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Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (Arima) dalam Memprediksi Jumlah Penumpang Kereta Api Kota Binjai Queenty Dhea Haura Br Sitepu; Sutarman Sutarman; Machrani Adi Putri Siregar
Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika Vol. 2 No. 2 (2024): April : Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Pendidikan Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61132/arjuna.v2i2.621

Abstract

The importance of land transportation services such as PT. Indonesian Railways are increasing among the public lately, especially in Binjai City. Therefore, this study aims to try to model and forecast the number of passengers of PT. Indonesian Railways in the region. In this study, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used which has proven effective. For research in Binjai City, the ARIMA(1,1,1) model showed good results. The data used in this study includes the number of passengers of PT. Binjai City Railway from January 2022 to December 2022. The forecasting accuracy rate was evaluated using MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), which reached a value of 4.437%. This figure shows that forecasting has an error rate of less than 10%, so it can be categorized as excellent forecasting. The results of this study provide valuable insights for PT. Binjai City Railway to plan resources and optimize their passenger services. However, further research can still be done to improve forecasting methods and expand the reach of research to other regions.
Pengaruh Penggunaan Aplikasi Desmos Graphing Calculator Terhadap Kemampuan Pemahaman Konsep Matematis Siswa Durriah Hasibuan; Asrul Asrul; Machrani Adi Putri Siregar
Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika Vol. 2 No. 5 (2024): Oktober : Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Pendidikan Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61132/arjuna.v2i5.1177

Abstract

The research that has been conducted is entitled "The Effect of the Use of Desmos Graphing Calculator Application on Students' Ability to Understand Mathematical Concepts" which is based on the background that students' ability to understand mathematical concepts is obtained information that it is not optimal so that students do not master the material well. The methodology of this study uses a quantitative type of quasi-experimental research with a posttest test in two classes. The population of this study is all class X students at PAB 1 Medan Estate Private High School with a total of 48 people. Which is divided into X Mia1 and X Mia II. Data sampling technique with saturated samples. Data analysis was carried out with a posttsest test in both classes. Based on the results of the research, it can be concluded that "The Effect of the Use of the Desmos Graphing Calculator Application on the Ability to Understand Mathematical Concepts of Students, the results of data analysis show that the ability to understand mathematical concepts in learning using the Desmos Graphing Calculator media is higher than the ability to understand mathematical concepts in learning without using the Desmos Graphing Calculator media". on the ability to understand mathematical concepts.
FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF DELI RIVER FLOOD DISTRIBUTION PLAN USING THE GUMBEL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION METHOD Agustin, Uni; Siregar, Machrani Adi Putri
Sinkron : jurnal dan penelitian teknik informatika Vol. 7 No. 3 (2023): Article Research Volume 7 Issue 3, July 2023
Publisher : Politeknik Ganesha Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33395/sinkron.v8i3.12543

Abstract

The Deli river basin is one of the rivers in North Sumatra Province which is in Medan City with an area of ​​394.88 km2 and a length of 166.01 km. Medan Maimun District which has an area of ​​2.98 km2 and a population density of 16,520 people/km2. Medan Mimun sub-district is one of the flood-prone areas which is drained by the Deli River. The cause of the flooding that occurred in Medan Maimun District was high rainfall so that the river flow rate increased and drainage was poor. So that the problem of flooding in the Deli river watershed, Medan Maimun sub-district, can hamper community activities, these floods can also harm and endanger the community. The flood discharge plan for each repeat period where the variable used is the maximum daily rainfall for 10 years From 2013-2022 which is sourced from the BMKG Deli Serdang. In this study using frequency analysis and then proceed with the Gumbel Probability Distribution method, Normal Distribution Log Person Type III. The result of this study with hydrological data and distribution test, the suitable method for analyzing the planned flood discharge in the Deli River is Log Person Type III that it can be flood discharge for a 2 year retention period is 12.7684672 m3/sec, 5 year return period is 12.56275855 m3/sec, 10 year return period is 15.91400029 m3/sec, 25 year return period is 16.87871678 m3/sec, 50 year return period is 17.43836748 m3/sec and a 100 year return period is 17.89619614 m3/sec. Keywords: Rainfall, Deli River, Planned Flood Discharge
Determining The Optimal Number of K-Means Clusters Using The Calinski Harabasz Index and Krzanowski and Lai Index Methods for Groupsing Flood Prone Areas In North Sumatra Syahputri, Ziana; Sutarman; Machrani Adi Putri Siregar
Sinkron : jurnal dan penelitian teknik informatika Vol. 8 No. 1 (2024): Articles Research Volume 8 Issue 1, January 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Ganesha Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33395/sinkron.v9i1.13246

