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All Journal EKSAKTA: Journal of Sciences and Data Analysis Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Jurnal Karya Pendidikan Matematika Jurnal Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya (Jurnal MSA) Register: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknologi Sistem Informasi Jurnal Fourier Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Seminar Nasional Variansi (Venue Artikulasi-Riset, Inovasi, Resonansi-Teori, dan Aplikasi Statistika) BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JITK (Jurnal Ilmu Pengetahuan dan Komputer) Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science (UJMC) JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) J Statistika : Jurnal Ilmiah Teori Dan Aplikasi Statistika Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan dan Pembelajaran B-Dent, Jurnal Kedokteran Gigi Universitas Baiturrahmah EIGEN MATHEMATICS JOURNAL Variance : Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Jurnal Saintika Unpam : Jurnal Sains dan Matematika Unpam Square : Journal of Mathematics and Mathematics Education Community Development Journal: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Majalah Ilmiah Matematika dan Statistika (MIMS) Soeropati: Journal of Community Service Journal of Intelligent Computing and Health Informatics (JICHI) JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS LOSARI: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat JURNAL INOVASI DAN PENGABDIAN MASYARAKAT INDONESIA Tepis Wiring : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Journal Focus Action of Research Mathematic (Factor M) Jurnal Statistika dan Komputasi (STATKOM) Journal of Data Insights Jurnal Statistika dan Sains Data Prosiding Seminar Nasional Unimus Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Jurnal Statistika Industri dan Komputasi Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) Emerging Statistics and Data Science Journal Amalgamasi: Journal of Mathematics and Applications Data Science Insights RAGAM: Journal of Statistics and Its Application

M. Al Haris

Department Of Statistics, Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang, Semarang, Indonesia

Author-ID : 2706832

Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Dentistry Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Library & Information Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Nursing Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Peramalan Harga Emas Antam Menggunakan Metode Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heterokedasticity (GARCH) Amri, Ihsan Fathoni; Astuti, Sofi Anggi; Sulistiya, Indah; Suherdi, Andri; Haris, M.Al
UJMC (Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science) Vol 10 No 1 (2024): Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Sciences Unisda Lamongan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52166/ujmc.v10i1.4679

ANTAM gold is a long-term inflation-resistant investment instrument with a low-risk profile. Socio-economic conditions greatly influence gold price fluctuations, so gold price forecasting is very important for investors to understand the dynamic of changes in gold price. This study proposes the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) methods to model the forecasting of gold price fluctuations. The data used is ANTAM’s daily gold price data for the period June 2018 – June 2023. The results show that by using the best ARIMA (0,1,1) GARCH (2,1) model, the gold price forecasting results are in the price range of Rp 947.100.

Klasifikasi Dataset Diabetes menggunakan Algoritma K-Nearest Neighbors Fitri Diana Musa; M. Al Haris; Dannu Purwanto; Saeful Amri; Alwan Fadlurohman; Ariska Fitriyana Ningrum
Journal of Data Insights Vol 2 No 1 (2024): Journal of Data Insights
Publisher : Department of Sains Data UNIMUS Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26714/jodi.v2i1.201

Data mining merupakan suatu metode yang baik untuk menangani data skala besar. Performasi menjadi penting dalam metode data mining. Salah satu metode yang memiliki performasi terbaik adalah K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN). Artikel ini membahas terkait performasi K-NN. Data yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah Diabetes. Data dibagi menjadi 80% data trainingdan 20% data testing. Dengan menggunakan 11 tetangga terdekat, model menghasilkan akurasi sebesar 0.765625. Angka ini mencerminkan kinerja yang baik. Metrik kritis termasuk akurasi sebesar 0.77, presisi sebesar 0.80, dan recall sebesar 0.85. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa model KNN memiliki potensi untuk mengklasifikasikan pasien diabetes dengan akurasi yang baik.

