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IMPLEMENTATION OF ARIMA METHOD TO FORECAST CPI FOR COICOP OF FOOD, BEVERAGE AND TOBACCO IN NEW NORMAL PERIOD Mahuda, Isnaini; Rahmawati, Septi Dwi; Sukmawati, Sri; Abdullah, Syarif
Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika Vol. 4 No. 2 (2024): Jurnal Bayesian : Jurnal Ilmiah Statistika dan Ekonometrika
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/bay.v4i2.87

Abstract

CPI is one of the economic indicators that can provide information on development of prices for goods and services paid by consumers or the society, especially urban societies. CPI is usually used to measure price changes, but not to measure the price level. In addition, the CPI also can be used as a benchmark to determine inflation or deflation in a certain area. CPI value after the COVID-19 pandemic is the object to be predicted. There are 11 category in the CPI. This category is named COICOP which one of it is food, beverage and tobacco. The purpose of this research was to determine the ARIMA model to forecast the CPI value in the COICOP of food, beverage and tobacco in Banten Province. The data used is CPI data of COICOP for food, beverage and tobacco in Banten period January 2019 to April 2022. Based on these data obtained several prospective ARIMA models that passed the model diagnostic stage. The Models are ARIMA (0.3,1), ARIMA (1,3,0) and ARIMA (2,3,0) with MSE 1.1294, 1.9496 and 1.2484. The ARIMA (0.3.1) model was chosen because it has the smallest MSE value of 1.1294. Forecasting using the ARIMA (0.3.1) model obtained a significant increase in the CPI value from May to December 2022
Analysis of Risk Factors Associated with Measles Incidence in Toddlers in South Halmahera Regency Abdullah, Syarif; Anggraini, Novita Ana; Peristiowati, Yuly
Journal La Medihealtico Vol. 6 No. 1 (2025): Journal La Medihealtico
Publisher : Newinera Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37899/journallamedihealtico.v6i1.1836

Abstract

Measles is an internal disease (VPD) caused by Morbilivirus. This disease is characterized by the appearance of fever, reddish spots, cough, runny nose, red eyes and rashes all over the body which generally occurs in children. Measles, also known as Morbili or Measles, is a disease caused by the measles virus of the Paramyxovirus group. Transmission can occur through air that has been contaminated by droplets (spit) of an infected person. This case tends to attack early childhood and elementary school age children. Once a person has had measles, he or she will have lifelong immunity to the disease The aim of this research is to determine the factors related to the incidence of measles in toddlers in South Halmahera Regency. The research design used is quantitative research using a "case control" approach. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling with a sample of 106 consisting of 53 case groups and 53 control respondents. Data analysis techniques use Chi Square, Multivariate and Logistic Regression tests. The results of the research show that of the 106 respondents studied, the factors that most influence the incidence of measles in toddlers 0 - 59 months based on the beta value and p value, it is found that the environmental variable has a value < α, namely .021 and the beta value is -1.830, so the variable with the most dominant is the environment. Conclusion. The factors that most influence the occurrence of measles are environmental factors, so it is necessary to conduct socialization or education on the importance of environmental cleanliness to prevent the emergence of measles in children under five.
Digital literacy outreach: Wise use of digital media in Sumberjaya Village, Sumur, Pandeglang Ula, Shofiatul; Susilo, Sidik; Pinem, Mekro Permana; Abdullah, Syarif; Pramujad, Adam; Zaidan, Athallah
Journal of Community Service in Science and Engineering (JoCSE) Vol 4, No 1 (2025): Available Online in April 2025
Publisher : Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62870/jocse.v4i1.32280

