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Journal : Media Statistika

FUZZY VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION FOR FORECASTING FARMER EXCHANGE RATE IN CENTRAL JAVA PROVINCE Nurhayadi Nurhayadi
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 15, No 1 (2022): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.15.1.94-103

Abstract

Computer technology has developed to a very advanced measure. Calculations using complex formulas are no longer an obstacle for industry and researchers. Along with advances in computing technology, the development of fuzzy system models is also experiencing rapid progress. This paper proposes a fuzzy model combined with Vector Autoregression. The fuzzy membership function is built by selecting the median of each set to be the center of the fuzzy set. The function chosen as the membership function is Gaussian. The fuzzy Vector Autoregression model obtained was applied to the Farmer's Exchange Rate in Central Java Province. The accuracy of the model is measured based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error. The results of model trials on FER Central Java in 2014-2020, show a pretty good forecast, namely forecasting with MAPE around 5%, and not exceeding 10%.
Co-Authors ., Author Abd Hamid Abdul Hamid Aisun, Putri Alfriyanti, Niluh Anggraini Anggraini Anna Pertiwi Annisa, Marsiana Dwi Arni Arni Atik Aryani Azmi, Lut Dika Daru Baharuddin Paloloang Baharuddin Paloloang Baihaqi, Muhammad Rifqi Bakri M Candith, Juliannes Dasa Ismaimuza Dewi Ulfiana Dini Supriati Dunggio, Fadlia H. Dwiyanti, Risna Evie Awuy Evie Awuy Fajriani Fajriani Gandung Sugita Gandung Sugita Gayatri, Refma Hasdin Hasdin Heni Novianti Herawati, Vitri Dyah I Nyoman Murdiana I Nyoman Murdiana I Nyoman Murdiana Ibni Hadjar Imran Imran Indriyati Indriyati Karniman, Tegoeh S. Kasmiati Lario, Yovita Cicilia Lupna, Lupna M Nur M., Bakri Maryam Maryam Maryam Meri Safitri M. Rasul Muh Hasbi Muh. Rizal Muh. Rizal Muhamad Wali Kusumajoyo Krisno MUSTAMIN IDRIS mutiara mutiara Nggau, Margaretta Lisni Alfionita Niluh alfriyanti Novianti, Heni Nur Inayah Nur Inayah Nur Islamiah, Nur Nur Islamiyah Nurfadila Nurfadila, Nurfadila Nurhaida Nurmala Nurmala Nurul Hikmah Nurwahyuni Biringkanae Pathuddin Pembeu, Mega Cendrakasih Pratama, Louris Sam Rahim, Nur Mei Sakin Rahmat Rahmat Hidayat Rahmawati, Rahmawati Resky Noviana Sumedi Riska Riski Riskiyana, Indri Risna Risna, Risna Rita Lefrida Rizal, Muh Sancini, Ni Kadek Devi Sanita, Sanita Shofia Nurun Alanur S Sri Wahyuni Sri Wahyuni Sudarman Bennu Sukayasa Sukmawati Sukmawati Sutji Rochaminah Tamimi, Tamimi Wahyu R, Ginulur Wardaningtyas, Aprilia Fifi Welli Meinarni Welli Meinarni Widiastuti, Ira Widiyono, Widiyono Widya Meistika Tinangon Zulvita Lestari Abdullah