonesian government to measure rice productivity in Indonesia. ASF survey is important data because accurate and high-quality rice productivity data is highly needed. There is extreme imbalance in the ASF survey data, thus requiring handling of this imbalance. SMOTE and Cluster-based Undersampling Technique (SCUT) is a method that can be used to address the dataset imbalance. SCUT combines oversampling using SMOTE and undersampling using CUT. The results from SCUT show that the number of data points in each class becomes balanced. Subsequently, a two-sample mean test is conducted to observe the mean differences between the original dataset and the dataset after handling. The results show that in the early vegetative, late vegetative, and harvest phases, the means are significantly similar between the original dataset and the dataset after handling, but in the generative phase, the means are not significantly similar. Therefore, synthetically generated data using the SCUT method generally exhibit similar mean characteristics.
Markov Chain Model Application for Rainfall Pattern in Padang City haniyathul husna; Dony Permana; Nonong Amalita; Fadhilah Fitri
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol2-iss3/179

Abstract

Rainfall is a natural phenomenon that includes climate variables and is observed every time in every place. Daily rainfall data is a time series data, which is random. It is a data transfer from one time to another which can be expressed as a state of light, medium, heavy or very heavy rainfall intensity. Rainfall prediction is needed for people's lives and supports the economy. In addition, rainfall prediction is an anticipation of prevention if high rain intensity will occur in a long time. One of the rainfall prediction methods that can be used is the stochastic process approach. Markov chain is part of the stochastic process that can be used for prediction of rainfall at the present time based on one previous time. The focus of this research is the application of Markov Chains for rainfall prediction. Through Markov chains, long-term opportunities for rainfall phenomena are obtained. This study will look at the rainfall pattern of Padang City using Markov chains and also to predict rainfall in Padang City. The results of predicting the weather conditions of Padang City with any rainfall conditions today are 36.9% for the chance of no rain tomorrow, 46% for the chance of light rain tomorrow, 10% for the chance of moderate rain tomorrow, 5.3% for the chance of heavy rain tomorrow, and 1.8% for the chance of very heavy rain tomorrow.The results of this study are expected to be a recommendation for parties directly involved in taking preventive measures due to rainfall.
Pengelompokan Wilayah Potensi Kebakaran Hutan dan Lahan di Pulau Sumatera Berdasarkan Titik Panas Menggunakan Metode CLARA Melda Safitri; Admi Salma; Nonong Amalita; Fadhilah Fitri
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol2-iss3/180

Abstract

Sumatera Island is one of the areas with the potential for forest and land fires in Indonesia. Sumatra Island has the largest oil palm plantation in Indonesia. The vast land area of oil palm plantations in Indonesia can increase the risk of fires due to land expansion by burning. In addition, the burning of peatlands in Sumatra can exacerbate the impact of forest and land fires. Forest and land fires on the island of Sumatra that occur every year can cause various negative impacts, indicating the need for countermeasures and prevention efforts to minimize the impact of forest and land fires. Hotspots can be used to detect fires in a region and help with prevention and countermeasures to reduce the impact of land and forest fires. Clustering the hotspot data allows one to obtain information on the presence of a fire in a given area as well as its potential status high, medium, or low. The clustering method used is the CLARA method. The CLARA method is a clustering method that breaks the dataset into groups. The advantages of the CLARA method are robust to outliers and effective for large data sets. The results of this research show that the CLARA method can be used for hotspot clustering with a silhouette coefficient of 0.53 in the use of 2 clusters. The analysis of the clustering results shows that cluster 1 is a cluster with low fire potential while cluster 2 is a cluster with high fire potential.
Vector Error Correction Model to Analyze the Impact of Exchange Rates and Money Supply on Inflation in Indonesia Faulina; Fadhilah Fitri; Nonong Amalita; Admi Salma
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol2-iss3/188

Abstract

This study analyzes inflation in Indonesia in relation to the influence of exchange rates and the money supply (M2), which pose challenges in controlling inflation amidst rapid economic growth. Data from the Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia (Kemendag) were used to investigate the relationship between exchange rates and the money supply (M2) on inflation using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results indicate that in the short term, inflation tends to decrease towards stability, with a strong exchange rate capable of reducing inflation, while an increase in the money supply slightly raises inflation. However, in the long term, inflation demonstrates a strong self-correction mechanism, with the influence of exchange rates and the money supply becoming limited. This model proves effective in forecasting inflation for the period from March to August 2024, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 19.59%.
Pemetaan Indikator Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Provinsi Sumatera Barat Menggunakan Analisis Korespondensi Berganda Vidhiya Addini; Dony Permana; Nonong Amalita; Admi Salma
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol2-iss3/190

Abstract

Economic growth is a key factor in sustainable regional development. This study employs Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) to explore the relationships among economic growth indicators in the districts/cities of West Sumatra Province. Data from 2022 provided by the Central Statistics Agency are used to analyze economic growth indicators, including Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) at Constant Prices (X1), Human Development Index (X2), Labor Force Participation (X3), Domestic Investment (X4), Government Expenditure (X5), and Balance Fund Allocation (X6). The results of MCA reveal complex relationships among these variables, with the first and second dimensions explaining approximately 44.43% of the data variance. The MCA plots visualize clusters of districts/cities based on their economic characteristics. From these plots, it is concluded that there are disparities in economic growth indicators in West Sumatra Province, with 11 districts/cities requiring special attention to achieve equitable and sustainable economic growth. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of regional economic disparities in West Sumatra Province and their relevance to more targeted and sustainable development policies.
Metode Density Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) dalam Mengelompokkan Provinsi di Indonesia Berdasarkan Kasus Kriminalitas Tahun 2022 Syifa Miftahurrahmi; Zilrahmi; Nonong Amalita; Tessy Octavia Mukhti
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol2-iss3/203

