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PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN DENGAN METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE WITH EXOGENOUS INPUT (ARIMAX) Suryani, Andika Resti; Sugiman, Sugiman; Hendikawati, Putriaji
Unnes Journal of Mathematics Vol 7 No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/ujm.v7i1.27386

Abstract

Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengetahui model ARIMAX terbaik dan hasil peramalan curah hujan menggunakan model terbaik. Berdasarkan hasil analisis diperoleh model ARIMAX terbaik adalah model dan diperoleh hasil peramalan curah Bulan Januari 2015 sebesar 384,25mm, Bulan Februari 208,04mm, Bulan Maret 233,94mm, Bulan April 214,14mm, Bulan Mei 183,79mm, Bulan Juni 169,18mm, Bulan Juli 123,49mm, Bulan Agustus 98,85mm, Bulan September 106,09mm, Bulan Oktober 153,04mm, Bulan November 308,52mm dan Bulan Desember 280,45mm. Hasil peramalan curah hujan menunjukkan pola yang sama dengan data yang sebenarnya dan diperoleh nilai eror sMAPE sebesar 1,045. Hal ini dapat diartikan bahwa metode ARIMAX dapat digunakan untuk melakukan peramalan curah hujan dengan SST El-Nino 3.4 sebagai variabel eksogen. The purpose of the study is to find out the best ARIMAX models and forecasting rainfall usingthe best model. Based on the results analysis obtained the best ARIMAX model is model and obtained forecasting rainfall in January 2015 amounted to 384,25mm; February 208,04mm; March 233,94mm; April 214,14mm; May 183,79mm; June 169,18mm; July 123,49mm; August 98,85mm; September 106,09mm; October 153,04mm; November 308,52mm; and December 280,45mm. Forecasting rainfall data show the same pattern with the actual data and obtained error sMAPE values 1.045. This may imply that ARIMAX method can be used for forecasting rainfall with the El-Nino 3.4 SST as exogenous.
PEMODELAN FUNGSI TRANSFER UNTUK MERAMALKAN TINGKAT INFLASI INDONESIA Paradita, Evelyn; Agoestanto, Arief; Hendikawati, Putriaji
Unnes Journal of Mathematics Vol 7 No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/ujm.v7i1.27387

Abstract

Analisis fungsi transfer merupakan salah satu model deret berkala yang menggabungkan pendekatan kausal dan runtun waktu. Tujuan penelitian ini yaitu menganalisis model fungsi transfer sehingga dihasilkan model terbaik untuk meramalkan tingkat inflasi Indonesia selama bulan November 2016 sampai Oktober 2017. Data yang digunakan adalah data bulanan pada Tingkat Inflasi Indonesia dan Indeks Harga Konsumen periode Januari 2005 sampai dengan Oktober 2016 yang diperoleh dari website Badan Pusat Statistika dan Bank Indonesia diperoleh model terbaik yang digunakan untuk data tingkat inflasi Indonesia untuk periode berikutnya dengan berbantuan program software SAS. Berdasarkan analisis fungsi transfer diperoleh bahwa model terbaik fungsi transfer yang digunakan dengan nilai orde b = 8, r = 0, s = 1 dan deret noise dengan nilai p = 1, q = 1. Hasil ramalan untuk bulan November 2016 sampai Oktober 2017 menunjukan bahwa nilai ramalan masih berada pada ambang batas 95% confident interval sehingga model masih dapat digunakan untuk peramalan. Analysis of the transfer function is one of a regular series model that incorporates a causal and time series. The main purpose of this research is to analyze the transfer function model that produced the best model to forecast inflation in Indonesia during the month of November 2016 until October 2017, in order to obtain the best model that is used for data Indonesian inflation rate for the next period withaided by software program SAS. Based on the transfer function analysis showed that the best model transfer function which is used with the value of the order of b = 8, r = 0, s = 1 and row noise with p = 1, q = 1. The result forecast for the months of November 2016 through October 2017 showed that value forecast is still at the threshold of 95% confident interval so that the model can still be used for forecasting.
TIME SERIES MODELLING OF STOCK PRICE BY MODWT-ARIMA METHOD 'Aina, Maula Qorri; Hendikawati, Putriaji; Walid, Walid
Unnes Journal of Mathematics Vol 8 No 2 (2019)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/ujm.v8i2.30352

