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Journal : journal of intelligent decision support system idss

Sales forecasting of pet food at oyen petshop using the fuzzy time series–markov chain method Pratama, Agung; Kurniawan, Rakhmat
Journal of Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) Vol 8 No 4 (2025): December: Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS)
Publisher : Institute of Computer Science (IOCS)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35335/idss.v8i4.327

Abstract

Oyen Petshop faces stock management inaccuracies because sales records are still kept manually, while demand patterns are highly fluctuating and difficult to predict, often leading to overstock or stockouts that harm the business. The purpose of this study is to develop a Fuzzy Time Series–Markov Chain (FTS-MC) model to forecast pet food sales at Oyen Petshop and implement it in the form of a website. The research method applies FTS-MC to construct fuzzy intervals, generate FLR/FLRG, calculate transition probabilities, and produce forecasts based on dry-food sales data from April 2024 to March 2025. The results show that the FTS-MC model achieves a MAPE of 8.92%, with forecasted values that follow actual fluctuations and indicate a stable demand trend of 206–224 units for the next seven periods. Black Box Testing confirms that all web-based system functions operate correctly and all test scenarios pass, ensuring the system is ready for operational use. The findings indicate that the system enables more precise stock estimation, supports the establishment of safe reorder limits, and allows procurement decisions to be made faster and more consistently without manual calculations.
Co-Authors Akbar, Muhammad Firdaus Amar, Rizki Andriayani Badaruddin, Sukri Bustomi Rosadi Cahyo, M Rizky Dwi Daulay, Amru Dhany Rahmawan Eka Putra, Ismet Elisabet, Aelfi Elpatsa, Angga Emma Sy. Moeis Fadila, Nurul Fahmi, Saidul Fatimah, , Nur Ferawati Usman Firsilia, Tiya Hayati, Nadiya A. Iman Imanudin Indirahati, Novina Sri Irfandi Irianto, Kartika Dewi Irwati, Dwi Jonatan, Josua Kartika, Nia Kautsar, Muhammad Vajri Al Kristiana kristiana Larasati, Nadila Lentina, Tasya Meir Marlina Widiyanti, Marlina Marpongahtun Marsanda, Ema Andriani Misbahuddin Misbahuddin Muhammad Ichsan Hadjri Muhammad Najib Muhammad Yusuf Mukhhtaruddin munif, Moh abdul Nisma Noka, Isara Abda Nurfadila Nurhandayani, Pina Prayugo, Aniza Salviana Purnamawati, Annida Putra, Mahardhika Putra, Purwanto Rahmaddeni Rahmaddeni Rakhmat Kurniawan R Randhy, Muhammad Ratnawati, Elfrida Robial, Siti Muawanah Rosmaida, Agryani Rumbayan, Rilya Ryan, Naufal Sandi Asmara Santoso, Robi Saputra, Hanif Sari, Elsi Kartika Sarifuddin Sembiring, Helmina Br. Sembiring, Rinawati Setiowati, Reni Diah Sherliana, Sherliana Simona Bustani, Simona sipahutar, Sumarhadi Siregar, Azfar Huzaifah Siregar, Evy I. Solahuddin Nasution Sri Yunita Suci Nirmala, Ni Wayan Puspa Suhendi, Adi Syafrita Ridha Ginting Syahran, Syahran Syarifuddin Syarifuddin Teresia, Salve Tinik Sugiati Ummah, M. Fijar Ishlahul Veny Mandang Vigo, Yosua Luis Vusparingga, Andela Wahidy, Sultan Yadi Ernawadi Yudha, Yusuf H. Yudhistira Adhitya Pratama Yunus, Syawal Budiman