Abstract

The advancement of digital technology has reached various regions in Indonesia, including Sumberjaya Village, where internet access—particularly through smartphones—is widely available. While digital media offers numerous benefits, it also presents potential risks. Therefore, understanding appropriate usage guidelines, communication ethics, and information filtering is essential to minimize negative impacts. This community outreach program employed a participatory group method consisting of four main stages: observation, presentation, focus group discussion (FGD), and evaluation. The results of the program indicate that participants have significantly improved their digital literacy across three core dimensions: technological proficiency, cognitive awareness, and ethical behavior. These enhancements are expected to contribute positively to the community’s overall quality of life and resilience in navigating digital environments. Kemajuan teknologi digital telah merambah berbagai daerah di Indonesia, termasuk Desa Sumberjaya, yang akses internetnya sudah sangat luas, khususnya melalui telepon pintar. Media digital menawarkan banyak manfaat, tetapi juga berpotensi menimbulkan risiko. Oleh karena itu, pemahaman tentang pedoman penggunaan, etika komunikasi, dan penyaringan informasi yang tepat sangat penting untuk meminimalkan dampak negatif. Program pengabdian masyarakat ini menggunakan metode kelompok partisipatif yang terdiri dari empat tahap utama: observasi, presentasi, diskusi kelompok terfokus (FGD), dan evaluasi. Hasil program menunjukkan bahwa peserta telah meningkatkan literasi digital secara signifikan dalam tiga dimensi inti: kemahiran teknologi, kesadaran kognitif, dan perilaku etis. Peningkatan ini diharapkan dapat memberikan kontribusi positif terhadap kualitas hidup masyarakat secara keseluruhan dan ketahanan dalam mengarungi lingkungan digital.
Implementation of eco-enzyme technology: an innovative solution for organic waste management Proni, Raffles Putra; Putri, Elysia Tanya; Fathmi, Nur Fajria Amalia; Yulianti, Devi; Septiani, Melti; Azhar, Fawwaz Nur; Baehaki, Ahmad; Maharani, Siti Destiana; Sudiani, Rizka Falah; Salsabila, Adinda Kanza; Rofikoh, Siti Nayatu; Lestari, Rini Dwi; Yulianti, Amalia Dwi; Faizah, Nabila; Manik, Heni Novyani; Nurlaila, Sinta; Oktaviani, Risma; Abdullah, Syarif
Journal of Community Service in Science and Engineering (JoCSE) Vol 4, No 1 (2025): Available Online in April 2025
Publisher : Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62870/jocse.v4i1.31235

Abstract

Waste management remains a pressing challenge in modern society, largely due to limited public awareness regarding its importance. This study offers a transformative approach by redefining waste—particularly organic waste—not as mere refuse, but as a potential economic asset. Although biodegradable, organic waste is often left untreated, leading to missed opportunities for resource recovery. This research highlights the utilization of eco-enzyme, a product of organic waste fermentation over a three-month period, as an innovative and sustainable waste treatment method. The resulting eco-enzyme liquid functions effectively as a natural cleaning agent and soil enhancer, contributing to environmental restoration by reducing heavy metal content and stabilizing soil pH. From an economic standpoint, the use of eco-enzyme reduces dependence on conventional cleaning products, thereby lowering household expenses. Overall, the findings advocate for a paradigm shift in organic waste handling—demonstrating its dual value in environmental improvement and economic efficiency—while laying the groundwork for more sustainable waste management models.  Pengelolaan limbah masih menjadi tantangan yang mendesak dalam masyarakat modern, terutama karena terbatasnya kesadaran masyarakat mengenai pentingnya limbah. Studi ini menawarkan pendekatan transformatif dengan mendefinisikan ulang limbah—khususnya limbah organik—bukan hanya sebagai sampah, tetapi sebagai aset ekonomi yang potensial. Meskipun dapat terurai secara hayati, limbah organik sering kali tidak diolah, sehingga menyebabkan hilangnya peluang untuk pemulihan sumber daya. Penelitian ini menyoroti pemanfaatan eko-enzim, produk fermentasi limbah organik selama periode tiga bulan, sebagai metode pengelolaan limbah yang inovatif dan berkelanjutan. Cairan eko-enzim yang dihasilkan berfungsi efektif sebagai agen pembersih alami dan penambah tanah, berkontribusi pada pemulihan lingkungan dengan mengurangi kandungan logam berat dan menstabilkan pH tanah. Dari sudut pandang ekonomi, penggunaan eko-enzim mengurangi ketergantungan pada produk pembersih konvensional, sehingga menurunkan pengeluaran rumah tangga. Secara keseluruhan, temuan tersebut menganjurkan perubahan paradigma dalam penanganan limbah organik—yang menunjukkan nilai gandanya dalam perbaikan lingkungan dan efisiensi ekonomi—sambil meletakkan dasar bagi model pengelolaan limbah yang lebih berkelanjutan.
ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF COAL QUALITY ON STEAM PRESSURE PRODUCED BY BOILER ENGINES IN PT. SINAR MEADOW INTERNATIONAL INDONESIA Marvel, Marchello; Lusiani, Rina; Ula, Shofiatul; Jannah, Miftahul; Nugraha, Kurnia; Bagaskara, Rafly Priyantama Ramadhan; Mursyidah, Himmatul; Abdullah, Syarif
Trends in Mechanical Engineering Research Vol 2, No 1 (2024): June
Publisher : Department of Mechanical Engineering, Universitas Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62870/timer.v2i1.26163

