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All Journal PROSIDING SEMINAR NASIONAL CENDEKIAWAN Jurnal Teknik Mesin dan Mekatronika (Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Mechatronics) Community Empowerment Jurnal Abdi Masyarakat Indonesia PROSIDING SEMINAR NASIONAL FISIKA (E-JOURNAL) Jurnal Penelitian dan Karya Ilmiah Lembaga Penelitian Universitas Trisakti INDONESIAN JOURNAL OF URBAN AND ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY Jurnal AKAL: Abdimas dan Kearifan Lokal Petro : Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Perminyakan JURNAL ABDI MASYARAKAT INDONESIA (JAMIN) Journal of Earth Energy Science, Engineering, and Technology Jurnal Eksakta Kebumian Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas
Bayu Satiyawira
Universitas Trisakti
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A System Dynamics Approach to Analyze Biodiesel Production and Oil Import Dependency in Indonesia Andry Prima; Bayu Satiyawira; Havidh Pramadika; Daud Asrun Nauw; Lisa Samura; Mustamina Maulani; Cahaya Rosyidan; Maman Djumantara; Djunaedi Agus Wibowo; Wiwik Dahani; Osama Jawaid Butt
Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas Vol 49 No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Testing Center for Oil and Gas LEMIGAS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29017/scog.v49i2.2019

Abstract

Indonesia’s persistent dependence on imported diesel fuel poses significant challenges to national energy security, fiscal stability, and exposure to global market volatility. In response, the government plans to implement a mandatory B50 biodiesel blending policy starting in 2026 to reduce diesel imports by leveraging domestic bioenergy resources. While higher blending mandates are often assumed to directly lower imports, existing studies largely rely on static or deterministic approaches that inadequately capture feedback dynamics and long-term uncertainty. This study addresses this gap by integrating system dynamics modelling with Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the impact of biodiesel blending policies on diesel import dependency under structural and parametric uncertainty. The model incorporates biodiesel production growth, domestic allocation after exports, diesel demand growth, and blending effectiveness within a feedback-based framework calibrated using historical data from 2013 to 2024. Simulation results indicate that the B50 policy consistently reduces diesel import requirements relative to the baseline; however, absolute imports may continue to rise without sufficient domestic supply expansion. Cumulative results show that by 2035, the B50 policy achieves import reductions of approximately 55–58 million kiloliters, increasing to around 60 million kiloliters when combined with accelerated biodiesel production growth. Monte Carlo analysis reveals robust medium-term outcomes by 2030 but increasing uncertainty by 2035. The findings highlight that blending mandates must be accompanied by sustained supply-side development to ensure long-term effectiveness and resilience.
Co-Authors Ali Sundja Andry Prima Apriandi Rizkina Rangga Wastu Apriyandi Rizki Aqlyna Fattahanisa Arinda Ristawati Arinda Ristawati Arinda Riswati Arkaan, Muhammad Dzaki Aryanto, Reza Asri Nugrahanti Asri Nugrahanti, Asri Aulia Alfath Brilliani Bujasuandi Maulana Cahaya Rosidan Cahaya Rosyidan Chusniyah , Dina Asmaul Daud Asrun Nauw Djunaedi Agus Wibowo Fattahanisa , Aqlyna Foggie Sciorra Frijani Fajri AL Lail G. Gunawan Gabriella Jasmine Galih Imanurdana Ghanima Yasmaniar hanz seca rifansyah cipta maheza Harin Widiyatni Havid Pramadika Havidh Pramadika Henry Young Hidayat, Hifdzan Rizki Husla, Ridha Indriani Agustina Irvan Yulian Pratama Irvan Yulian Pratama Kalfin Ramanda Situmorang Kashah, Muhammad Refli Kevin Ariko Yuwandhika Kevin Lukas Pearlo Koesmawardani, Wildan Tri Listiana Satiawati Listiana Satiawati, Listiana Livia Ailen Dharma M. Kemal Disaputra Maman Djumantara Maman Djumantara, Maman Maulani , Mustamina Maulani, Mustamina Mentari Gracia Soekardy Michael, David Mikhael Rumbang Mohammad Apriniyadi Muhammad Burhannudinnur Muhammad Ridhal Malik Syafrudin Mulia Ginting Mulia Ginting Mustamina Maulani Osama Jawaid Butt Pauhesti Pauhesti Pearlo, Kevin Lukas Pramadika, Havid Puri Wijanti puri wijayanti Putra, Christopher Abiel Pangestu Raihan Ramadhan Rakha Handika Putra Ratnayu Sitaresmi Renanda, Raka Ilham Ridha Husla Risfan, Risfan Riswati, Arinda Rosmalia Dita Nugraheni Rosyidan , Cahaya Samsol Samura, Lisa Sheyla Putri Maharani Sigit Rahmawan Siregar, Binsar M. Soekardy, Mentari Gracia Suherman Dwi Nuryana Suryo Prakoso, Suryo Widia Yanti, Widia Wiwik Dahani wiwik dahani, wiwik Yulia, Prayang Sunny Zakiah D. Nurfajrin zakiah darajat Ziad Ziad