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All Journal Wahana Matematika dan Sains Matematika: Jurnal Teori dan Terapan ELKHA : Jurnal Teknik Elektro JURNAL DERIVAT: JURNAL MATEMATIKA DAN PENDIDIKAN MATEMATIKA SITEKIN: Jurnal Sains, Teknologi dan Industri Kubik Jurnal Fourier Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika NUMERICAL (Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika) Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Seminar Nasional Teknologi Informasi Komunikasi dan Industri BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Zeta - Math Journal Math Educa Journal Square : Journal of Mathematics and Mathematics Education InPrime: Indonesian Journal Of Pure And Applied Mathematics Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika KUBIK: Jurnal Publikasi Ilmiah Matematika Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Mathematics and Applications (MAp) Journal Journal of Fundamental Mathematics and Applications (JFMA) Lattice Journal : Journal of Mathematics Education and Applied Indonesian Council of Premier Statistical Science Jurnal Ecotipe (Electronic, Control, Telecommunication, Information, and Power Engineering)
Elfira Safitri
Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau
Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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STABILITY ANALYSIS OF THE SIQR MODEL OF DIPHTHERIA DISEASE SPREAD AND MIGRATION IMPACT Soleh, Mohammad; Nazvira, Mutia; Wartono, Wartono; Safitri, Elfira; Sriningsih, Riry
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 1 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss1pp173-184

Abstract

Diphtheria is an acute disease that affects the upper respiratory tract caused by Corynebacterium diphtheriae, which can also affect the skin, eyes, and other organs. This article analyzes the stability of the SIQR model of diphtheria disease spread in Mandau District by considering the migration factor. The SIQR model is a development of the SIR model by incorporating the quarantine process as an alternative to reduce morbidity. The purpose of this study is to see the effect of migration on the spread of diphtheria disease in Mandau District through mathematical model simulation. We calculated the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points and the basic reproduction number ( ) of the model. Model parameters were obtained using data from BPS Bengkalis Regency and UPTD Puskesmas Mandau. The calculation resulted in one disease-free equilibrium point and one endemic equilibrium point. If < 1, then the disease-free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable, and if > 1, then the endemic equilibrium point is also asymptotically stable. Based on the results of the data analysis, the value of. This value is less than 1, so the equilibrium point obtained is a disease-free and asymptotically stable equilibrium point. This means that the population will be free from diphtheria and the level of migration affects the presence of diphtheria disease in Mandau District.
Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Kejadian Stunting terhadap Balita menggunakan Analisis Regresi Logistik Safitri, Elfira; Basriati, Sri; Mulyani, Septia
Zeta - Math Journal Vol 7 No 2 (2022): November
Publisher : Universitas Islam Madura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31102/zeta.2022.7.2.47-52

Abstract

Stunting is a condition of failure to thrive in toddlers due to chronic malnutrition, resulting in toddlers or children being too short for their age standards. The purpose of the study was to determine the factors that influence the incidence of stunting to toddlers at the Public Health Center Kasih Ibu airtiris, kampar. The method used in this study is the binary logistic regression method. Based on the results of the study indicate that the factors that influence the incidence of stunting in toddlers at Public Health Center Kasih Ibu airtiris, kampar namely the nutritional status of body weight based on age. The binary logistic equation with the resulting logit function is . The value of the determination of the classification of stunting events using binary logistic regression is 83,6%.
Design and Implementation of a Kalman-Bucy Filter for Fault Detection in DC Motor Systems Mursyitah, Dian; Faizal, Ahmad; Safitri, Elfira; Pebriani, Sovi; Alfadri, Ramadhan
ELKHA : Jurnal Teknik Elektro Vol. 17 No.2 October 2025
Publisher : Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Tanjungpura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26418/elkha.v17i2.96853