Analisis risiko pada Saham PT. Unilever Indonesia dengan metode expected shortfall berdasarkan model GBM with jump diffusion Utami, Rossy Prima Nada; Haris, M. Al; Wasono, Rochdi
Majalah Ilmiah Matematika dan Statistika Vol. 23 No. 2 (2023): Majalah Ilmiah Matematika dan Statistika
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Jember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.19184/mims.v23i2.38459

Stock investment activities had a high level of profit and a high level of risk as well. The risk could be known from fluctuations in stock price data on stock returns. Fluctuations in stock price data on stock returns in each period could not be controlled, so predicting stock prices through returns was relatively difficult to do. The Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) with Jump Diffusion model was proposed because it was able to capture fluctuations in stock return value data. The GBM with Jump Diffusion model was used when the data has extreme data or jumps that did not meet the assumption of normality, for example stock price data. This research was conducted to calculate the estimated risk of predicting the value of stock returns at PT Unilever Indonesia (UNVR) data for the period January 4, 2021, to January 27, 2023. Based on the results of the analysis, the estimated investment risk in UNVR stocks using the Expected Shortfall method showed that at a confidence level of 95% was generated a risk value of 0.05229, at 90% confidence level resulted in a risk value of 0.04436, at 85% confidence level resulted in a risk value of 0.03747 and 80% confidence level resulted in a risk value of 0.03645. So it could be said that the higher the level of trust, the higher the level of risk.Keywords: GBM, jump diffusion, PT Unilever Indonesia, expected shortfallMSC2020: 62P05, 91G70

Peramalan Harga Emas Menggunakan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Chen dalam Investasi untuk Meminimalisir Risko Sofiyanti , Elvia Nanda; Ulinuha, Samikoh; Okiyanto, Rizal; Haris, M. Al; Wasono, Rochdi
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 7 No. 1 (2024): Volume 07 Nomor 01 (April 2024)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v7i1.1955

Peran emas yang nilainya diakui secara luas diseluruh dunia menyebabkan minat para investor untuk berinvestasi lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan investasi lainnya. Informasi yang signifikan mengenai harga emas dapat digunakan sebagai prediktor yang penting untuk memperkirakan pergerakan harga emas dimasa mendatang. Risiko yang umum dalam investasi emas adalah berfluktuasinya harga disetiap periode/satuan waktu yang menyulitkan bagi investor untuk menduga arah pergerakan harga emas. Agar dapat mencapai keuntungan sesuai dengan rencana yang dibuat investor perlu menggunakan teknik peramalan yang akurat, salah satunya dengan metode Fuzzy time series dengan algoritma Chen. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa penerapan metode Fuzzy time series yang dikembangkan oleh Chen menghasilkan tingkat kesalahan berdasarkan nilai MAPE sebesar 3.92% atau dengan kata lain tingkat akurasinya sangat baik. Hasil prediksi harga emas pada 1 Juli 2023 menghasilkan nilai ramalan sebesar 1907.36 USD.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v7i1.1955

Forecasting Hotel Occupancy Rates in Bali Province using the SARIMAX Method with Tourist Data as an Exogenous Variable Ihsan Fathoni Amri; Arya, Abimanyu; Yolan Triky; Kaia Raissa Akmalia; Abdul Ghufron; M. Al Haris
EKSAKTA: Journal of Sciences and Data Analysis VOLUME 5, ISSUE 2, October 2024
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/EKSAKTA.vol5.iss2.art2

Tourism is a crucial economic sector in Bali, Indonesia. Sustainable tourism management requires an understanding of the dynamics between tourist numbers and hotel occupancy levels. This study uses the SARIMAX (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) method to estimate between the two indicators and reveals a positive correlation between the two indicators. The SARIMAX model effectively captures seasonal patterns and external factors, providing accurate forecasts and supporting tourism management in Bali. Monthly data from 2010 to 2023 were analyzed. Accurate estimates can help tourism stakeholders in formulating appropriate management strategies to optimize the tourism sector. Implementing the right strategy can help ensure the preservation of the local environment and culture, as well as long-term economic benefits for Bali. From the data we use the SARIMAX (6,1,0) (1,1,0)12 model with an AIC value of 1920.553 and a MAPE value of 27%.

Estimasi Risiko Pada Saham PT. Gojek Tokopedia Tbk dan Expected Shortfall Menggunakan ARIMA-GARCH Model Amri, Ihsan Fathoni; Puspitasari, Linda; Priambodo, Danu; Azzahrani, Rahma Dewi; Haris, M. Al
Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics Vol 5, No 2 (2024): Jambura Journal of Probability and Statistics
Publisher : Department of Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/jjps.v5i2.22552

Evaluation of losses is very important when investing in stocks where an approach is needed to take into account risk, the approaches that can be used are Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. The purpose of this research is to estimate the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of PT. Gojek Tokopedia Tbk uses the time series model methodology. One year daily closing price of PT. Gojek Tokopedia Tbk will be used as a source of research data. During the time series modeling process, the ARIMA model is intended as an average model and the GARCH model for model volatility, both of which are used to predict stock movements. The average value and variance models are then intended to calculate the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of the stocks used, respectively. The results obtained for the VaR value were 0.088911 and the ES value was 0.122084. This shows that the ES method is superior in considering the risk of stock investment that has been analyzed.