Abstract

The k-means algorithm is a partitional clustering method. K-Means has several advantages, including being easy to implement, having a high level of convergence and producing denser clusters. Meanwhile, the drawback is that it is difficult to determine the optimal number of clusters. The K-Means method will be used to solve problems in areas prone to flood disasters in North Sumatra. This research aims to find the optimal number of clusters with the Calinski Harabasz Index and Krzanowski And Lai Index based on the Cluster Tightness Measure (CTM) value. There are eleven variables used in this research. Based on the research results, it was concluded that the CTM CH result of 0.376 was smaller than the CTM KL of 0.7843. So it can be said that determining the optimal number of clusters using CH with k = 6 is better than KL with k = 2.
Penerapan Metode ADL Pengaruh Harga BBM dan Jumlah Uang Beredar terhadap Inflasi di Kota Medan Sarah, Henny May; Siregar, Machrani Adi Putri; Widyasari, Rina
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024): Sustainable Development Goal in Mathematics and Mathematics Education
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v7i1.3412

Abstract

Inflation is a general and continuous tendency to increase the price of goods. Factors causing inflation include increases in fuel prices and money supply. The general impact of inflation is a decrease in domestic investment, an increase in interest rates, encouraging investment through speculation, failure to develop, economic instability, a balance of payments deficit, and lowering the standard of living and welfare of the community.The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of fuel prices and the amount of money in circulation on inflation in the city of Medan. The model used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) Model. If the variables in the ADL model, both the dependent variable and the independent variable have a unit root, usually performed stasionary test. The ADL model as-sumes stationary data even if the dependent and independent variables are nei-ther stationary or cointegrated. The test results indicate that there is no cointe-gration between the variables, and the model produced indicates that the varia-bles affecting the price of fuel and the availability of money have a considerable impact on inflation, with a coefficient of determination of 71,4% and a MAPE value of 15,64%, making it suitable for making predictions.
Pendekatan Regresi Spline Multivariabel untuk Pemodelan Indeks Ketahanan Pangan Provinsi Sumatera Utara Zulaika, Zulaika; Cipta, Hendra; Siregar , Machrani Adi Putri
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024): Sustainable Development Goal in Mathematics and Mathematics Education
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v7i2.3666

Abstract

Food security is a condition where food is fulfilled for a household which is reflected in the availability of sufficient food both in terms of quantity and quality, safe, and equitable and affordable. In Government Regulation No. 38 of 2007 Food security has become a basic prerequisite that must be owned by autonomous regions where food security is a mandatory matter for the central, provincial, and district / city governments. To measure the food security of a region, the Government makes an indicator in looking at the achievement of food security of a region. This indicator is the Food Security Index. For this reason, it is necessary to conduct an analysis to model factors related to food security through the Food Security Index to see how much these factors contribute to the ups and downs of the Food Security Index. One statistical method that can explain the relationship between predictor variables and response variables is spline nonparametric regression analysis. Spline is an approach towards matching data while taking into account the smoothness of curves. Splines have the advantage of overcoming data patterns that show sharp rises / downs with the help of knot points, and the resulting curve is relatively smooth. The research objective of this study was to determine the modeling of the Food Security Index in North Sumatra using the Multivariable Spline Regression Method. Based on the analysis that has been done, a spline regression model for the Food Security Index in North Sumatra was obtained at three knot points with a minimum GCV value of 27.39 and R^2 is 92.76%.
Uji Metode Naive Bayes Classifier dalam Pembagian Bantuan Langsung Tunai oleh Program Keluarga Harapan Panjaitan, Syarifah Utari; Siregar, Machrani Adi Putri; Harleni, Silvia
Proximal: Jurnal Penelitian Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024): Menjembatani Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika menuju Pemanfaatan Berkelanju
Publisher : Universitas Cokroaminoto Palopo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30605/proximal.v7i2.3688

Abstract

Direct Cash Assistance (DCA) can be understood as giving a sum of money (cash) to the poor through a village fund budget issued by the government. The DCA Program for Target Households (PTH) in its implementation must directly touch and provide direct benefits to the poor (which are categorized as PTH), encourage shared social responsibility and be able to foster public trust in the government in really paying attention to PTH. The Naive Bayes classifier is a classification method that can be used in the distribution of Direct Cash Assistance (DCA) by the Family Hope Program (FHP). The data used in this study were obtained from the East Sei Kepayang sub-district and the Asahan District Social Service. The data taken is only data obtained in 2022 and in branches sourced from the village fund budget issued by the government. The results showed that based on predetermined test data, the probability of "yes" assistance was 0.0066650391 while the probability of "no" assistance was 0, so that the results of the classification "yes" for this data were obtained.
THE EFFECT OF DISPOSITION ON STUDENT MATHEMATICS LEARNING ACHIEVEMENT IN MEDAN STATE 28 JUNIOR HIGH SCHOOL Siregar, Machrani Adi Putri; Lisma, Eryanti
Journal of Community Research and Service Vol 3, No 1: January 2019
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24114/jcrs.v3i1.14402

