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Forecasting The Number of Traffic Accidents in Purbalingga Regency on 2023 Using Time Series Model Trimono; Amri Muhaimin; Nabilah Selayanti
Nusantara Science and Technology Proceedings 8th International Seminar of Research Month 2023
Publisher : Future Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11594/nstp.2024.4168

Abstract

Accident data from Satlantas Purbalingga Regency shows that in 2022 there is an increase in the number of traffic accidents in the Purbalingga Regency. In the future, the impact of accidents is predicted to be bigger so it is necessary to forecasting. Forecasting is one of the most important elements in decision making, because effective or not a decision generally depends on several factors that can not be seen at the time the decision was taken. In this time study the possible time series model is ARMA (2,2), ARMA (2,1), ARMA (1,2), ARMA (1,1), AR (2), AR (1), MA (2), MA (1). However, after testing, the model used is ARMA (1,1). This model is used because it meets all the assumption requirements that are parameter significant, residual independent test, residual normality test, and the smallest Mean Square Error value. According to data forecasting results the highest number of crashes existed in January of 97 accidents and the lowest in December amounted to 93 accidents, So the necessary action from the relevant agencies to cope with the increasing number of traffic accidents in the Purbalingga Regency.
Stock Price Modeling with Geometric Brownian Motion and Value with Risk PT Ciputra Development TBK Amri Muhaimin; Trimono Trimono
Nusantara Science and Technology Proceedings 7st International Seminar of Research Month 2022
Publisher : Future Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11594/nstp.2023.3329

Abstract

Financial sector investment is an activity that attracts a lot of public interest. One of them is investing funds in purchasing the company’s shares. Profit received from stock investment activity can be seen from the value of stock returns. While, if the previous stock returns to Normal distribution, the future stock price can be predicted by Geometric Brownian Motion Method. Based on the stock price prediction, can also be measured an estimated value of the investment risk. The result of data processing shows that the stock price prediction of PT. Ciputra Development Tbk period December 1, 2016, until January 31, 2017, has very good accuracy, based on the value of MAPE 1.98191%. Further, the Value Risk Method of Monte Carlo Simulation with ? = 5% significance level was used to measure the share investment risk of PT.Ciputra Development Tbk. Thus, this method is only useful if it can be used to predict accurately. Therefore, backtesting is needed. Based on the processing obtained data, backtesting generates the value of violation ratio at 0, it means that at significance level ? = 5%, the Value at Risk Method of Monte Carlo Simulation can be used at all levels of probability violation.
Application of Google Data Studio for Data Visualization at SMK Tunas Bangsa Malang Trimono; Andreas Nugroho Sihananto; Muhammad Muharrom Al Haromainy; Edi Sugiyanto; Farkhan
Nusantara Science and Technology Proceedings 7st International Seminar of Research Month 2022
Publisher : Future Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11594/nstp.2023.33107

Abstract

The Department of Office Automation and Governance (OTKP) is one of the Vocational High School’s majors in Indonesia that focuses on office operations and information processing. One of the popular skill in information processing lately is data processing and visualization. In response of this trend, we propose a Google Data Studio training for Tunas Bangsa Vocational High School’s students from OTKP Majors. Google Data Studio is a free data analysis tool from Google. With this tool, users can not only display data with attractive and easy-to-understand visuals but also can process data from various sources on one worksheet. This service is mostly free, not limited to Google services such as Google Sheets but can be linked to other platforms, such as websites, applications or third party services. By the end of the training all participants have been able to use Google Data Studio for data visualization needed for offices in general.
COMPARISON OF DECISION TREE AND RANDOM FOREST METHODS IN THE CLASSIFICATION OF DIABETES MELLITUS Maulidiyyah, Nova Auliyatul; Trimono, Trimono; Damaliana, Aviolla Terza; Prasetya, Dwi Arman
JIKO (Jurnal Informatika dan Komputer) Vol 7, No 2 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Khairun

