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Journal : Ekonomikalia Journal of Economics

Energy Dependence, Trade Balance, and Current Account Sustainability: Evidence From ASEAN-5 Agustina, Maulidar; Majid, M. Shabri Abd.; Thahira, Zia; Dinda, Lidyana; Khairullah, Aulia; Sakuntala, Dwita
Ekonomikalia Journal of Economics Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): October 2025
Publisher : Heca Sentra Analitika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.60084/eje.v3i2.341

Abstract

This study investigates how energy dependence and trade structure influence current-account sustainability in the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam) over 2014–2023. Focusing on the region’s vulnerability to energy price volatility and evolving trade patterns, the analysis evaluates long- and short-run relationships between the current account, energy trade balance, overall trade balance, real GDP per capita, and exchange rate movements. A panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator is applied, and long-run robustness is verified using panel Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS). The results confirm a stable long-run equilibrium in which both energy and non-energy trade balances significantly and positively contribute to current-account positions. Higher real income and a depreciated exchange rate are also associated with sustained current-account improvements, reflecting capacity expansion and expenditure-switching effects. Short-run adjustments differ across countries, shaped by their import dependence, energy mix, and external balance-sheet conditions. Robustness checks affirm the stability of the estimated long-run relationships. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening energy trade resilience, enhancing non-energy tradable sectors, and maintaining prudent exchange-rate flexibility to support external sustainability in the ASEAN-5.
Co-Authors - Afrizal A Sakir, A Sakir A. Sakir, A. Abd Karim, Mohd Rahimie bin Agustina, Maulidar Amir, Fakhrurrazi Amri Amri Andri Soemitra Anggara, Windu Azhar, Thifal Bakri Abdul Karim Batubara, Zulfa Khairina Benazir ., Benazir Bismi Khalidin Chudriana Putri, Rafika Cut Windaswari, Cut Darwanis Darwanis Desy Ratnasari Dewi, Annisa Keumala Dinda, Lidyana Dwita Sakuntala Eka Octavian Pranata Erwin SP, M. Fadhil, Rahmat Faisal Faisal Fitrah Khairi Fredinan Yulianda Fuadi Fuadi Garini, Fitri Ardiya Gea, Dalmaisyah Ghazali Syamni Halim, Hendra Hartomi Maulana Idris, Sofyan Indra Yadi Putra Ismail Ismail Ismail Isnaini Harahap Kesuma, T. Meldi Khairullah, Aulia Kresna Riady, Dwi Kusmilawaty, Kusmilawaty Lada, Suddin Lubis, Fahdi Saidi Maira, Hayatun Marliyah, Marliyah Mazwan, Rasmuna Mohd. Azmi Omar Muazzinah Muazzinah Muhammad Arfan Muhammad Haris Riyaldi, Muhammad Haris Muhammad Umar Maya, Putra Muharman Lubis Mulyadi Adam, Mulyadi Mulyadi, Aka Murkhana, Murkhana Mutia, Ratna Nasir, M. Fadhil Naziruddin Abdullah Ni Made Purnami Nizam, Ahmad Nurlina, Eka Okri Handoko, Dodi Putri Bintusy Syathi, Putri Bintusy Raja Masbar Rasyimah Rasyimah Ridmailis, Ridmailis Ridwan Nurdin Riha Dedi Priantana Rita Handayani, Rita Riyaldi, M. Haris Ronald Rulindo Rosylin Mohd. Yusof Said Musnadi Sakir, A Salina Hj. Kassim Samsul Ariffin Abdul Karim Sari, Meutia Dwi Novita Sartiyah Sartiyah, Sartiyah Sasra, Said Fachrizal Sentosa, Dewi Suryani Shawab, Nabil Silvia, Vivi Siregar, Hilyati Inayah Siregar, M. Ridha Sitepu, Novi Indriyani Suriani Suriani Syahrizal, Teuku Muhammad Taufiq Carnegie Dawood Thahira, Zia ulina, sri Umuri, Khairil Venny Fraya Hartin Nst Wardhani, Izza Al Ula Zakiyah Kusuma Yani, Rina Novi Yusrizal Yusrizal Zaida Rizqi Zainul, Zaida Rizqi Zulfa Zulfa Zulhanizar, Said Zulkifli Zulkifli