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All Journal MANAJEMEN HUTAN TROPIKA Journal of Tropical Forest Management POSITRON Jurnal Neutrino : jurnal fisika dan aplikasinya Physics Student Journal Proceeding International Conference on Global Resource Conservation Natural B Gravity : Jurnal Ilmiah Penelitian dan Pembelajaran Fisika Journal of Geoscience, Engineering, Environment, and Technology JOIV : International Journal on Informatics Visualization Civil Engineering Journal JMM (Jurnal Masyarakat Mandiri) JURNAL TEKNIK INFORMATIKA DAN SISTEM INFORMASI Indonesian Physical Review Mitra Akademia: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Prosiding SNPBS (Seminar Nasional Pendidikan Biologi dan Saintek) AMPLITUDO: Journal of Science & Technology Innovation Indonesian Journal of Forestry Research Jurnal Geosaintek Global Review of Tourism and Social Sciences
Adi Susilo
Jurusan Fisika Fakultas MIPA Universitas Brawijaya Malang
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Astronomy Automotive Engineering Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology Physics Social Sciences Other

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Journal : AMPLITUDO: Journal of Science

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A Hybrid Ensemble Framework for Probabilistic Earthquake Forecasting in Northern California in Support of SDG 11: Sustainable and Resilient Cities Madlazim, Madlazim; Musta, Baba; Doyan, Aris; Susilo, Adi; Rehman, Khaista
AMPLITUDO : Journal of Science and Technology Innovation Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026): February
Publisher : Balai Publikasi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56566/amplitudo.v5i1.496

Abstract

Forecasting earthquakes is still one of the most difficult problems in geophysics, mainly because seismic activity is irregular and often influenced by many factors that interact in complex ways. In this study, we develop a leakage-controlled hybrid ensemble model that combines CatBoost, LightGBM, XGBoost, and Gradient Boosting to predict five earthquake parameters: magnitude, depth, latitude, longitude, and a scaled inter-event interval in Northern California. These models were trained using USGS earthquake data ranging from 1900 to 2025 (M ≥ 4.0), with a process designed to prevent time leakage through strict time separation, a moving window feature, and prospective validation. Overall, the hybrid models produced consistently low MAE and RMSE values ​​and very high R² values ​​(above 0.99) for all target variables. While the estimates performed impressively, the results should be interpreted in a probabilistic context, with recognition of the inherent uncertainty of seismic processes. The framework proposed here provides a clear and replicable approach that can support the development of systems for more reliable short-term earthquake forecasting
Co-Authors Achmad Fakhrus Shomim, Achmad Fakhrus Adinegara, Aldo W. Agastya, Ida Bagus Oka Agung Teguh Wibowo Almais Agung, P. A. Maha Agus Naba Agus Pajrin Ahmad Hanif Al Fathoni, Ahmad Hanif Ahmad Luthfin Ahmad, Mustaffa A. Akhmad Jufriadi Alamsyah Muhammad Juwono ALathief Fashihullisan Andriansyah, M. Annabil, Achmad Achdan Aprilia, Faridha Aris Doyan Asep Setiyo Budi Atok Yuliantono aunur rozaq B. Heri Purwanto Bagus Suryawan Bambang Aviantara Bambang Avianthara Barika Novanta Bunga Puspita, Mayang Chandra, Yuliana Iik Iswanti Dadan Dani Wardhana Denny Denny Yatmadi Deny Saputra Devita Fisas Riyanti Diah Ayu Chumairoh Dimas Pramudito Dipika Anggun Ardianti, Dipika Anggun Dolly Priatna dwi ajeng enggarwati Dwi Febriana Rochmah, Dwi Febriana Dwinanda, Indah Gumilang Eko Andi Suryo Fajar Rakhmanto Fajrin, Rahma Annisa Fakhruddin, Fian Farid Hosni Faridha Aprilia Ganjar Sulastomo Gumelar, Dito Ibrahim Habibiy Idmi, Mohammad Halimah Halimah Hanafi, Muhammad Gusti Alif Zuhry Haniyyah, Saffanatul Hartiningtias, Diny Hermawan, Erwan Hetty Triastuty Hikhmadhan Gultaf Hisyam, Farizky Ibnu fajar sidik Idmi, Mohammad Habibiy Ilham Ilham indria restika anggraeni Intan Dewi Meutia Sari Juhari Juhari, Juhari Juwono, Alamsyah M Juwono, Alamsyah M. Kamali, Ahmad Byan Kevin Aulia Sandi Pratama Kukuh Suprayogi, Kukuh Kuni Azizah Lambertus Francisco Lestari, Santi Arum Puspita Madlazim Madlazim Maryanto - Mauludi Ariesto Pamungkas Mayang Bunga Puspita Moechammad Sarosa Monk, Kathryn A Mu'in, Fatkhul Muhajir Anshori Muhammad Fathur Rouf Hasan Muhammad Hendrasto Muhardi Mujtaba, Mochammad Wafa Husain Muslih Udin Muslim, Teguh Musta, Baba Muwardi Sutasoma Nefrizal Nefrizal Nosevin Mangasi Onrizal Onrizal Osa, Dominggus Benyamin Pegatariana, I Ketut Ari Pratiwie, Dessy Lutfiani Putu Ayu Saraswati Razi, Mohd Adib Mohammad Rehman, Khaista Rika Mayasyafa, Rika rizky gustiansyah Rofi Ridho Nurbilad, Rofi Ridho Rohana, Tatang Salman Hamja Siombone sania cahya maulida Sasmita Fidyaningrum Siti Jazimah Iswarin Sri Herwiningsih Sukir Sukir Sunaryo - Surya Aji Ermanto Suryanto Suryanto Sutan Haji, Alexander T. SUTIKNO Teguh Suroso Titi Kalima Tri Deni Rachman Wasis M.AB, Wasis Wasis Wasis Wasis Wasis Welayaturromadhona Widyasandy, Dhony Yana Cahyana Yasa Suparman Yesika Wahyu Indrianti Yudianto, Didik Yunika, Nieske Ari Zainatul Afidah, Zainatul Zainorabidin, Adnan