Abstract

MODWT-ARIMA is a time series modeling that combines the MODWT process and the ARIMA process. The MODWT process is used as pre-processing data while the ARIMA process as a time series modeling for data from MODWT decomposition. This study aims to show that time series modeling with a combined MODWT-ARIMA process provides more accurate forecast result compared to the ARIMA model. The modeled data is time series of daily stock price BBRI.JK started from January 2, 2015 to December 31, 2018. Accuracy measurement of the forecasting result is based on the RMSE value. The result is the MODWT-ARIMA model has a RMSE value which is smaller than the ARIMA model with RMSE , while the RMSE forecast results for 43 future periods is which is also smaller than the ARIMA forecast RMSE, . The diagnostic checking results if the ARIMA model for MODWT decompotition data, namely D1, D2, D3, and S3, indicate that the residual model is not white noise, while the ARIMA model for the time period of daily stock prices has white noise residuals. Theoritically, a model that has no white noise’s residual is considered to be less able to describe the properties of the observed data and further residual modeing should be done. However, this research is sufficient for the ARIMA model and it can be shown that the MODWT-ARIMA model is more effective for modelling time series that are not stationery compared to the ARIMA model.
PENGEMBANGAN BUKU AJAR STATISTIKA BERBANTUAN TIK DENGAN PENDEKATAN PENILAIAN PORTOFOLIO UNTUK MENINGKATKAN KOMUNIKASI DAN KONEKSI MATEMATIS Hendikawati, Putriaji; Arini, Florentina Yuni
Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan Vol 33, No 2 (2016): October 2016
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/jpp.v33i2.9100

Abstract

This research was development research that aimed to develop and produce a Statistics textbook model that supported with ICT and portfolio based assessment. This book was designed to improve students ability in communication and mathematical connections. There were three stages in this research i.e. define, design, and develop. The textbooks consisted of 10 chapters which each chapter contains introduction, core materials and include examples and exercises. The textbook developed phase begins with the early stages of designed the book (draft 1) which then validated by experts. Revision of draft 1 produced draft 2 which then limited test for readability test book. Furthermore, revision of draft 2 produced textbook draft 3 which simulated on a small sample to produced a valid model textbook. The data were analyzed with descriptive statistics. The analysis showed that the Statistics textbook model that supported with ICT and portfolio based assessment valid and fill up the criteria of practicality.
Application of matrix diagonalization on Markov chain Bidayatul hidayah; Rahayu Budhiyati; Putriaji Hendikawati
Jurnal Sains Dasar Vol 3, No 1 (2014): April 2014
Publisher : Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Universitas Negeri Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (78.36 KB) | DOI: 10.21831/jsd.v3i1.2781

Abstract

Markov chain is a series of events in which the conditional probability upcoming events only depend on the current events and do not depend on the previous occurrence. Transition probabilities at the steady state level (steady state probability) is a transition probability that has reached equilibrium, so that it will not change with time or phase changes that occur. This paper determines the eigenvalue states ​​and diagonalization to determine the steady state. The solution is obtained by peeling definitions and theorems. Key words: matrix, matrix diagonalization, Markov chain
EFFECTS OF CALENDAR VARIATIONS ON THE INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF POTENTIAL STOCKS Putriaji Hendikawati; Subanar Subanar; Abdurakhman Abdurakhman; Tarno Tarno
STATMAT : JURNAL STATISTIKA DAN MATEMATIKA Vol 4, No 1 (2022)
Publisher : Math Program, Math and Science faculty, Pamulang University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32493/sm.v4i1.14921

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This study examines the effect of calendar variations on potential stocks on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Calendar variations are observed in telecommunications, retail, food and cigarettes sub-sectors. The observed calendar variations are divided into two: the holiday effect, namely the effect of the month of Ramadan, the effect of the Eid al-Fitr holiday, and the effect of changes in the month of the Eid holidays; and the trading day effect, namely the effect of the day of the week and month of the year effects. ARIMA and ARIMAX model is used to see the effect of previous return data and the calendar variations on predicting stock returns. Descriptively, there is the effect of calendar variations due to Ramadan and Eid holidays and the influence of Monday and January effect. The existence of calendar variations does not apply equally to all types of stocks and to all observation time periods. The calendar variation tends to vary, does not form a clear pattern, does not consistently affect stock returns on the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is not statistically significant. Based on the analysis, it was found that the Monday effect and January effect are the most common phenomena in the Indonesian stock exchange.
Pemanfaatan Komputer untuk Pengembangan Media Pembelajaran Matematika sebagai Upaya Peningkatan Kompetensi Guru Sekolah Dasar Putriaji Hendikawati; Rahayu Budhiati Veronika; Stevanus Budi Waluya; Kristina Wijayanti
CARADDE: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol. 1 No. 2 (2019): Februari
Publisher : Ilin Institute

