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Denny Nurdiansyah
Statistics Study Program, Faculty Of Science And Technology, Universitas Nadlatul Ulama Sunan Giri, Indonesia
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Comparison of Decomposition and Triple Exponential Smoothing Methods to Improve Rice Production Forecasting in East Java Province Lathifah, Nur Aisyatul; Nurdiansyah, Denny; Kartini, Alif Yuanita
Vygotsky: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025): Vygotsky: Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika dan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Islam Lamongan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30736/voj.v7i1.1119

Abstract

This study forecasts rice production in East Java using Triple Exponential Smoothing (Holt-Winters) and Decomposition. Data includes rice production in dry milled grain (GKG) from January 2018 until December 2023, sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of East Java. The analysis identifies the Holt-Winters Multiplicative model as the most effective, with the lowest error values: Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.1452, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of 0.1078, and Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.0286 during training, and MAPE of 0.1974, MAD of 0.1909, and MSE of 0.0858 during testing. The Holt-Winters Multiplicative model is recommended for future rice production predictions, providing reliable method for accurate forecasting, and aiding in future rice demand planning in East Java.
Co-Authors Agus Sulistiawan Alfiansyah, Achmad Thoriq Habib Anisa, Firda Anna Apriana Hidayanti Aziz, Su’udin Dinda Ayu Aprilia Elsa Maulida Safitri Emilia Fatmawati Erna Hayati, Erna Fadhilatun Ni’mah Fasroin, Siti Habibah Zulfana Lailiyah Habibullah, M. Noor Hidayatul Fitriyah Ika Purnamasari Julianto, Kurnia Amirza Kartini, Alif Yuanita Khiorul Wafa Khoirina, Jami’atul Khoirul Wafa Koniva, Deskia Dwi Nur Kusniar, Niken Nadif Ulfiya Labiba Kusna, Siti Lathifah, Nur Aisyatul Levia, Zachdyna Aurelya Lilis Dwi Agustin M. Ridlwan Hambali Miftakhul Khasanah Mochamad Nizar Palefi Ma’ady Moh. Miftahul Choiri Muhammad Jauharul Fawaiq Muhammad Maftuchin Muhammad Shofiyudin Mula Agung Barata Mutiani, Tia Nabila, Anti Nailil Muna Nasirudin, M. Nita Cahyani Novitasari, Diah Ayu Novitasari, Diah Ayu Nurfirdaus, Retno Eka Oktafiya, Dewi Putri Nur Patmawati, Pebriana Putri Pebriani, Putri Vatria Pradana, Muhammad Yulvi Aditya Putri Utami, Putri Rahayu, Yuliana Fuji Rahman, Rifqi Maulana Ridho, Sari Lestari Zainal Ririn Fauziyah Rista, Tia Fadila Rohmawati, Siti Rokhim, Auliyaur Romadona, Sefia Rara Saidah, Saniyatus Siti Marfuah, Siti Sukmawaty, Yuana Suwandi, Edi Syarif Husen Teguh Pribadi Ubaidillah, Muhammad Zahid Utomo, Muchammad Chandra Cahyo Wicaksono, Ahmad Agus Wijayanti, Lulud Yuliana, Ummi Agustin Zainul Abidin