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Journal : REKAYASA

Optimasi Model Natural Rural Electrical Cooperation Agency Untuk Memprediksi Debit Aliran Bulanan di Sub DAS Lesti Suhartanto, Ery; Andawayanti, Ussy; Dara Lufira, Rahmah; Utami, Rizki Tri
Rekayasa Vol 18, No 3: Desember, 2025
Publisher : Universitas Trunojoyo Madura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21107/rekayasa.v18i3.31267

Abstract

Climate change and land use change in the Lesti Sub-DAS increase the risk of flooding and land degradation, requiring reliable flow predictions to support water resource management. However, the performance of the NRECA model in predicting monthly flows in this region is still not optimal because calibration-validation strategies and the use of environmental parameters have not been systematically studied. This study optimizes the NRECA model to predict monthly discharge for the period 2011-2020 in the Lesti sub-watershed by calibrating the GWF and PSUB parameters based on rainfall, evapotranspiration, and watershed morphometry data in three data division scenarios (70:30, 80:20, and 90:10 for calibration:validation). The results show that all scenarios produce excellent performance with calibration Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values between 0.99491-0.99561 and correlation coefficients (R) between 0.99746-0.99785, while validation yielded NSE values between 0.89112-0.97227 and R between 0.49959-0.81520. The best scenario was obtained with a combination of 8 years of calibration and 2 years of validation, with NSE = 0.99561 and R = 0.99785 at the calibration stage, and NSE = 0.97227 and R = 0.81512 at the validation stage, indicating the model's ability to consistently represent monthly discharge variations. The similarity between the model discharge pattern and observations during the base and peak flow periods indicates that GWF optimization specifically improves the representation of base flow response. This study contributes by presenting an optimization-based calibration-validation scheme for the NRECA model, which can be used as a reference in conservation planning and reservoir operation management in watersheds with limited data.
Co-Authors A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W Achmad Marzuqi, Achmad Adelia Riska Pratama Agasi, Angga alif, chalid jul Aliyah, Firda Samaniyatul Andre Primantyo Hendrawan Andriantari, Nur Fadhlillah Anggara WWS Anis, Mizun Bariroh Arief, Amalia Mardhatillah Arif Rahmad Darmawan Aulia Zahira, Nabila Azhar Adi Darmawan Azzahra, Arrum Bagaskoro, Qistan Maraghi Beselly Putra, Sebrian Mirdeklis Cahyani Ainin Dewanti, Wahyuning Dian Sisinggih Dini Rosvita Tri A. Donny Harisuseno Edison Hukom Elang Timur M. Patih Ragananda Emma Yuliani Endang Purwati RN Erryanto, Sandi Ery Suhartanto Ery Suhartanto evanur Hendrasari, evanur Evi Nur Cahya Fitriani, Deshinta Fitriyasari, Ammy Furqani, Fahma Handoko, Shubhananda Aulia hari siswoyo Hariyanto, Andri Kwin Haromain, Safira Anisah Harya Muldianto Hidayah, Mita Nur Hidayat, Mustafa Mukti I Gusti Ngurah Antariza I Wayan Yasa, I Wayan Imani, Reyhan Satya Irenne Ismayanti Romadona Kusumabrata, Luffi Lailatul Mukarromah, Lailatul Laksono Trisnantoro Lenny Febriana Ideawati, Lenny Febriana Lily Montarcih Limantara Linda Prasetyorini Luh Natasya Karini Putri Lukman Hakim M. Amar Sajali M. Bisri M. Janu Ismoyo Maharani, Fiadita Maharani, Yasinta Surya Moch Rizky Moh. Sholichin Mohammad Bisri Mohammad Bisri Muhammad Adhitya Aldi nama, arnoldus Napitupulu, Ruth Erditha Nashrullah, Imam Nurrohma Amalia, Nadhea Paksi, R. Susenatama Jatayu Pancaputri, Widyaiswara Parmawati, Rita Pitojo Tri Juwono Pradany, Ahmad Dwiki Pramesi, Gading Komala Pratama, Rizki Ramadani Pratama, Rizki Ramadhani Pratiwi, Mitha Aprilia Pulasari, Luh Ayu Putri Wedayanti Putra, Farhan Akbar Darma Putra, Rizky Almarendra Wirawan Putri, Angelina Satya Qomariyatus Sholihah Qomarul Huda, Qomarul Rachmanto, Fariz Bayu Rahmah Dara Lufira Ramadhani, Tresna Asih Utami Ramadhania, Salsabila ramdhani, fitroh Resmani, Eva Respatiningrum, Amalia Wara Rispiningtati Rispiningtati Rita Parmawati Rizki Ramadhani Runi Asmaranto Santi Sari Sapto Dwi Hari Oktavianto Saputra, Candra Tri Sariyanti, Ni Komang Yuli Satria, Bagus Harjo Secilia, Melinda Priskila Sekar Padma Lestari Shabrina, Salsabila Sholichin, M. Sholichin, Moch. Sofriansyah, Rafi Satria Sri Wahyuni Suhardjono Suhardjono Suhartanto , Ery Sumiadi Sumiadi, Sumiadi Suwanto Marsudi Tri Budi Prayogo, Tri Budi Tsuyoshi Imai, Tsuyoshi Tuhepaly, Firman Syarif Tyas Daru, Tyas Utami, Rizki Tri Very Dermawan Widandi Soetopo Yudianto, Engelbertus Fajar Zahrani, Nafisah Zalma, Nasywah Miftahul