Estimasi Value at Risk Saham Sub-Sektor Perbankan dengan Pendekatan Copula Ali-Mikhail-Haq Wulandari, Ayu; Haris, M. Al; Utami, Tiani Wahyu
Prosiding Seminar Nasional Unimus Vol 7 (2024): Transformasi Teknologi Menuju Indonesia Sehat dan Pencapaian Sustainable Development G
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang

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Di era modern, investasi telah menjadi instrumen penting dalam kehidupan masyarakat. Saham di subsektorperbankan menjadi pilihan populer karena pertumbuhannya yang pesat dan kapitalisasi pasar yang besar.Namun, risiko tetap menjadi faktor utama yang harus dipertimbangkan, karena fluktuasi pasar dan kondisiekonomi dapat berdampak negatif pada investasi. Value at Risk (VaR) adalah metode umum untukmengukur risiko investasi, tetapi VaR memiliki keterbatasan karena hanya berlaku jika data berdistribusinormal. Untuk mengatasi keterbatasan ini, copula hadir sebagai alternatif yang tidak mengasumsikannormalitas data dan mampu menangani distribusi gabungan variabel dengan lebih fleksibel. Ada beberapajenis copula yang sering digunakan, termasuk copula dari keluarga Archimedean seperti Copula Frank,Copula Gumbel, dan Copula Ali-Mikhail-Haq. Di antara jenis-jenis copula tersebut, Copula Ali-MikhailHaqadalah yang paling unggul karena kemampuannya dalam menggambarkan dependensi negatif danpositif antar variabel serta menangani data dengan struktur dependensi yang kompleks dalam analisis risikoinvestasi. Penelitian ini berfokus pada penerapan Copula Ali-Mikhail-Haq pada data harga penutupansaham PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) dan PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) untuk periode 25Januari 2022 hingga 10 Mei 2023. Copula Ali-Mikhail-Haq dimodelkan menggunakan korelasi RhoSpearman, dengan nilai korelasi ? = 0,4532 dan parameter ? = 0,499991, yang kemudian digunakandalam estimasi VaR. Hasil estimasi VaR menunjukkan nilai risiko pada tingkat kepercayaan 90%, 95%,dan 99% selama periode 80 hari masing-masing sebesar -0,028, -0,038, dan -0,057. Hasil ini menunjukkankerugian yang mungkin dialami investor jika menginvestasikan dana di BBCA dan BBNI. Kata Kunci: Copula Ali-Mikhail-Haq, Investasi, Risiko, Sektor Perbankan, Value at Risk (VaR) Abstract

Pelatihan Pertanian Modern untuk Meningkatkan Regenerasi Petani Muda di Desa Sidorejo Demak Fadillah, Muhammad Reza; Fauzi, Fatkhurokhman; Haris, M. Al; Multiyaningrum, Riska; Pandiriyan, Muhammad Tegar; Amrullah, Setiawan; Putri, Melfia Verahma; Nur, Rachmat Kahfiwan; Ramadhan, Abimanyu Arya; Khikman, Muhammad Alvaro; Widiyanti, Karin Dita; Watur, Annisa Cahyaningrum; Fabiola, Gwenda; Syaharani, Nabbila Dyah; Putra, Septian Malik; Ninu, Maria Febronia; Barlian, Seftia Amelia Rizki
Prosiding Seminar Nasional Unimus Vol 7 (2024): Transformasi Teknologi Menuju Indonesia Sehat dan Pencapaian Sustainable Development G
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang

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Desa Sidorejo, Kecamatan Karangawen, Kabupaten Demak, merupakan daerah agraris dengan mayoritaspenduduk bermata pencaharian sebagai petani. Dalam upaya meningkatkan regenerasi petani muda danmemperkenalkan teknologi pertanian modern, Tim Pengabdian Himpunan Mahasiswa StatistikaUniversitas Muhammadiyah Semarang melaksanakan pelatihan penggunaan alat transplanter dan powerthresher. Kegiatan ini diawali dengan koordinasi bersama pemerintah desa dan Dinas Pertanian setempat,diikuti dengan pembuatan materi pelatihan yang divalidasi oleh Balai Penyuluhan Pertanian. Sebanyak 20petani muda berusia 15 hingga 35 tahun dilibatkan dalam pelatihan ini. Hasil evaluasi menunjukkanpeningkatan signifikan dalam pengetahuan dan keterampilan peserta, meskipun tantangan keberlanjutanprogram tetap perlu diperhatikan. Pelatihan ini diharapkan dapat mendorong pertanian berkelanjutan dankesejahteraan ekonomi masyarakat. Kata Kunci : Pemberdayaan Masyarakat, Pertanian Modern, Regenerasi Petani Muda, Transplanter, PowerThresher.