Abstract

This study titled as The Effect of Disposition on Student Mathematics Learning Achievement in Medan State 28 Junior High School. In this study, disposition is an independent variable and achievement in mathematics learning is a dependent variable. Mathematical disposition is a change of student’s tendency in assuming and behaving toward mathematics, also their act when learning mathematics. For example, when students can solve non-routine problems, their behavior and assumption of mathematics as a student become more positive. The more mathematical concepts understood, the more students convinced that mathematics can be mastered. Based on theory, there are many factors that influence student's achievement in mathematics learning. In this study, researcher only took disposition factor. This research took place at Medan State 28 Junior High School which located at Karya Bersama St. No. 17 Medan Johor. The method of this study is a quantitative method with all of VIII class students which amount to 273 students and divided into 8 (eight) study groups. The data obtained by giving a questionnaire consisting of 19 statements. The data then analyzed by using simple linear regression analysis. The data analysis was performed by using SPSS 21 software for Windows. From the results of this study, it can be concluded that there is an effect of disposition on students' achievement in mathematics learning or in other words, students' achievements in mathematics learning are influenced by the disposition attitudes that students have in mathematics learning. The influence occurs in the disposition of achievement in mathematics learning is positive, that is equal to 6.6%.Keywords: Disposition, Mathematics Learning Achievement.
Kajian Deskriptif Pendekatan Konstruktivisme Melalui Penerapan Model Pembelajaran Kooperatif Terhadap Pemahaman Konsep Matematis Siswa Hidayah Nasution, Hijrah; Putri Siregar, Machrani Adi; Siregar, Yulia Anita; Hasratuddin, Hasratuddin; Sinaga, Bornok
LOKAKARYA Vol 3, No 2 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30821/lokakarya.v3i2.4184

Abstract

Pendekatan konstruktivisme dalam pembelajaran matematika mendorong siswa untuk mengaitkan konsep-konsep baru dengan pengetahuan yang sudah mereka miliki. Sementara itu, melalui model kooperatif, siswa dapat berdiskusi, berbagi ide, dan saling mengoreksi pemahaman mereka. Beberapa manfaat dari penerapan model pembelajaran kooperatif dalam pembelajaran matematika meliputi peningkatan pemahaman konsep matematis. Siswa lebih mudah memahami konsep abstrak matematika ketika mereka bisa mendiskusikannya dan melihat perspektif teman-teman mereka. Meningkatkan keterlibatan siswa, yakni kerjasama dalam kelompok dapat memotivasi siswa untuk lebih terlibat aktif dalam proses belajar. Membantu siswa yang lebih lambat di dalam kelompok, dimana siswa yang kesulitan bisa mendapatkan bantuan dari teman-teman mereka, sehingga pemahaman konsep yang mereka dapatkan lebih meningkat. Dengan pendekatan konstruktivisme melalui penerapan model pembelajaran kooperatif pada materi Pengumpulan dan Penyajian Data kepada siswa Kelas IV SD Negeri 064014 Tahun Ajaran 2024/2025 terbukti dapat menanamkan pemahaman konsep matematis siswa dengan baik.
Improving mathematical literacy: How does PBL affect the students’ performance? Andini, Fadhila; Siregar, Machrani Adi Putri
Bulletin of Applied Mathematics and Mathematics Education Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/bamme.v4i1.10482

Abstract

This research is motivated by the many problems that often arise during classroom learning, especially mathematics. The aim of this research is to find out how students' abilities and problems are described in learning mathematics regarding relationships and functions taught using problem-based learning models and conventional learning models. With a post-test-only control group design, this research is a quasi-experimental research. The population in this study were all class VIII students at Bahagia Medan Private Middle School. Cluster random sampling was used to select 36 participants from each of two classes (control class and experimental class). This research instrument is a test with five questions. Based on the results of data analysis, the sig value was obtained. (2-tailed) of 0.000 < 0.05. Therefore, it can be concluded that Problem Based Learning and conventional learning produce significantly different levels of mathematical literacy. The practical implication of this research is that educational practitioners, especially mathematics teachers at the junior high school level, can utilize these findings to improve their teaching. PBL can be used as a basis for designing more innovative and student-centered learning units, which can help students develop a deeper understanding of mathematical concepts and improve their ability to solve problems. Adequate support and training for teachers in implementing PBL is also important to ensure its successful implementation in the classroom.