Abstract

This study presents the design and implementation of a Kalman-Bucy filter for fault detection in DC motor systems, which are widely used in industrial drives and automation. Accurate state estimation is essential for ensuring reliable operation, particularly in the presence of measurement noise and parameter uncertainties. The proposed observer exhibits rapid convergence in speed estimation (less than one second) and strong robustness to measurement noise, achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 24.38 rad/s, closely matching the noise standard deviation (σᵥ = 23.01 rad/s). This close agreement indicates that the Kalman-Bucy filter operates near its theoretical optimal performance under Gaussian noise assumptions. Fault detection is carried out through residual analysis under three fault scenarios: ramp, inverse ramp, and square wave. Each scenario generates distinct residual patterns, providing clear indicators of both gradual and abrupt anomalies. Quantitative evaluation demonstrates high sensitivity (97.0% for ramp and inverse ramp, 94.1% for square), perfect specificity (100%), and a zero false alarm rate across all scenarios. These findings highlight the potential of the Kalman-Bucy filter as a reliable and computationally efficient approach for state estimation and fault indication using data representative of a real DC motor system. The results provide a valuable basis for developing predictive maintenance strategies and improving system reliability. Future work will focus on experimental implementation and validation to confirm its performance under real-world operating conditions.
Model Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Dampak Penerapan PSBB Terhadap Kasus Covid-19 Di Pekanbaru Soleh, Mohammad Soleh; Melvy Utari Permadhi; Wartono; Irma Suryani; Elfira Safitri; Riry Sriningsih
Jurnal Derivat: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 11 No. 1 (2024): Jurnal Derivat (April 2024)
Publisher : Pendidikan Matematika Universitas PGRI Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31316/jderivat.v11i1.4698

Abstract

Covid-19 has become a global pandemic in the 21st century. Various efforts to control its spread have been made. Isolation or regional quarantine is one of the efforts made by almost all countries in the world. Indonesia modified the lockdown by implementing 'Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB)'. Before and during the implementation of PSBB, there have been many pros and cons in the community. By using the SIR model and Euler method, the impact before and after the implementation of PSBB in Pekanbaru city is compared. Based on daily data of Covid-19 cases in Pekanbaru city, it is obtained that the value of the basic reproduction number before and after the implementation of PSBB are  and  respectivel.  This condition confirms that either without or by implementing PSBB, Pekanbaru city will be free from Covid-19. Simulation of Covid-19 cases before and after PSBB graphically also shows a situation that will be free from disease. However, without implementing PSBB, the number of infected will jump drastically after some time even though it will eventually decrease, while by implementing PSBB there is no spike. Thus, the implementation of PSBB can be an alternative to control Covid-19. Keywords: Basic reproduction number, Covid-19, PSBB, SIR model, Euler methods.
Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dalam Memprediksi Jumlah Peserta Pelatihan Masyarakat Sarbaini, Sarbaini; Safitri, Elfira
Lattice Journal : Journal of Mathematics Education and Applied Vol. 2 No. 2 (2022): Desember 2022
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Sjech M. Djamil Djambek Bukittinggi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30983/lattice.v2i2.5937

Abstract

Training of communities around forests is needed to improve the management of non-timber forest products for community empowerment. This training activity is carried out every year, so it is necessary to design forestry training for the community. Therefore, it is required to predict the number of incoming trainees so that the training can be carried out evenly by forestry extension workers. This study aims to determine the application of the Single Exponential Smoothing method in predicting the number of community trainees in 2022. This study used a trial system of testing values using 0.1 to 0.9 and minimized errors by calculating MAE, MSE, and MAPE. Based on the results of the study, it is predicted that the number of community training participants in 2022 using the Single Exponential Smoothing method with  with a minimum MAPE of  with several community training participants 2022 as many as 186 participants.Pelatihan masyarakat sekitar hutan diperlukan sebagai upaya peningkatan pengelolaan hasil hutan non kayu guna pemberdayaan masyarakat. Kegiatan pelatihan ini dilaksanakan setiap tahun, sehingga diperlukan perancangan pelatihan kehutanan bagi masyarakat. Oleh  karena itu, perlu diprediksi jumlah peserta pelatihan yang akan datang agar pelatihan dapat dilaksanakan secara merata oleh penyuluh kehutanan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui penerapan metode Single Exponensial Smoothing dalam memprediksi jumlah peserta pelatihan masyarakat pada tahun 2022. Penelitian ini menggunakan system trial pengujian nilai dengan menggunakan 0,1 sampai dengan 0,9 dan meminimumkan error dengan menghitung MAE, MSE, dan MAPE. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, diprediksi jumlah peserta pelatihan masyarakat tahun 2022 menggunakan metode Single Exponential Smoothing dengan  dengan minimum MAPE sebesar 8,9% dengan jumlah peserta pelatihan masyarakat tahun 2022 sebanyak 186 peserta.
Penyelesaian Metode Round Off dan Metode Cutting Plane dalam Optimalisasi Produksi Anyaman Rotan UD. Kirana Safitri, Elfira; Basriati, Sri; Mexdika, Raja Putra; Soleh, Mohammad
Square : Journal of Mathematics and Mathematics Education Vol. 6 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : UIN Walisongo Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21580/square.2024.6.1.20402