Abstract

In general, coal fossil fuel reserves are the main load in the industry, especially in the use of boiler engines. Coal comprises carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen, sulfur, and mineral compounds. A boiler engine is a machine that produces high-pressure water vapor by heating water through fuels such as coal. The water vapor can then be used for various purposes, such as heating oil in the oil manufacturing industry, especially PT. Meadow Rays. Steam is an effective and inexpensive medium for transferring heat to a process. Coal plays an important role in the operation of boiler engines because coal is one of the fuels that is often used in the heating process. The quality of the coal can affect the quality of the steam produced by the boiler engine. Suitable coal shape for boilers at PT. Meadow rays are generally solid or solid, such as chunks, fractional coal, or bituminous coal that has a large coal size that has a mesh size between 3.2 mm to 6.3 mm or about 1/8 to 1/4 inch. This is because the solid, dense form of coal has a higher density and lower porosity, so it can retain heat better and provide a smaller surface for the combustion process. Coal users must be provided to PT. Sinar Meadow must have a minimum calorie of 6300 kcal/kg, for the efficiency and safety of the boiler at PT. Meadow Rays. Therefore, paying attention to the coal quality used in boiler engines is important to produce high-quality and efficient steam.
CONCEPT OF DIGITALIZATION OF SAILING LINE IN CRITICAL AREA THROUGH FISHING BOAT GENERATED WAVE IDENTIFICATION Suprayogi, Dedy Triawan; Satria, Dhimas; Haryadi, Haryadi; Nugraha, Kurnia; Abdullah, Syarif; Erwin, Erwin
Trends in Mechanical Engineering Research Vol 2, No 2 (2024): December
Publisher : Department of Mechanical Engineering, Universitas Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62870/timer.v2i2.30949

Abstract

This paper explores the concept of digitalization in critical sailing lines to manage ship-generated waves (SGW), with a focus on fishing boats. Indonesia, as a maritime nation, faces challenges due to the environmental impact of SGW, such as riverbank erosion, habitat disruption, and damage to marine infrastructure. The proposed digital framework integrates real-time environmental data, including tidal conditions, river currents, and water depth, with vessel parameters like speed and GPS tracking. This system aims to provide accessible information through websites and smartphone applications, enabling safer and more efficient navigation. The results highlight the importance of digitalization in enhancing maritime safety, reducing environmental damage, and improving operational efficiency for fishermen and port operators. 
EMISSIONS AND FUEL CONSUMPTION OF SINGLE CYLINDER DIESEL ENGINE USING PLASTIC FUEL Sudrajad, Agung; Wiyono, Slamet; Jannah, Miftahul; Abdullah, Syarif; Listijorini, Erny
Trends in Mechanical Engineering Research Vol 1, No 1 (2023): June
Publisher : Department of Mechanical Engineering, Universitas Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62870/timer.v1i1.20797