Pengelompokkan Wilayah Banjir di Jawa Tengah untuk Mitigasi Banjir Menggunakan Pendekatan K-Medoids Sanmas, Safril Ahmadi; Nurmalita, Rahma; Sulistiyani, Dwi; Haris, M. Al
Jurnal Statistika dan Komputasi Vol. 3 No. 2 (2024): Jurnal Statistika dan Komputasi
Publisher : Universitas Nahdlatul Ulama Sunan Giri

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32665/statkom.v3i2.3223

Background: Flooding is a natural event that can occur at any time, often resulting in fatalities and significant material losses. Mapping flood zones in Central Java based on flood occurrences is crucial for optimizing disaster management. Clustering approaches are highly relevant and potential methods for tackling flood mitigation challenges in Central Java. Objective: To map flood zoning in Central Java using the optimal K-Medoids method based on the Silhouette Coefficient. Methods: This study uses the K-Medoids method for Clustering analysis because it is more resistant to outliers. Unlike K-Means, K-Medoids selects the medoid as the cluster center, making it more stable against extreme values. The data used was obtained from the Dinas PUSDATARU of Central Java Province regarding flood events in the region from October 1, 2022, to March 2023. Results: The K-Medoids method with k=2 produced the highest Silhouette Coefficient of 0.83748, Clustering 34 districts/cities with low flood occurrences and 1 district/city with high flood occurrences. This model evaluation supports the planning of disaster mitigation policies that focus more on flood-prone areas. Conclusion: There are two groups of districts/cities based on flood occurrence levels. The high Silhouette Coefficient value indicates a good cluster structure.