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (503.871 KB) | DOI: 10.31960/caradde.v1i2.106

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Matematika adalah salah satu ilmu dasar yang diajarkan sejak sekolah dasar yang menekankan pada pemahaman konsep. Penggunaan media pembelajaran yang tepat adalah salah satu cara untuk menanamkan pemahaman konsep pada siswa. Tujuan kegiatan pengabdian yang dilaksanakan adalah memberikan pengetahuan dan memotivasi para guru Sekolah Dasar YPII Cabang Semarang untuk mengembangkan keterampilan dan kreatifitas dalam membuat media pembelajaran dengan menggunakan teknologi komputer. Metode yang digunakan untuk merealisasikan tujuan adalah dengan pelaksanaan ceramah dan demonstrasi berisi pelatihan dan simulasi, pendampingan dan workshop untuk membantu guru membuat media pembelajaran menggunakan bantuan computer serta pemberian penugasan di akhir kegiatan. Pada akhir kegiatan setiap guru menghasilkan sebuah produk media pembelajaran. Hasil yang diperoleh dari kegiatan ini adalah para guru merasakan manfaat kegiatan, memperoleh pengetahun baru, dapat membuat media pembelajaran sederhana dengan menggunakan bantuan komputer dan merasa tertantang untuk terus mengembangkan kemampuannya untuk memanfaatkan media komputer dalam membuat media pembelajaran
PERSEPSI MAHASISWA TERHADAP SISTEM APLIKASI SIMPKL PADA IMPLEMENTASI KEGIATAN PRAKTEK KERJA LAPANGAN MENGGUNAKAN ANALISIS TAM Putriaji Hendikawati; Nur Hidayati
Jurnal TAM (Technology Acceptance Model) Vol 10, No 2 (2019): Jurnal TAM (Technology Acceptance Model)
Publisher : LPPM STMIK Pringsewu

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (250.377 KB)

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SimPKL adalah sistem aplikasi online yang didesain untuk memfasilitasi mahasiswa yang akan melaksanakan kegiatan Praktik Kerja Lapangan (PKL). Sistem ini dibuat untuk mengorganisir seluruh aktifitas mahasiswa yang terkait dengan kegiatan PKL mulai dari awal proses perencanaan sampai dengan pelaporan PKL. Penelitian ini bertujuan mendeskripsikan persepsi mahasiswa terhadap sistem aplikasi simPKL pada implementasi kegiatan PKL. Sampel dalam penelitian ini adalah 115 mahasiswa nonkependidikan di FMIPA yang sedang dan telah melaksanakan PKL. Data dikumpulkan dengan menggunakan angket dan dianalisis menggunakan Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) dengan mengukur Perceived Ease of Use dan Perceived Usefulness. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pengguna simPKL merasa bahwa sistem simPKL dapat membantu mereka dalam proses PKL, namun kemudahan dan kemanfaatannya belum dirasakan secara maksimal. Hal ini terlihat dari skor persepsi pengguna yang berada dalam kriteria sedang. Selanjutnya perlu dilakukan evaluasi terhadap penggunaan simPKL dan mengkaji kembali beberapa bagian sistem yang memuat alur proses mulai tahap persiapan sampai dengan pelaporan kegiatan agar dapat mendukung pelaksanaan kegiatan PKL lebih baik lagi.
MULTIGRADE TEACHING: UPAYA MENGATASI MASALAH PENDISTRIBUSIAN GURU YANG TIDAK MERATA DI INDONESIA Hendikawati, Putriaji
Lembaran Ilmu Kependidikan Vol 37, No 1 (2008)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/lik.v37i1.516

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One of classic education‘s problem in Indonesia is the teacher distribution is notspread evenly. This problem that happened mainly at isolated area, had emphasizedteacher to teach more than one lesson, moreover to teach more than one class. Thiskind of teaching called multi grade teaching (MGT) or it was known as multi classteaching in Indonesia. The characteristic of this teaching identified when teacherteached two or more different class grade in the same room, also in the same time.MGT can be applied for the several reasons, such as geography position is difficult tobe reached, limition of class room, lack of teacher, small number of student, the absentof teacher, or maybe because of the safety factor and emergency situation that happenlike on evacuation area that impacted by disaster. The development of this modelneeds to be handled careful, starts from curriculum development and also materialdevelopment, therefore advice, examine and deep perfection by education expert stillneed to be done continuously.Kata kunci: multigrade teaching, pendistribusian, guru, tidak merata.
PENDAMPINGAN PENYUSUNAN PROPOSAL PENELITIAN TINDAKAN KELAS BAGI GURU MI ROUDLOTUL HUDA GUNUNGPATI SEMARANG Putriaji Hendikawati; Nuriana Rachmani DN; Bambang Eko Susilo
Jurnal Abdimas Vol 20, No 1 (2016): June 2016
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/abdimas.v20i1.7648