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33387/jiko.v7i2.8316

Abstract

Diabetes mellitus is a deadly disease caused by the failure of the pancreas to produce enough insulin. Indonesia ranks fifth in the world with the number of people with diabetes in 2021 at around 19.47 million, and this number continues to increase. One of the main challenges in diabetes management is to make the right classification between type 1 and type 2 diabetes, as misdiagnosis can result in inappropriate treatment and worsen the patient's condition. This study uses a machine learning approach to compare Decision Tree and Random Forest methods in classifying type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus. The goal is to identify the most effective model in predicting the type of diabetes based on medical record data. The comparison was done using k-fold cross validation and confusion matrix. The results showed that Random Forest provided an average accuracy of 94%, while Decision Tree reached 93% during cross validation testing. Although both models were able to perform well in classification, Random Forest showed a more stable performance and a slight edge in accuracy over Decision Tree. Evaluation with the confusion matrix showed that the Decision Tree model achieved 93% accuracy compared to Random Forest's 91%. In addition, the Decision Tree model also had a lower number of prediction errors, 7, compared to 9 for Random Forest. The most influential variables in classification also differed between the two models, showing the unique advantages and characteristics of each approach.
ANALYSIS OF CLUSTERING METHODS ON THE CAUSAL FACTORS OF DIABETES MELLITUS WITH FUZZY C MEANS METHOD Adiwidyatma, Afdhal Reshanda; Mas Diyasa, I Gede Susrama; Trimono, Trimono
Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Vol. 5 No. 2 (2024): Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistik
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/lb.v5i2.611

Abstract

This study focuses on the effectiveness of clustering algorithms, namely Fuzzy C-Means by using k-Means algorithm as a supporting method, in the factors that cause Diabetes Mellitus. Diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease characterized by high levels of sugar (glucose) in the blood. Indonesia ranks 5th with the highest diabetes Mellitus patients in the world. This study aims to understand the pattern of factors causing Diabetes Mellitus and test the effectiveness of the clustering algorithm used. The data analysis methods include data collection, data pre-processing, distribution of cluster numbers, algorithm implementation, model adjustment, model training, model evaluation, and analysis of results. The results showed that the Fuzzy C-Means algorithm gets a coefficient of Fuzzynes score of 0.23 with a validation score of 0.40, while for supporting methods used K-Means algorithm gets a validation score of 0.32. This result shows that Fuzzy C-Means algorithm is superior in clastering the factors that cause Diabetes mellitus. The results of what variables have the most effect on cluster values 0 and 1. Where cluster 0 is a cluster that shows which variables are more at risk of diabetes, while cluster 1 is a cluster whose value shows what variables are far from the risk of causing diabetes mellitus. Then based on the results of the cluster that has been done, random blood sugar variables become the most influential variable on the risk of developing diabetes mellitus, followed by blood sugar variables 2 hours PP, and fasting blood sugar
ANALISIS PENGARUH FAKTOR EKONOMI TERHADAP KESEJAHTERAAN MASYARAKAT: PENDEKATAN HOLISTIK PADA VARIABEL SOSIAL DAN EKONOMI Sabela, Sefilah Naurah; Valentina, Tiara; Trimono, Trimono
Kohesi: Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi Vol. 6 No. 6 (2025): Kohesi: Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi
Publisher : CV SWA Anugerah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.3785/kohesi.v6i6.10025