Abstract

Based on Central Statistics Agency 2023 data, in 2022 there was a significant increase in the number of crime cases in Indonesia compared to 2021, from 239,481 cases to 372,965 cases. The increase in the number of criminal acts occurred along with community activities that began to loosen up after the Covid-19 pandemic. The types of crimes that occur in Indonesia themselves vary, ranging from murder, theft, drug-related crimes, and others. This research will cluster provinces in Indonesia based on crime cases with certain types of crimes in 2022 using the Density Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) method. The results of the study are expected to help the government and police in an effort to deal with crime in Indonesia. Clustering using the DBSCAN method produces 2 clusters with a silhouette coefficient value of 0,68. The resulting cluster is cluster 0 with noise category consisting of 5 provinces with a high number of crime cases, while cluster 1 consists of 29 provinces with a low number of crime cases.
Application of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines for Modeling Stunting Toddler on The Island of Java Dzakyyah Rahma; Nonong Amalita; Yenni Kurniawati; Zamahsary Martha
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 2 No. 3 (2024): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol2-iss3/205

Abstract

Stunting is a chronic nutritional problem experienced by toddlers, characterized by a shorter body height compared to children their age. The aim of this research is to model and determine the factors that influence Stunting on The Island of Java using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS). MARS is a modeling method that can handle high-dimensional data. The results of this study show that the best MARS model is a combination (BF=24, MI=3, and MO=2) with a minimum GCV value of 0.9475. Based on the model, the factors that significantly influence Stunting on the island of Java are babies receiving complete basic immunization (X4), babies getting exclusive breastfeeding (X3), pregnant women getting K4 (X1), and pregnant women getting TTD (X2). The level of importance of each variable is 100%, 81.64%, 60.38%, and 43.90%. Based on research results, babies receiving complete basic immunization is the variable that most influences stunting on The Island of Java in 2021.
Co-Authors Abilya Amanda Ade Eriyen Saputri Adinda Dwi Putri Aldwi Riandhoko Ali Asmar Amelia Fadila Rahman Andini Yulianti Anggi Adrian Danis Anjelisni, Nining Annisa Rizki Amalia april leniati Arnellis Arnellis Atika Ahmad Atus Amadi Putra Azwar Ananda Chairina Wirdiastuti Cindy Febrianita Denia Putri Fajrina Dewi Febiyanti Dewi Murni Dina Fitria Dina Fitria Dina Fitria, Dina Dodi Vionanda Dodi Vionanda Dony Permana Dwi Sulistiowati Dwi Sulistiowati, Dwi Dzakyyah Rahma Edwin Musdi Elita Zusti Jamaan Elsa Oktaviani Fadhilah Fitri Fadhilah Fitri Fadilah, Salwa Hifa Fajrin Putra Hanifi Fatma Yulia Sari Faulina FAZHIRA ANISHA Fenni Kurnia Mutiya Fitri, Fadhilah Gezi Fajri Ghaly, Fayyadh Hamida, Zilfa Hana Rahma Trifanni Hanifa Hasna haniyathul husna Helma Helma Helma Helma Herlena Purnama Sari Hidayatul Fikra Huriati Khaira Ichlas Djuazva Inna Auliya Jihe Chen Juwita Juwita Khairani, Putri Rahmatun Lilis Sulistiawati Media Rosha Media Rosha Meira Parma Dewi Melda Safitri Melly Kurniawati Minora Longgom Mohammad Reza febrino Mudjiran Mudjiran Muhammad Tibri Syofyan nabillah putri Nadha Ovella Syaqhasdy Nafandra, Bunga natasyalinggaa Natasya Dwi Ovalingga Nindi Syahfitrri Nini Erdiani Nur Leli Nur Nur Fadillah Nurhizrah Gistituati Okia Dinda Kelana Oktaviani, Bernadita Permana, Dony Prida Nova Sari Puti Utari Maharani Putri fajriyanti nur Resti Febrina Retsya Lapiza Rizqia Salsabila Rusdinal Rusdinal Saddam Al Aziz Salma, Admi Sarmilah, Sarmilah Seif Adil El-Muslih Shavira Asysyifa S Sujantri Wahyuni Suparman Suparman Swithania Rizka Putri Syafriandi Syafriandi Syafriandi Syafriandi Syafriandi Syifa Miftahurrahmi Tamur, Maximus Tessy Octavia Mukhti Tessy Octavia Mukhti Tri Wahyuni Nurmulyati Venny Oktarinda Vidhiya Addini Viola Yuniza Wella Saputri Wilia Sondriva Wulan Septya Zulmawati Yarman Yarman, Yarman Yenni Kurniawati Yulia Pertiwi Zamahsary Martha Zilla Zalila Zilrahmi, Zilrahmi