Abstract

This paper deals with the exhaust emission of plastic fuel on single cylinder diesel engine. The objectives of this research are to analyze the fuel consumption and the emission characteristic of a single cylinder diesel engine that are using plastic fuel compared to usage of ordinary diesel that are available in the market. This paper describes the setups and the procedures for the experiment which is to analyze the emissions characteristics and fuel consumption of diesel engine due to usage of the both fuels. The experiment used diesel engine with no load which means no load exerted on it. Detail studies about the experimental setup and components have been done before the experiment started. The obtained data indicated that the diesel fuel is better than waste plastic disposal fuel in term of fuel consumption, emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). The successful of the project have been stated which is engine is able to run with plastic fuel but the engine needs to run by using diesel fuel first, then followed by plastic fuel and finished with diesel fuel as the last fuel usage before the engine turned off.
ANALYSIS OF OPTIMUM CONTROL ON THE IMPLEMENTATION OF VACCINATION AND QUARANTINE ON THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 Nuha, Agusyarif Rezka; Achmad, Novianita; Rahman, Gusti Arviana; Abdullah, Syarif; Chasanah, Sri Istiyarti Uswatun; Valentika, Nina; Nashar, La Ode
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 16 No 4 (2022): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (426.143 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol16iss4pp1139-1146

Abstract

This study constructs an SVIR-type COVID-19 spread model into a model with control variables or optimum control problems. In the formulation of the model with controls, we set four control variables, namely vaccination strategy, quarantine, reduction of vaccine shrinkage, and treatment. Pontryagin 's maximum principle is applied in the model as a sufficient condition to achieve optimum conditions for minimizing the objective function . This study uses a numerical solution to describe the theoretical results. The results showed that the control model could accelerate the decrease in the number of individuals in the infected population class. We found that vaccination is a top priority that needs to be done to reduce the number of cases of COVID-19 infection. In addition, the implementation of quarantine can also be considered to accelerate the decrease in the number of individuals infected with COVID-19.
Implementasi Penggunaan Generalisasi Thinning Process pada Penduga Fungsi Ragam Proses Poisson Periodik Majemuk Abdullah, Syarif; Mangku, I Wayan; Mursyidah, Himmatul; Huda, Mifathul; Ikhsan, Fajri; Chasanah, Sri Istiyarti Uswatun
Jambura Journal of Mathematics Vol 6, No 1: February 2024
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jjom.v6i1.22491