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh faktor ekonomi terhadap kesejahteraan masyarakat menggunakan pendekatan holistik. Latar belakang penelitian ini adalah kesenjangan dalam pemahaman tentang hubungan antara variabel ekonomi, seperti pendapatan per kapita, distribusi pendapatan, dan stabilitas ekonomi makro, terhadap kesejahteraan. Metode penelitian ini melibatkan analisis data berdasarkan teori ekonomi kesejahteraan dan teori kemampuan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa distribusi pendapatan yang lebih merata dan stabilitas ekonomi secara signifikan meningkatkan kualitas hidup masyarakat. Selain itu, integrasi variabel sosial seperti akses pendidikan dan kesehatan dengan kebijakan ekonomi terbukti efektif dalam mengoptimalkan kesejahteraan masyarakat. Temuan ini menawarkan pendekatan baru yang menekankan pentingnya sinergi antara variabel ekonomi dan sosial dalam perencanaan strategi pembangunan berkelanjutan. This study aims to analyze the influence of economic factors on societal welfare using a holistic approach. The research highlights gaps in understanding the relationship between economic variables, such as per capita income, income distribution, and macroeconomic stability, on welfare. The methodology involves data analysis using welfare economics and capability theory frameworks. Results indicate that equitable income distribution and macroeconomic stability significantly enhance the quality of life. Additionally, integrating social variables, such as access to education and healthcare, with economic policies effectively optimizes societal welfare. These findings propose a novel approach that emphasizes the synergy between economic and social variables for sustainable development planning.
Pengaruh Leverage dan Likuiditas Terhadap Kualitas Laba pada Perusahaan Sektor Makanan dan Minuman yang Terdaftar di BEI periode 2020-2023 Insania, Nichlata; Widayawati, Eny; Ikaningtyas, Maharani; Trimono, Trimono
Jurnal Bisnis Indonesia Vol 16, No 2 (2024): Jurnal Bisnis Indonesia (Edisi Spesial)
Publisher : Program Studi Ilmu Administrasi Bisnis

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33005/jbi.v16i2.4907

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji pengaruh Leverage yang diproksikan oleh Debt to Equity (DER),dan Likuiditas yang diproksikan Current Ratio (CR) terhadap Kualitas laba pada Perusahaan Makanandan Minuman yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) periode 2020-2023. Populasi yang digunakandalam penelitian ini adalah 84 perusahaan dan sampelnya adalah 16 perusahaan dengan menggunakanTeknik Purposive Sampling. Analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini Analisis Regresi LinierBerganda menggunakan SPSS. Hasil penelitian ini menyatakan secara parsial Leverage yang di ukurdengan Debt to Equity (DER) dan Likuiditas yang di ukur Current Ratio (CR) berpengaruh signifikanterhadap Kualitas laba. Hasil penelitian secara simultan menunjukkan bahwa Leverage yang di ukur Debtto Equity (DER), dan Likuiditas yang di ukur Current Ratio (CR) berpengaruh terhadap Kualitas Labasedangkan kontribusi yang diberikan oleh Leverage yang di ukur Debt to Equity (DER), dan Likuiditasyang di ukur Current Ratio (CR) terhadap Kualitas Laba sebesar 97,6 %, sedangkan sisanya sebesar 2,4%di jelaskan oleh variabel lain yang tidak termasuk dalam penelitian iniKata kunci: Leverage, Likuiditas, Kualitas Laba
XportID: Website for Clustering Indonesian Export Commodities by Destination Continent using Gaussian Mixture Model Lisanthoni, Angela; Trimono, Trimono; Prasetya, Dwi Arman
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 9, No 1 (2025): January
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v9i1.27500

