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Journal : UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science

Applying Robust Spatial Autoregressive Model to Analyze the Determinants of Open Unemployment in West Java Berliana Nofriadi; Suci Rahmadani; Sepniza Nasywa; Tessy Octavia Mukhti; Yenni Kurniawati
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 3 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss3/402

Abstract

Open unemployment is a critical macroeconomic challenge in developing regions like West Java, Indonesia, where spatial disparities and data anomalies complicate traditional analysis. This study addresses these limitations by employing a Robust Spatial Autoregressive (RSAR) model with M-Estimator, integrating spatial dependence and outlier resilience to enhance estimation accuracy. Using 2024 district-level data from Indonesia’s Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and Open Data Jabar, the research examines determinants such as labor force participation, education, and regional GDP. The methodology begins with Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) to identify initial predictors, followed by spatial diagnostics (Moran’s I, Lagrange Multiplier tests) to confirm spatial autocorrelation. A customized Queen contiguity weight matrix captures neighborhood effects, while robust M-Estimation mitigates outlier distortions. Results reveal that the RSAR model achieves superior explanatory power (R² = 0.8626) compared to OLS and standard Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) models, with labor force participation (X₄) emerging as a significant negative predictor of unemployment. Spatial effects (ρ = 0.337) though modest, underscore the importance of inter-regional dynamics. The study concludes that RSAR offers a more reliable framework for regional labor analysis, combining spatial rigor with robustness against data irregularities. Policy-wise, the findings advocate targeted interventions to boost labor participation and address localized disparities, emphasizing the need for spatially informed, outlier-resistant methodologies in economic planning.
Co-Authors Abadi, Muh Yusri Abadi, Muh. Yusri Abadi, Muhammad Yusri Abdul Fattah Adani, Atiqi Tiya Adhelin Tiku Rombedatu Adhelin Tiku Rombedatu Adriyana Adevia Afriyana Amelia Nuryadin Agung Tri Satrio Aisah S , Uswatun Aisyah Nur Rahma icha Aisyah, Sity Al Fajrin, Muhammad Al Kausar, Jefri Alan S, Fajar Aliyah Maulidyana Amada Amealia Putri Amaliah Amriani. AS Amanda Amalia Putri Amran Razak Amran Razak Ana Sofiah Fitrianih Andi Awaliya Anwar Andi Awaliya Anwar Andi Awaliya Anwar Andi Selvi Yusnitasari, Andi Selvi Andi Tis’a Ramadhani Andri Andri Angelina Maharani ANISAH Annisa Farzana Firdausi Ardayanti Asmudin Arif Anwar Arista, Eva Arsunan Arsin Arum, Amanda Sekar Asmarani Ayuning Putri Asmawati Asmawati Asmawati Asmawati Balqis Balqis Balqis Balqis Berliana Nofriadi Bungsu Nur Jadidah Nst Cahyo, Robi Dwi Chelnilo Pasudi Chikita Alya Cahya Ningtyas Darmawansyah Darmawansyah Darmawansyah Darmawansyah Darmawansyah Darwis, A. Muflihah Desvia Silvana Dhea Rizky Andini Dian Ekawaty Edi Marjan Nasution Eva Arista Eva Arista Fachrul Rozy Faizal Fahmi Fajriah Azra Fajrin, Muhammad Al Fatimah Sahara Fauziah, Ayu Bella Feisha, Alifa Lulu Fhatira Ramadhany Fitri Siska Busdir Framita Rahman Friyatmi Friyatmi Gabryella Laura Mongan Ghariza Ariane Hadrianti H. D. Lasari Hamka, Nur Annisa Handini Damayanti HARYANTO Hasanah, Nurul Riska Hasniati Hamzah HR, Arvina Pebrianti Ikhsan, Muhammad Nurul Inayah Nur Rahmaniyah Inayatul Izzah Indar Iswahyu Pranawukir Jayadi, Nasrah Jorgi Sutan , Arissy Khaeratun Hisan Khairunnisa Tadjuddin Kusumawati, Tri Indah Ladong, Ar Fani Fanessa Laksmi Trisasmita Mangindara, Mangindara Marini Amalia Mansur Marzuki, Dian Saputra Mattaliu, Salsabila Dwi Qalbi Maulidina, Cindy Merni Mega Marindrawati Rochka Mega Marindrawati Rochka Mega Marindrawati Rochka Mhd. Bangsawan Nasution Muammar Muammar, Muammar Muh. Amri Arfandi Muh. Yusri Abadi Muh. Yusri Abadi Muhammad Alwy Arifin Muhammad Alwy Arifin Muhammad Syafar Muhammad Syafar Muhammad Syahrizal Muhammad Yusri Abadi Muhammad Yusri Abadi Musdalifah Muzhaffar, Zaky Nasrah Jayadi Nasrah, Nasrah Nazaruddin, Balqis Ni Made Viantika Sulianderi Nia Agustina Norliani Nova Umi Soimah Novia Rizal, Azira Nur Afni Ponseng Nur Alisa Rahim Nur Annisa Hamka Nur Annisa Hamka Nur Azizah Aini Fitratullah Yusuf Nur Iftitah Ivan P Nur Rahmah, Mutia Nurhani Nurhani Nurhayani nurhayani Nurliyah Lia Nurul afivah Syan Nurwahidah Nurdin Okka Adiyanto Powiec, Nichola Fillips Putri, Revi Jeane Rahman, Abraham Rahmanpiu, Rahmanpiu Reski Fadilah Putri Rezky Hasyim Syah Riangga Putra Saldi Ridwan Mochtar Thaha Rifka Zakilah Djafar Riki Wahyudi Risma Aprianti Risna Suhro Rizal, Azira Novia Rosanti Salsa Bela, Dinda Rosdiana Rosmanely, St. Roy Rizky Pulungan Ryryn Suryaman Sabrina, Elisa Sazeta, Mirza Senja Narmansyah Sepniza Nasywa Shofwani, Siti Aniqoh Siti Hasanah Sri Rahmah Haruna St Rosmanely St. Risky Muthmainnah Ansar St. Rosmanely St. Rosmanely St. Rosmanely Suci Fajriani S Sukri Palutturi Sukri Palutturi Suriah Suriah Suriah Syafa, Banasya Syamsuar Manyullei Tessy Octavia Mukhti Tjiang, Faliani Chandra Viky Indra Mahendra B Vitra Amanda Wahyu Gunawan Wanni Nur Jannah Wardi, Syah Widiantika, Alifa Rosa Yeni Tavia Yenni Kurniawati Yuana Wira Dwi Satya Ilham Putra Yuanda, Richa Yulsyofriend, Yulsyofriend Zul Fatiha Lukmayani