Abstract

This article implements the thinning process algorithm, which has been generalized for estimators of compound periodic Poisson processes. The use of generalizations in the algorithm has been prepared with a linear trend in the periodic elements. This research aims to discuss estimators of the variance function. The method used in this research is the simulation method. Simulation results using a generalized algorithm thinning process show that in the case of a limited observation time interval, some estimators are good enough to approach the actual value. As the value of n increases, the simulated value of the estimator moves towards the predicted value. This is following the lemmas, theorems, and consequences that have been discussed. It was also found that several estimators were quite slow. This results in the movement of the bias, variance, and MSE values of the estimators being slow, even though they are moving towards 0. So that further modifications can be made to the model being studied.
Co-Authors Aditiyo Hermawan Agung Sudrajad Agusutrisno Agusutrisno Agusyarif Rezka Nuha Alam, Tubagus Bakhrul Alfian Firmansyah Alhamidi, A. Ali Arina, Faula Asep Rahmatullah Aswata Aswata Aswata Aswata Aswata Wisnuadji Atia Sonda Azhar, Fawwaz Nur Baehaki, Ahmad Bagaskara, Rafli Priyantama Ramadhan Bagaskara, Rafly Priyantama Ramadhan Baskoro Adi Hermawan Budiaji, Weksi Budiaji, Weksi Bukhari, Ahmad Caturwati , Ni Ketut Caturwati, Ni Ketut Chasanah, Sri Istiyarti Uswatun Dedy Triawan Suprayogi Delano, M Fabian Reinhard Dhimas Satria Dwi Isyana Achmad Dwinanto Dwinanto Dwinanto, Dwinanto Endang Supriyati Erny Listijorini Erwin Erwin, Erwin Erwin, Erwin Erwin, Erwin Fadwah Maghfurah Faiz, Syukron Faizah, Nabila Fajri Ikhsan Fajri Ikhsan Fajri Ikhsan Fathmi, Nur Fajria Amalia Fitroh Adilla Hadi Wahyudi Hanif Fauzan Nadif Haryadi Haryadi Haryadi Haryadi Haryadi Haryadi Haryadi, Haryadi Haryadi, Haryadi Hendra, Hendra Herayati, Herayati Himmatul Mursyidah Huda, Mifathul I Wayan Mangku Ikhsan Fajri, Ikhsan Ikhsan, Aulia Imron Rosyadi Imron Rosyadi Imron Rosyadi Irfani Azis Jannah, Miftahul Jannah, Miftahul Jannah, Miftahul Jannah, Miftahul Kanani, Nufus Kevin Dion Valen Boy La Ode Nashar Lestari, Rini Dwi Listijorini , Erny Listijorini, Erny Listijorini, Erny Lusiani, Rina Lusiani, Rina Lusiani, Rina Maharani, Siti Destiana Mahuda, Isnaini Majahar Ali, Majid Khan Manik, Heni Novyani Marvel, Marchello Megasari, Anggita Mekro Permana Pinem Miftahul Huda Miftahul Jannah Miftahul Jannah Muhamad Syazali Muhammad Reza Ghifari Muhtar Muhtar Mukhtar, Mukhtar Mulyati, Sri Mursyidah, Himmatul Mu’jizatin Fadiana Ni Ketut Caturwati Ni Ketut Caturwati, Ni Ketut Nina Valentika Nina Valentika Notonegoro, Hamdan Akbar Notonegoro, Hamdan Akbar Novita Ana Anggraini Nugraha, Kurnia Nugraha, Kurnia Nurhamida, Nurhamida Nurlaila, Sinta Oktarisa, Yuvita Oktaviani, Risma Pertiwi, Dinda Dwi Anugrah Pinem, Mekro Permana Pinem, Mekro Permana Pramujad, Adam Proni, Raffles Putra Putri, Elysia Tanya Qolbi, Fatimah Nurul Rahel, Gabe Nur Rahman, Gusti Arviana Rahmawati, Septi Dwi Rani Septiani Sukandar Rizqi Fauzi Robby Zidny Rofikoh, Siti Nayatu Rosyadi , Imron Saefuloh, Iman Salamah, Khadijah Barorotus Salamatun Asakdiyah Salsabila, Adinda Kanza Septiani, Melti Setiawan, Ipick Shofiatul Ula Shofiatul Ula Sholihin, Miftahus Shulhany M, Ahmad Sidik Susilo Siti Na&#039;imah Slamet Wiyono Sri Istiyarti Uswatun Chasanah Sri Istiyarti Uswatun Chasanah Sri Istiyarti Uswatun Chasanah Sri Sukmawati Sri Sukmawati Sudiani, Rizka Falah Sudrajad, Agung Sukamto, Dwinanto Sukandar, Rani Septiani Sukardi Sukardi Sukarna, Royan Habibie Sunengsih, Neneng Suprayogi, Dedy Triawan Susilo, Sidik Susilo, Sidik Tri Listyorini Ula, Shofiatul Ula, Shofiatul Ula, Shofiatul Ula, Shofiatul Ummul Mughfiroh Usfita Kiftiyani Valentika, Nina Vivi Iswanti Nursyirwan Warli Warli Wicaksono, Agung Satrio WICAKSONO, AGUNG SATRIO Wijaya, Ferdian Bangkit Wildan Firdaus Wiyono , Slamet Wiyono, Slamet Yazid Rukmayadi Yazid Rukmayadi Yolla Sukma Handayani Yulianti, Amalia Dwi Yulianti, Devi Yuly Peristiowati Yustinus Purwamargapratala Yusuf , Yusvardi Yusuf, Yusvardi Yusuf, Yusvardi Yusvardi Yusuf Zaidan, Athallah Zunan Setiawan