Abstract

UD Kirana is a trading business that produces rattan weaving in Rumbai district which consists of 5 types of products produced, namely guest chairs, terrace chairs, tender chairs, serving hoods and baskets. In the rattan woven production process, UD Kirana cannot predict how many items can be produced each week so that maximum profits have not been achieved.This research aims to find out how goods can be produced every week in order to get maximum profits.The methods used are the Round Off method and the Cutting Plane method. Based on the research result, UD Kirana produced 10 tender chairs, 7 serving hoods and 21 baskets with a profit of Rp. 6.060.000. The Round Off method is more efficient than the Cutting Plane method, this can be seen from the addition of constraints, namely the Round Off method adds two constraints and the Cutting Plane method adds three constraints or gomory constraints.
Application of the Two-Phase Simplex Method and the Two-Phase Quick Simplex Method in Minimizing Raw Material Costs People with Diabetes Mellitus Elfira Safitri; Rizka Yuliani; Sri Basriati; Mohammad Soleh
Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Statistika Vol. 12 No. 1 (2026): JSMS Januari 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24014/jsms.v12i1.37040

Abstract

Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is a long-term metabolic disease or disorder caused by various factors and is characterized by an increase in high blood sugar levels, accompanied by dysfunction in the metabolism of carbohydrates, fats, and proteins as a result of impaired insulin function. Ibnu Sina Hospital Pekanbaru provides treatment to patients suffering from Diabetes Mellitus by applying a type IV diet with normal nutritional status and BMI in the interval of 18 to 25 BMI. In the process of making food, Ibnu Sina Hospital uses raw materials such as rice, fish, tempeh, broccoli and bananas. The purpose of the study is to find out the minimum cost that must be incurred for food raw materials at Ibnu Sina Hospital Pekanbaru for patients with Diabetes Mellitus. The methods used are the two-phase simplex method and   the two-phase quick simplex method. Based on the results of this study, the two-phase simplex method requires 5 iterations, while   the two-phase quick simplex method only requires 1 iteration to obtain optimal results. So that the quick simplex method is more efficient than the two-phase simplex method because it is seen from the number of iterations carried out. In both methods, it was obtained that the minimum production cost of food raw materials for patients with diabetes mellitus was Rp. 9,138.5.
Application of the Holt-Winters Multiplicative Method to Predict Cayenne Pepper Production in Riau Province Elfira Safitri; Isfi Zainul Karimah; Rahmadeni -; Ahmad Faizal
Indonesian Council of Premier Statistical Science Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026): February 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24014/icopss.v5i1.38466

Abstract

Production forecasting in the agricultural sector is an important component in the planning and decision-making process, especially for commodities with high levels of demand such as cayenne pepper. This study aims to predict the amount of cayenne pepper production in Riau Province by applying the Holt-Winters Multiplicative method. The selection of this method is based on its ability to process time series data that has seasonal patterns and trends that change proportionally to the data level. The data used in this study is secondary data sourced from the Riau Province Food, Food Crops, and Horticulture Office for the period from 2022 to 2024. The analysis stage includes data exploration, determination of the initial smoothing value for levels, trends, and seasonality, adjustment of smoothing parameters (α, β, γ), and evaluation of model performance using MAPE, MAD, and MSE error measures. Based on the results of the analysis, it shows that the Holt-Winters Multiplicative model produces a MAPE value of 11%, which indicates that the model has a good level of accuracy. Therefore, this method can be used as a supporting tool in planning the production and distribution of cayenne pepper in Riau Province.
OPTIMALISASI BIAYA PERSEDIAAN BAHAN BAKU BROWNIES MENGGUNAKAN METODE SILVER MEAL DAN MARKOV CHAIN Wirdatun Nisfi; Elfira Safitri; Rahmadeni Rahmadeni; Ahmad Faizal
MAp (Mathematics and Applications) Journal Vol 8, No 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Imam Bonjol Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15548/map.v8i1.12432