Co-Authors Abdul Ghufron Abidah, Khansa Ni'mal Abimanyu Arya Ramadhan Ach Ridoi Alambara Adhwaningrum, Arullah Salsabila Agata Dwi Putri Putri Agi Khoerunnisa Ahmad Jundi Ismail AHMADI Ainurrafiq Dawam Ainurrofiah, Safira Al Aghni Naufalia Albertus Dion Sarah Ali Imron Ali Imron Alia Permata Alwan Fadlurohman Alya Febriyani Amalia Jihan Syafiqoh Amin Samiasih Amri, Saeful Amrullah, Ahmad Amrullah, Setiawan Anggoro, Vernanda Kresna Anis Priyanti Anne Mutiara Wardani Ardana Setiawan, Deftha Ariska Fitriyana Ningrum Arya Praditya Arya, Abimanyu Asriyanti Sawiah Adam Astuti, Sofi Anggi Asyfani, Yusrisma Aulia Dewi Gustiarni Aulia Fadhli Boer Ayesha Nayla Salsadella Ayomi, Nun Maulida Suci Ayu Wulandari Ayuda Nur Sukmawati Azzahrani, Rahma Dewi Bahaudin, Muhammad Barlian, Seftia Amelia Rizki Bunga Ayuningrum Choirudin, Mochamad Fahmi Choirunnisa Hasna Nisa Cika Awani Ayuwida Dannu Purwanto danu priambodo Dea Zahra Khairunnisa Devina Nadifa Nur Aulia Diani, Nandini Lova Dimar Pangestika Sari Dwi Purnomo Putro Dzeaulfath, Muhammad Eko Andy Purnomo Elfina Latifah Safira Eny Winaryati Eny Winaryati Ermawati, Asti Erna Julia Nanga Evida Oktaviana Fabiola, Gwenda Fadhilah Azzahra Fadillah, Muhammad Reza Faninda Aidina Fitri Fathir Naufal Hasan Fatkhurrokhman Fauzi Fauzi, Fatkhurokhman Fazia Risnita Widiyana Febrianti, Fatika Lovina Febryana Dilla Setyaningrum Firdatul Fahria Firdaus, Falah Tinton Firochul Masichah Fisabilillah, Muh. Irodat Fitri Anjani Fitri Diana Musa Fitria Fatichatul Hidayah Gautama, Rahmad Putra Hafiza Abas Haris, M Al Haris, M. Al Havinka Angel Salsabilla Havinka Angel Salsabilla Heppy Nur Asavia Ginasputri Heppy Nur Asavia Ginasputri Herculianus Rowa Dawi Hidayat, Muhamad Arif Hilma Hanna Mahanna Haqq Himmaturrohmah, Laily Husna, Rizqa El Iffah Norma Hidayati Ihsan Fathoni Ihsan Fathoni Amri Ikhwanudin, Muhamad Ilham Khairul Anam Imelya Susianti Inayah Pangestu, Eka Indah Fitriyani Indah Manfaati Nur Indah Manfaati Nur Indriani, Anita Retno Irawan, Alfian Chandra Isnaini Maulida Iva Aurellia Khalif Jesicha Arsusma Kaia Raissa Akmalia Kaia Raissa Akmalia Kamilah Citra Chumairoh Kamilah Citra Khumairoh Khansa' Ni'mal 'Abidah Khikman, Muhammad Alvaro Khoirul Huda Kinanta, Ailsha Syafa Latisa Alifa Maura Lea Angelina Lein, Raymond Bolly Linda Puspitasari Lydia Nur Sa'adah Lydia Nur Sa'adah Lydia Nur Sa'adah Mandala Adikara Sencoko Marsela Ayu Irdiana Masudah, Nurhidayatul Miftakhiyah Fazza Baita Miftakhul Haris Miftakhurizki Mochamad Hasyim Mualim Tahari Mufidatul Ulya Muhammad Alvaro Khikman Muhammad Bahaudin Muhammad Hali Mukron Muhammad Najwan Kamil Muhammad Rifqy Ardiansyah Muhammad Saifuddin Nur Multiyaningrum, Riska Nadia Khoirunnafisa Salma Nandini Lova Diani Nasyiatul Izzah Nikmah Handayani Ninu, Maria Febronia Nufita Nurohmah Nugroho, Muhammad Dimas Alfian Nur Arifah, Miftah Nurfuad, Khilmi Nurhidajah Nurmalita, Rahma Nurmawati Ainun Hidayana Okiyanto, Rizal Pandiriyan, Muhammad Tegar Prastiwi, Harvina Sindy Prastyo, Ikwan Pratama, Rifin Fadilla Pratama, Rizky Adi Priambodo, Danu Prissy Nusaiba Yulisa Prizka Rismawati Arum Purnama, Estyaningsi Puspitasari, Linda Putra, Septian Malik Putri Wahyu Muharamah Putri, Melfia Verahma R.A Qonita Syalsabilla Handayani RA. Qonita Syalsabilla Handayani Rahma Nurmalita Rahma Safira Raka Nurhaq Mulya Hartanto Ramadhan, Abimanyu Arya Ramadhan, Wulan Nur Rangga Sa'adillah SAP Rendi Andika Putra Revika Inta Nur Kholifah Ridwanulhaq, Alfina Fauziah Riska Multiyaningrum Riska Multiyaningrum Riska Multiyaningrum Rochdi Wasono Rochdi Wasono Rochdi Wasono Ryan Mahardika Saeful Amri Saeful Amri Salmah Salmah Salsabila Dhea Sintya Salsabila Rahma Anisa Salwa Salsabila, Galuh Sam'an, Muhammad Sanmas, Safril Ahmadi Saputri, Atika Dwi Sari, Selvi Ana Windia Septi Winda Utami Septia, Siti Fajar Sesotyaning Harum Prabuningrat Shinta Amaria Sidqi, Isnaeni Miftahul Siswahyudianto Siti Hamidah Ardhy Siti Nurhalisa siti wulandari Suci Izzati Suci Laeliyah Suci Mega Puji Lestari Suherdi, Andri Sulistiya, Indah Sulistiyani, Dwi Sunday Emmanuel Fadugba Supriadin Supriadin Supriadin Supriadin Syafina Amira Firdaus Syaharani, Nabbila Dyah Tiani Wahyu Utami Tresiani Yunitasari Tri zahrotun Wahyuningsih Ulinuha, Samikoh Utami, Rossy Prima Nada Utiningtyas, Almas Rizki Velia Arni Widyasari Wahid, Siti Nurasriyanti Wahyuningsih, Andria Watur, Annisa Cahyaningrum Widiyanti, Karin Dita Wulan Sari Wulan Sari, Wulan Yan Nazala Bisoumi Yolan Triky Yulia Nur Kumala Yulianita, Tanti

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