Abstract

Exports play a crucial role in driving economic growth and increasing foreign exchange reserves. However, Indonesia's export performance has not yet reached its optimal potential, as evidenced by an 11% decline in export value in 2023. The decrease is partly attributed to the limited range of export destination markets. Therefore, this study aims to analyze export trade patterns to identify the most ideal and potential market locations. The research will employ a quantitative approach, using secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics and the 2022 BACI dataset, focusing on the top 5 HS2 commodity types by highest export quantity. Clustering analysis is applied to group markets based on similar characteristics, identifying countries with high, medium, and low export potential for Indonesia’s export strategy. The research develops a website-based clustering system called XportID, utilizing a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) with the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm to determine optimal cluster parameters. GMM is preferred for its flexibility and probabilistic system, providing more accurate results compared to distance-based methods. There will be 3, 4, and 5 clusters formed and then the best cluster will be selected by comparing the silhouette score obtained. Results show that the Asian continent has 5 clusters with the best value of 0.7035, the American continent has 3 clusters with the best value of 0.8165, the African continent has 3 clusters with the best value of 0.8534, the Australian continent has 3 clusters with the best value of 0.8540, and the European continent has 4 clusters with the best value of 0.8654. Overall results, the clustering system is categorized as strong structure with average value of 0.8185. Countries with high export potential include Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, New Zealand, and Spain. Specifically in Africa, commodities related to HS2-15 show potential for growth.
EMPLOYEE VOLUNTARY ATTRITION PREDICTION AT PT.XYZ: ENSEMBLE MACHINE LEARNING APPROACH WITH SOFT VOTING CLASSIFIER Bey Lirna, Cagiva Chaedar; Trimono, Trimono; Damaliana, Aviolla Terza
Jurnal Teknik Informatika (Jutif) Vol. 5 No. 5 (2024): JUTIF Volume 5, Number 5, Oktober 2024
Publisher : Informatika, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52436/1.jutif.2024.5.5.2007

Abstract

This research addresses the complexity of employee attrition challenges at PT.XYZ. The main objective is to develop a predictive system for potential voluntary employee attrition by focusing on an in-depth analysis of the factors contributing to attrition at PT.XYZ. The research utilizes data containing information on the job history of PT.XYZ employees from 2018 to 2023. The method employed in the research is a soft voting ensemble classifier model, incorporating SVM, decision tree, and logistic regression, supported by relevant literature. Analysis and exploration of historical data of PT.XYZ employees are conducted to identify key factors influencing employees' decisions to leave the company. Careful data preprocessing is carried out to ensure dataset quality before applying it to the soft voting classifier model. The results of the soft voting classifier modeling used in this research achieve excellent accuracy in both training and testing datasets with respective accuracy percentages of 99% and 98%. Based on the final results of applying the soft voting classifier model, it is expected to provide deep insights and solutions to enhance employee retention at PT.XYZ.
Predicting Price and Risk ICBP Stocks Using GRU and VaR Ryan Dana, Alvin; Trimono, Trimono; Idhom, Mohammad
IJCCS (Indonesian Journal of Computing and Cybernetics Systems) Vol 19, No 1 (2025): January
Publisher : IndoCEISS in colaboration with Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22146/ijccs.101974

