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All Journal Jurnal Pendidikan Teknologi dan Kejuruan Jurnal Nasional Pendidikan Teknik Informatika (JANAPATI) Journal of Computer Science and Informatics Engineering (J-Cosine) EDUMATIC: Jurnal Pendidikan Informatika Jurnal Teknologi Informasi, Komputer, dan Aplikasinya (JTIKA ) Journal of Computer Networks, Architecture and High Performance Computing Jurnal Teknik Informatika (JUTIF) Jurnal Begawe Teknologi Informasi Jurnal Multidisiplin Sahombu Journal of Social Work and Empowerment
Murpratiwi, Santi Ika
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Journal : EDUMATIC: Jurnal Pendidikan Informatika

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Sistem Peramalan Kelahiran, Kematian dan Kemiskinan berbasis Website dengan Metode Arima Munirah, Zahrahtun; Widiartha, Ida Bagus Ketut; Murpratiwi, Santi Ika
Jurnal Pendidikan Informatika (EDUMATIC) Vol 9 No 1 (2025): Edumatic: Jurnal Pendidikan Informatika
Publisher : Universitas Hamzanwadi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29408/edumatic.v9i1.28423

Abstract

Population data management in Wawonduru Village is currently not running optimally due to a lack of supporting technology, where data management is still done manually by visiting house to house. With the increasing population every year, a system is needed that can manage data efficiently to monitor population fluctuations. This research aims to develop a web-based birth, death and poverty forecasting system to predict population trends and plan appropriate policies in the future in Wawonduru Village. The system was developed using the Personal Extreme Programming (PXP) model and forecasting using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. ARIMA was chosen because it is able to accurately predict data with changing patterns and seasonality based on historical patterns. The results show that the developed system not only runs well without errors but also functions as an integrated birth, death and poverty forecasting system. Forecasting using ARIMA resulted in MAPE values of 38.16% for births, 40.67% for deaths, and 44.4% for poverty. It is within the range between 20-50%, so it is feasible to use. Blackbox testing also states that the system has run well and meets user needs both in terms of convenience. So that this system can be used by the Wawonduru Village command to do forecasting to assist in forecasting.
Co-Authors Abdul Manan Adawiyah, Baiq Safitri Rabiah Afwani, Royana Agitha, Nadiyasari Agus Gunawan Al Qadri, Ramadhani Alamsyah, Noor Albar, Moh Ali Albar, Moh. Ali Anjarwani, Sri Endang Aranta, Arik Ario Yudo Husodo, Ario Yudo Aristana, Made Dona Wahyu Bimantari, Joselina Rizki Budi Irmawati Cahyani, Armita Dwi Dwi Ratnasari Fitri Bimantoro Heri Wijayanto Huwae, Raphael Bianco I B K Widiartha I Gede Pasek Suta Wijaya I Gusti Agung Indrawan I Nyoman Widhi Adnyana I Wayan Agus Arimbawa, I Wayan Agus I Wayan Dharma Suryawan Irawati, Lulu Iswani, Fahrona Jatmika, Andy Hidayat Jatmiko, Andy Hidayat Jayusman, Dirga Kansha, Lyudza Aprilia Kompiang Martina Dinata Putri Kurrotaa'yun, Baiq Dwi Zulianti Luh Putu Rara Ayu Ratnaningrum Luqyana, Salsabila Made Sudarma Mantika, Salsabilla Meinarni, Ni Putu Suci Mulyawan, I Putu Arya Munirah, Zahrahtun Ni Kadek Ariasih, Ni Kadek Ni Made Mila Rosa Desmayani, Ni Made Mila Rosa Ni Putu Widantari Suandana Nurjamil, As'ad Muzakki Paramita, Delia Pramawati, I.D.A Tantri Putra, Putu Satria Udyana Raihan, Muhammad Dzulhi Rakhman, Mustafa Zohri Ramlah Ramlah Rassy, Regania Pasca Rizki, Muhammad Ainur Rosika, Herliana Rukmi Sari Hartati Sari, Gita Mailand Sari, Ni Wayan Yunita Suhada, Destia Trieanto, Agil Ulya, Uswatul Wardiani, Nazmi Zulqarami, Hilman