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All Journal Jurnal Edukasi dan Penelitian Informatika (JEPIN) Journal of Information Systems Engineering and Business Intelligence InfoTekJar : Jurnal Nasional Informatika dan Teknologi Jaringan Sinkron : Jurnal dan Penelitian Teknik Informatika International Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research Language Literacy: Journal of Linguistics, Literature, and Language Teaching IJISTECH (International Journal Of Information System & Technology) KOMIK (Konferensi Nasional Teknologi Informasi dan Komputer) JURNAL TEKNOLOGI DAN ILMU KOMPUTER PRIMA (JUTIKOMP) Jurnal Mantik TRIDARMA: Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat (PkM) REMIK : Riset dan E-Jurnal Manajemen Informatika Komputer Journal of Computer Networks, Architecture and High Performance Computing Jurnal Akuntansi, Manajemen dan Ilmu Ekonomi (JASMIEN) IJISTECH Journal of Applied Data Sciences Yayasan Cita Cendikiawan Al Khwarizmi Brilliance: Research of Artificial Intelligence Jurnal Minfo Polgan (JMP) Jurnal Masyarakat Indonesia Prioritas : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Data Sciences Indonesia (DSI) International Journal of Multidisciplinary Sciences and Arts Jurnal Manajemen Dan Akuntansi Medan Journal of Computer Science and Research Deli Sains Informatika JATAED: Journal of Appropriate Technology for Agriculture, Environment, and Development PERFECT: Journal of Smart Algorithms Jurnal Sistem Informasi Komputer
Muhammad Khoiruddin Harahap
Politeknik Ganesha Medan, Indonesia
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Journal : Journal of Applied Data Sciences

 1 
Machine Learning Models for Predicting Flood Events Using Weather Data: An Evaluation of Logistic Regression, LightGBM, and XGBoost Maharina, Maharina; Paryono, Tukino; Fauzi, Ahmad; Indra, Jamaludin; Sihabudin, Sihabudin; Harahap, Muhammad Khoiruddin; Rizki, Lutfi Trisandi
Journal of Applied Data Sciences Vol 6, No 1: JANUARY 2025
Publisher : Bright Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47738/jads.v6i1.503

Abstract

This study examines flood prediction in Jakarta, Indonesia, a pressing concern due to its significant implications for public safety and urban management. Machine Learning (ML) presents promising methodologies for accurately forecasting floods by leveraging weather data. However, flood prediction in Jakarta remains challenging due to the city’s highly variable weather patterns, including fluctuations in rainfall, humidity, temperature, and wind characteristics. Existing methods often struggle with these complexities, as they rely on traditional ML models such as K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), which may not capture certain patterns or provide high accuracy and robustness. Therefore, this study proposes three ML methods—Logistic Regression (LR), LightGBM, and XGBoost—to predict floods accurately. Five performance metrics (i.e., accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), precision, recall, and F1-score) were used to measure and compare the accuracy of the algorithms. The proposed method consists of three main processes. The first process involves data preprocessing and evaluation using 14 different ML models. In the second process, additional feature engineering is applied to improve the quality of the data. Finally, the third process combines the previous steps with oversampling techniques and cross-validation methods. This structured approach aims to enhance the overall performance of the analysis. The experimental results show that Process 3 significantly improves performance compared to Processes 1 and 2. The model predicts floods with an accuracy score of 93.82% for LR, 96.67% for XGBoost, and 96.81% for LightGBM, respectively. Thus, the proposed model offers a solution for operational decision-making in flood risk management, including flood mitigation planning.
Co-Authors . Zulfan AA Sudharmawan, AA Abdul Samad Adidtya Perdana, Adidtya Aditya, Vikra Afriani, Dina Amir Mahmud Husein Amir Mahmud Husein, Amir Mahmud Amir Mahmud Husein, Mawaddah Harahap, Amir Amsar Yunan Amsar, Amsar Anugreni, Fera Ariany, Vince Arie Budiansyah Aritonang, Romulo P. Atabiq, Fauzun Ayesha Muazzam Candra, Rudi Arif Clawdia, Jhessica Dian Pratiwi, Aulya Dicky Apdilah Diding Kusnady Dimas Sasongko Dina Afriani Eko Pramono Epi, Yus Erwinsyah Sipahutar Evan Afri Evan Afri Fachrul Rozi Lubis Ferdy Riza Firnanda, Ary Ginting, Rico Imanta Handayani, Saskia Hantono Hantono Haris Lubis, Abdul Hariyanti, Irma Herry Setiawan Herry Setiawan Ilham, Dirja Nur Indra Surya, Indra Indra, Jamaludin Intan Maulina, Intan Jannah, Dina Miftahul Jhessica Clawdia Juanda Hakim Lubis Khairuman Khairuman Man Lubis, Fachrul Rozi Maharina, Maharina Maqfirah Mhd Zulfansyuri Siambaton Miza, Khairul Mohammed Saad Talib Muhammad Hamza Muhammad Rian Almadani Mursidah natasha, Syarifah fadillah Natasya, Syarifah Fadillah Novita, Hilda Yulia Nursila Nursila Nursila, Nursila Nurul Khairina Nurul Khairina Nurul Khairina Pania, Sadri Paryono, Tukino Patel , Hrishitva Permata, Riski Surya Rina Rina Rizki, Lutfi Trisandi Rizky, Muharratul Mina Rosihana, Riscki Elita S.SE,MM, Yanti Salsa Dilah Cicilia Putri Sandi Pratama Saputra, Devi Satria Sepri Kurniadi Sihabudin Sihabudin, Sihabudin Sridewi, Nurmala Surya Hendraputra Syifa Setiawan, Muhammad Afdhalu Talib, Mohammed Saad Urmila, Tasya Wahyudi Lubis Xu, Chlap Min Zhu, Kong Huang Zonyfar, Candra