Abstract

The economy plays a vital role in maintaining a country’s stability and progress, where stock investments serve as a primary financial instrument to enhance societal welfare. In Indonesia, interest in stock investments, especially in the essential food sector, continues to grow due to its long-term profit potential. This study combines stock price prediction with risk analysis using a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model and Value at Risk (VaR) calculation based on historical simulation. The GRU model is selected for stock price prediction due to its ability to capture complex, fluctuating patterns and adapt to market changes, while VaR is used to measure potential maximum loss at a 95% confidence level. The findings indicate a potential loss of IDR 65.785, demonstrating that this approach can provide a risk estimate by combining future predicted prices with historical data. Thus, this approach offers guidance for investors in understanding potential profits and risks in stock assets. The integration of GRU-based predictions and historical simulation VaR is expected to support more informative and prudent investment decision-making, particularly in facing the dynamic and risky stock market conditions.
Co-Authors Abda Abda Abdullah Abdullah Adam, Cindi Ade Irma Agustian Adelia Adelia, Adelia Adiwidyatma, Afdhal Reshanda Afidria, Zulfa Febi Aliya Dasa Pramesthi Amanillah, Rahmatul Amri Muhaimin Andreas Nugroho Sihananto Ardiani, Ardia Eva Arif, Farah Yusnaida Arifta, Septia Dini Asfiani, Ilil Musyarof Aurelia, Cenditya Ayu Aviolla Terza Damaliana Aviolla Terza Damaliana Aviolla Terza Damaliana Awang, Wan Suryani Wan Azni Aisyah Azzahra, Adelia Ramadhina Bainar Bainar, Bainar Bey Lirna, Cagiva Chaedar Carissa, Savvy Prissy Amellia Damaliana, Aviolla Terza Desy Miftachul Ilmi Arifin Putri Dewi, Ni Luh Ayu Nariswari Di Asih I Maruddani Di Asih I Maruddani Di Asih I Maruddani Diash, Hakam Dzakwan Dinda Putri Arnindi Diyasa, I Gede Susrama Mas Dwi Arman Prasetya Dwi Arman Prasetya Dwi Arman Prasetya Edi Sugiyanto Fahrudin, Tresna Maulana Fairuz Luthfia Winoto Putri, Maretta Faizi, Dandi Nur Farkhan Febri Giantara Febriyanti, Alvi Yuana Febyanti, Iin Hadi, Surjo Hadiyan Pradipta, Alvino Hasan Hendri Prabowo Herlina Herlina Hervrizal, Hervrizal I Gede Susrama Mas Diyasa I Gede Susrama Mas Diyasa I Gusti Putu Asto Buditjahjanto Icha Rohmatul Jannah idhom, Mohammad Ikaningtyas, Maharani Ikaningtyas, Maharani Imanta Ginting Imelda Widya Ningrum Insania, Nichlata Irawan, Tanaya Anindita Irma Amanda Putri Kartika Maulida Hindrayani Kartika Maulida Hindrayani Kartini Kartini Kassim, Anuar bin Mohamed Khairunisa, Adenda Khosyi, Hanun Aufa Nur Kusdani, Kusdani Kuswardana, Dendy Arizki Linggasari, Dienna Eries Lisanthoni, Angela M Zufar Irhab S Putra Maharani Ikaningtyas Maruddani, Di Asih Mas'ad Mas'ad Maulana Pasha, Naufal Ricko Maulidiyyah, Nova Auliyatul Mohammad Idhom Mohammad Idhom Muhaimin, Amri Muhammad Muharrom Al Haromainy Munoto Nabila, Nasywa Azzah Nabilah Selayanti Nafiah, Fajria Ulumin Nariyana, Calvien Danny Nasution, Baktiar Nathania, Vannesa Ningrum, Imelda Widya Ningtiyas, Rona Wulan Nova Auliyatul Maulidiyyah Novita Anggraini Nugraheni, Setiawati Oktaviani, Sheny Eka Panglima, Talitha Fujisai Prisma Hardi Aji Riyantoko Prismahardi Aji Riyantoko Putra, Andrawana Putri, Irma Amanda Putri, Milla Akbarany Baktiar Putri, Nabila Rizky Amalia Putri, Shafira Amanda Rafiqah, Lailan Rafli Feandika Nugroho, Muhammad Ratna Yulistiani Renaldi, Sahat Rhomaningtias, Lina Riswanda, Mohammad Nizar Riyantoko, Prismahardi Aji Rizkiyah, Selly Rizqin, Indira Zein Ryan Dana, Alvin Sabela, Sefilah Naurah Safira Devi, Arsita Safira, Alya Mirza Salma Namira, Alivia Saputra, Wahyu Syaifullah Jauharis Sekar Arum Melati Sihananto, Andreas Sonhaji, Abdulah Sugiarti, Nova Putri Dwi Suprapto, Rheinka Elyana Susrama Mas Diyasa , I Gede Syamsul Rizal Tarno Tarno Taufik, Ikbar Athallah Terza Damaliana, Aviolla Tresna Maulana Fahrudin Utami, Rianti Siswi Utriweni Mukhaiyar Valentina, Tiara Wardah Ariij Adibah Wardah, Salsabila Wardani, Ajeng Puspa Wibowo, Muhammad Bagas Satrio Widayawati, Eny Widayawati, Eny Widison, Daffin Tanjiro Yuciana Wilandari Zalfa Assyadida, Azizah