Abstract

Mona Cake Shop is one of the cake shops in Rumbio Village, Kampar District, Kampar Regency, Riau Province. Mona Cake Shop is often faced with problems that occur, namely insufficient or excess raw material supplies so that the production process does not run well. This study aims to determine the result of optimizing the cost of brownies raw material inventory using the Silver Meal and Markov Chain methods. The method used is this study are the Silver Meal and Markov Chain methods. The Silver Meal method is one method that can solve a problem optimally and simply. The Markov Chain method can future raw material inventory costs. Based on the of the study using two methods, it was obtained that the processing result using the Silver Meal method were much more optimal than the Markov Chain method. Where the cost of raw material inventory in the Silver Meal method id while in the Markov Chain method it is .So it can be seen the most optimal result are using the Silver Meal method.The purpose of this study is to analyze and optimize the inventory costs of brownie raw materials at Mona Cake Shop located in Rumbio Village, Kampar Regency, Riau Province. The problem often faced by the shop is the imbalance in the amount of raw material inventory, namely the occurrence of shortages or excess inventory which causes increased storage costs and disruptions to the production process. This study uses the Silver Meal method to determine the optimal raw material ordering policy and the Markov Chain method to predict inventory conditions in the coming period. The results show that the total cost of raw material inventory using the Silver Meal method is Rp 56,310,388.65 while the Markov Chain method is Rp 107,566,512.71. Based on these results, it can be concluded that the Silver Meal method is more efficient in minimizing raw material inventory costs than the Markov Chain method at Mona Cake Shop
Rainfall Forecasting in the City of Pekanbaru Using the Exponential Smoothing Method Rahmadeni Rahmadeni; Rifa Desasri; Elfira Safitri
Indonesian Council of Premier Statistical Science Vol. 4 No. 1 (2025): February 2025
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24014/icopss.v4i1.37475

Abstract

 Rainfall is one of the main components in the climate system that has a major influence on various sectors, such as agriculture, transportation, and disaster management. The city of Pekanbaru in Riau Province has tropical climate characteristics with varying levels of rainfall throughout the year. Therefore, a forecasting method is needed that is able to accurately predict rainfall. This study aims to identify the most suitable forecasting model for rainfall data in the region. The two methods used in this study are Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) and Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing (DES). The results of the analysis showed that the SES method provided a higher level of accuracy compared to the DES Holt method, with a MAPE value of 33.37%. Thus, the SES model is considered the best method in predicting rainfall in the city of Pekanbaru.
Co-Authors A Martino Ade Novia Rahma Agustiawan Agus Ahmad Ahmad Faizal Ahmad Faizal Ahmad Faizal Ahmad Faizal Ahmad Faizal Ahmad Faizal Alfadri, Ramadhan Alfaizan Darman Alfitra Martino Amelia Zahara Andini, Chania Tri Anggraini, Resi Ari Pani Desvina Ayu - Octariana Clara Ramadhania Corry Corazon Marzuki Dewi Sartika Dian Mursyitah Elvina Andiani Gamal, M.D.H Habibis Saleh Hasyratul Najmi Hazirah, Azra Irma Suryani Isfi Zainul Karimah Juliesty Huswina Khotimah Khotimah Kisty, Teshi Amelia Hakilla Latifah Hanum Lestari, Winda Ayu M.D.H Gamal Meli Ermanita Melvy Utari Permadhi Mexdika, Raja Putra Mohammad - Soleh Mohammad Soleh Mohammad Soleh Mohammad Soleh Mohammad Soleh Muhammad Rizki muhammad soleh muhammad soleh Mulyani, Septia Mulyono Mulyono Nanda Putri Miefthawati Nazvira, Mutia Nilwan Andiraja Nilwan Andiraja Nilwan Andiraja Nur Azizah Br Barus Nur Ulfa Nuraisyah, Puteri Nurul Izzah Nusantoro, Dinda Kurniyawan Oktavia, Dhea Rizki Pebriani, Sovi Rahma, Adlul Finy Rahmadeni - Rahmadeni Rahmadeni Rahmadeni Rahmadeni Rahmadeni Rahmadeni Rahmadeni Rahmadeni Rahmadeni Rahmadeni Rahmadeni Rahmadeni Rahmawati Rahmi Yatul Husna M Rahmi, Nafia Resi Anggraini Resti Molina Resti Riafani Retno Ayu Puji Lestari Rielsa, Risca Amelya Rifa Desasri Rini Eka Putri Rini Erawati Riry Sriningsih Riska Armeliza Riska Wulandari Rizka Yuliani Rudy Kurniawan Rudy Kurniawan Sarbaini Sarbaini Sarbaini Sarbaini Sari, Kiki Indah She Arssy Yesti Soleh, Mohammad Soleh Spastika, Galuh Mreta Sri Basriati Sri Sukmawati Syafrika Yuliarti Wartono Wartono Wartono Wartono Wazna Ulya Wina Yustari Winda Widiarti Wirdatun Nisfi Yuhandi - - Yulanda, Rahmi Zukrianto, Zukrianto