Abstract

Peningkatan mutu pendidikan dapat tercapai dengan baik jika guru dapat mengidentifikasi dengan baik permasalahan yang terjadi di kelasnya untuk kemudian dicarikan jalan penyelesaiannya. Pelaksanaan identifikasi permasalahan dan penyelesaiannya ini dapat dilakukan pada penelitian tindakan kelas. Pendampingan penyusunan proposal penelitian tindakan kelas bagi guru MI Roudlotul Huda Gunungpati Semarang dimaksudkan agar guru dapat mengidentifikasi dengan baik masalah yang terjadi dalam pembelajaran, serta memilih dan melaksanakan strategi penyelesaian masalah yang dihadapi kemudian menyusunnya dalam sebuah proposal penelitian tindakan kelas sehingga peningkatan mutu pendidikan dapat tercapai.
Co-Authors 'Aina, Maula Qorri Abdurakhman Abdurakhman Adisgia, Devintha Rukmandani AGUSTINA, SELY Ahmad Dzulfikar Ambarwati, Ratna Amin Suyitno Anggriningrum, Dwi Prisita Arief Agoestanto Asriani, Elisa Desi Assidiq, Addinul Astuti, Raras Setya Auliya, Amara Sweetya Aviliana, Firna Bambang Eko Susilo Bambang Eko Susilo Bidayatul hidayah Budi Waluya David Mubarok, David Dewi, Heni Lilia Dwijanto Dwijanto, Dwijanto Edy Soedjoko Emi Pujiastuti Farkhan, Feri FAUSTINA, RIZA SILVIA Febrianto, Laeli Sidik Florentina Yuni Arini, Florentina Yuni Frazwanti, Yuni Hapsari, Desy Trya Harwanti, Nur Achmey Selgi hengky tri ikhsanto, hengky tri ikhsanto Hilda, Eufrasia Ismail, Abid Khoirul Isnaeni, Ari Isnaini Rosyida, Isnaini Isnarto Isnarto, Isnarto Juwita, Puspa Karomah, Yuliyanti Kartono, Kartono Khanifah Khanifah Khasanah, Uswatul Khunaeni, Sirilivia Kiswandi, Kiswandi Kristina Wijayanti Kurniana Bektiningsih Larasati, Enggar Niken Latifah, Nur Tsani Lestari, Pinta Dian Mashuri - Mashuri Mashuri Masrukan Masrukan Mohammad Asikin Much Aziz Muslim Muhammad Kharis Nafiul Anam, Nafiul Nino Adhi, Nuriana Rachmani Dewi Nitoviani, Nindy Dwi Niyamae, Ade Noorliza Nofiyah, Noni Nur Hidayati Nur Hidayati Nuriana Rachmani DN Nuriana Rachmani DN, Nuriana Rachmani Nurkaromah Dwidayati, Nurkaromah Nurlazuardini, Novia Nilam Nursiwi Nugraheni, Nursiwi Paradita, Evelyn Prabowo, Ardi Pramesti, Santika Lya Diah Pramesti Pratama, Alfian Adi Pratidina, Inung Pratiwi, Yuninda Diah Purbowo, Gallant Alim Purnawan, Dedy Rahayu Budhiati Veronika Rahayu Budhiyati Rahman, Erik Rina Dwi Setyawati Riza Arifudin Ruliana Ruliana, Ruliana Saefurrochman, Wisatsana Roychan Santika Lya Diah Pramesti Sanusi, Ratna Nur Mustika Saraswati, Andhina Sari, Ratna Novita Scolastika Mariani Setiani, Ida St. Budi Waluya Subanar . Sugiman Sugiman Sukestiyarno Sukestiyarno Sunarmi Sunarmi Supriyono Supriyono Suryani, Andika Resti Tarno Tarno Trimurtini, Trimurtini Ulya, Siti Faiqotul Veronica, Rahayu Budhiati Veronica, Rahayu Budhiati Wahyuningsih, Vebryana Walid Walid Walid, Walid Wardono Wardono Wardono Widayanti, Christina Zaenal Abidin Zaenuri Mastur Zahra, Mega Dea Zoraida, Desti Anisa