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All Journal Media Statistika Jurnal Pendidikan dan Pembelajaran Khatulistiwa (JPPK) Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Zeta - Math Journal QARDHUL HASAN: MEDIA PENGABDIAN KEPADA MASYARAKAT Variance : Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Jurnal Varian Babul Ilmi Jurnal Ilmiah Multi Science Kesehatan International Journal of Engineering, Science and Information Technology Indonesian Journal of Education Methods Development Dirgamaya: Jurnal Manajemen dan Sistem Informasi Jurnal Ilmu Pendidikan Sekolah Dasar Kajian Moral dan Kewarganegaraan Journal of Scientific Research, Education, and Technology Indonesian Research Journal on Education Madani: Multidisciplinary Scientific Journal Karimah Tauhid Indonesian Culture and Religion Issues Prosiding Dedikasi: Pengabdian Mahasiswa Kepada Masyarakat Jurnal Pengabdian Kader Bangsa JIPSD Progressus Humanitatis JIMEKA
Dita Amelia, Dita
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MODELING OF WORLD CRUDE OIL PRICE BASED ON PULSE FUNCTION INTERVENTION ANALYSIS APPROACH Aliffia, Netha; Sediono, Sediono; Suliyanto, Suliyanto; Mardianto, M. Fariz Fadillah; Amelia, Dita
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 16, No 2 (2023): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.16.2.136-147

Abstract

Crude oil has important role in global economy, including Indonesia with considerable dependence on crude oil energy consumption. The increase in crude oil prices can be triggered by several factors, one of which is geopolitical conflict that occurred due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. As the result, world crude oil prices rose above US$100 per barrel for the first time since 2014. Therefore, this study uses pulse function intervention analysis approach to evaluate the impact of certain events in predicting data over the next few periods. The pulse function is used because the intervention occurs at the moment t only. The data used starts from June 8, 2020 to September 19, 2022 on weekly basis with the proportion of training and testing data is 90:10. The best intervention model obtained is ARIMA (3,2,0) with b=0, s=1, r=2, and intervention point at T=91. The prediction results for the next 12 periods obtained MAPE value of 2.8982% and MSE of 10.2687. This study is expected to help reduce risks due to uncertainty in world crude oil prices and in line with the goals of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to ensure access to reliable, sustainable, and affordable energy.
Co-Authors Abidin, Qumadha Zaenal Aisyah, Arlisya Shafwan Aldawiyah, Najwa Khoir Aliffia, Netha Alvian Harisandy Amalia, Nadinta Kasih Andriani, Putu Eka Anggriawan, Muhammad Rizal Annissa Mawardini Apit Priatna Ardi Kurniawan Arif Maulana Yusuf Asfar Muniir, Asfar Astuti, Aprillia Awaludin, Dudi Az Zuhro, Muhammad Rosyid Ridho Azzahra, Shakilla Dahlan Abdullah Darmawan, Kezia Eunike Dewanty, Sanda Insania Dewi, Berlianti Alisa Dewi, Deshinta Arrova Dimas Pratomo Dwitya, Shabrina Nareswari Efriyanti, Liza Elly Ana Erik Rosadi Evelyn, Jennifer Faizah, Atikah Fatyra, Adisa Fauzi, Doni Muhammad Fauziah, Nathania Febriani, Regina Firmanda, Ahmad Wahyu Fitria Eka Wulandari Fitriyani, Mubadi’ul Gilang A, Muhammad Risky Hamid, Fatih Farhan Handayani, Nida Nabilah Hari Antoni Musril Harsanti, Dwika Maya Idrus Syahzaqi Indrasta, Irma Ayu Inneztiana, Alya Rahma Ismunandar Kalista, Yovita Karin Kamil, M. Aqil Zaidan Khairunnisa, Nur Shabrina Kurnia, Rizky Dwi Kusjono, Gatot Larasati, Berliani Linda Linda M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto Marisa Rifada Mediani, Andini Putri Meylani, Putri Muhammad Aditya, Muhammad Mulyanti, Eneng Mustika Kartika Sari Nafaisah, Lulu Nitasari, Alfi Nur Nopitasari, Teni Nugraha, Galuh Cahya Nur Chamidah Nusari, Nyoman Hepi Parmin, Selamat Prasetyo, Juan Krisfigo Pratiwi, Firda Aulia Pratiwi, Rosidun Nindyo Putra, Mochamad Rasyid Aditya Putri, Arina Putri, Farah Fauziah Putri, Riski Dwi Putrie, Andi Vania Ghalliyah Rahma, Alma Khalisa Rahmah , Ade Ramadani, Suci Ramadhanty, Devira Thania Raya, Kezya Bato Rika Wulandari Rusi Rusmiati Aliyyah S, Serli Wulan Salsabila, Fatiha Nadia salsabila, safira Sa’idah, Andini Sediono, Sediono Septia Sari, Ni Wayan Widya Septiana, Deni Septiandini, Niswah Septorini, Yasmine Regita Sesrita, Afridha Setiawan, M. Syah Denny Setyaningrum, Jeny Praesti Shabira , Syahla Malika Shabira, Syahla Malika Shafira Renianti, Fayza Soewignjo, Steven Sri Utami, Irma Inesia Suliyanto Suliyanto Suliyanto Supriadi Supriadi Suyono, Billy Christandy Syahfitri, Nabila Syahputra, Bimo Okta Tantry Widiyanarti, Tantry Taufiqur Rahman Teguh Prasetyo Toha Saifudin Ulia, Ulia Uljanah, Lulu Urbach, Verina Wanda, Neri Mei Widiyanti, Julia Widyangga, Pressylia Aluisina Putri Wijayawati, Evi Yuliani, Salma Zah, Alfian Iqbal Zahratul Fitri, Zahratul Zuleika, Talitha