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Sardianto Markos Siahaan
Pendidikan Fisika, Universitas Sriwijaya
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Machine Learning to Predict Climate Change in Coastal Areas of Indonesia Huriyatul Firdausi; Melly Ariska; Sardianto Marcos Siahaan; Hamdi Akhsan; Yenny Anwar; Iin Seprina; Taufiq Taufiq
BULETIN FISIKA Vol. 27 No. 1 (2026): BULETIN FISIKA
Publisher : Departement of Physics Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, and Institute of Research and Community Services Udayana University, Kampus Bukit Jimbaran Badung Bali

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/BF.2026.v27.i01.p05

Abstract

Indonesia's coastal regions face significant threats from climate change, including rainfall uncertainty, rising temperatures, and sea level rise. This study aims to explore the potential of machine learning algorithms in predicting climate parameter changes in the coastal areas of Minangkabau, Pesawaran, and Maritim Panjang. Daily climatological data obtained from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) were used as the basis for model training. Three primary algorithms were tested Random Forest, XGBoost, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) selected for their capability to handle complex and temporal data. The research methodology included data preprocessing, model training, cross-validation, and predictive performance evaluation using metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and the coefficient of determination (R²). Preliminary results show that LSTM excels in time series prediction, while XGBoost offers a good balance between speed and accuracy. These findings indicate that machine learning-based approaches have strong potential as decision-support tools for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning in Indonesia’s coastal regions.
Co-Authors Abidin Pasaribu Adeng Slamet Ahmad Zarkasih Nur Amriansyah Alfia Ani Musfiroh Apit Fathurohman Ayu Permatasari Biqom Helda Zia Depi Oktasari Depi Oktasari Dian Aulia Didi Suhendi Dwi Suseno Wati Endah Wahyu Erna Retna Safitri ERYANSYAH, ERYANSYAH Evelina Astra Patriot Febri Fitri Yanti Fikri Yandi Kurniawan Fitri Mardotilah Fuad Abd. Rachman Hamdi Akhsan Hartono Hartono Helen Helen Heru Kuswanto Huriyatul Firdausi Ida Sriyanti Iin Seprina Indri Pratiwi Ismet Izzah Tiari Jumadi Jumadi Kalsum, Umi Karwandi Karwandi Ketang Wiyono Ketang Wiyono Kristylia Sury KURNIA PUTRI LAHMITA L.R. Retno Susanti Leni Marlina Makmum Raharjo Margaretha Dinar Sitinjak May Sari May Sari Meli Asma Desti Melly Ariska Muhammad Muslim Murniati . Nyayu Khodijah Rahmi Susanti Regita Elsa Putri Riska Nabilah Rita Inderawati Santi Oktarina Saparini Saparini Scristia, Scristia Sri Wulandari Sudirman, Sudirman Syuhendri, Syuhendri Taufiq Taufiq Umi Kalsum Widiya Nopita Yanti Yuliarti Yenita Yenita Yenny Anwar Zera Nadiah Ferty Zulkardi Zulkardi