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Samsudin, Samsudin
Universitas Islam Negeri Sumatera Utara
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Journal : Applied Information System and Management

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Bitcoin Price Forecasting Using Random Forest and On‑Chain Data Samsudin, Samsudin; Irawan, Muhammad Dedi; Nasution, Muhammad Irwan Padli; Putri, Raissa Amanda
Applied Information System and Management (AISM) Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Applied Information System and Management (AISM)
Publisher : Depart. of Information Systems, FST, UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/aism.v8i2.46690

Abstract

Bitcoin’s extreme price volatility has long posed challenges for both investors and researchers seeking reliable forecasting models. Conventional financial approaches often fail to capture the highly complex, nonlinear, and fast-moving nature of cryptocurrency markets. To address this gap, this study develops a Bitcoin price prediction model using Random Forest Regression based on on-chain market data. The dataset was obtained from publicly available historical Bitcoin daily trading records spanning more than five years. Key features include opening price, daily high and low ranges, trading volume, and percentage change. The research was carried out in several stages. First, data preprocessing was conducted through normalization, handling of missing values, and feature engineering. Second, model training was performed with Random Forest, including parameter tuning to optimize predictive accuracy. Third, model evaluation employed R² and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as primary performance indicators. Fourth, visualization was implemented using interactive charts to allow users to observe short-term price fluctuations and long-term market patterns. The system development followed an iterative methodology inspired by the Streamlit Framework, which is an open-source Python library that simplifies building interactive web applications for data science and machine learning. This approach provides flexibility, enabling rapid experimentation and adaptation to evolving market conditions. The results show that the proposed model achieves near-perfect R² values (approaching 1.0) with consistently low MAPE, highlighting its reliability. Beyond predictive performance, the framework is designed to be scalable, supporting future integration with deep learning methods such as LSTM and external macroeconomic indicators, thus offering both practical utility for investors and academic contributions to decentralized finance research.
Co-Authors Abdullah Abdullah Abdullah Umar Muzammil Adinda Ayu Mega Pramesti Adinda Priyamita Adinda, Sity Tree Adnan Buyung Nasution Afridayani Afridayani Ahmad Hariandy Harahap Aji Dewo Pangestu Alda Penira Ali Ikhwan Ali Ikhwan Almansah, Dani Alyan Fatwa Alyuda, M Farhan AMALIA, NOVITA Anazra, Davania Andika, Reza Anggika Wardani Aninda Muliani Aninda Muliani anju sitompul Aryati Aryati Asbullah, Jumjumi Asma Alya Najiha Atsil, Rayhan Alpatih Aulia Fitriani Munthe Aulia Pratama Tambunan Ayu Febrianti Adha Ayu Ningsih, Sri Bagus Setiawan Batubara, Ayu Azzahra Beni Frandian Bilbi Huzaimi Mahmuda Dalimunthe, Tursina Juliani Danang Wahyu Wicaksono Dandi Fratama Wardana Dedyka Syahputra Dian El Arafiah Saragih Dian Pratiwi Diana, Dwi Rahmadani Ivan Dini Amanda, Bazlina Disnu Panggabean Dwi Nenda Putri Dwi Saphira Dwi Silviana Elfany Rizqi Syaputri Ella Nurwana Erlina, Fazira Fadiah Nurhani Fadiah Nurhani Fadillah, Muhammad Rizki Fahira Khalisyah Risqullah Faiz Wahyu Perdana Rangkuti Fajrillah, Fajrillah Fara Diva, Anggrayani FATHIYA HASYIFAH SIBARANI Fatimah Ritonga Fauzia Mahyarani Fitrah Al Mubaroq Geubrina Rizka Utami Sinaga Ginting, Natal Gustantia, Dwi Haloho, Melanthon Pardamean Haniyah, Husna Hasibuan, Inneke Nugroho Hasibuan, Siti Aisyah Hikmah Wulandari, Nur Husna, Fauziatun Ichsan, Muhammad Ichsan Ihsan Sarita, Muhammad Ilka Zufria Indra Putra Mahayudi Ismi Hamidah Rasyad Juliati Nasution, Yenni Samri Jumjumi Abullah Juwita Samroiyah Pulungan Laila Nurzanah Liza Octaviana Lubis, Ali Topan Lubis, Nurul Amanda Khairani Lutfil, Muhammad Lutfil Amin Siregar M Arif Rahmat Pasaribu M Fakhriza M. Audi Ikhsan Maharani, Uci Maulana Irsyad, Raihan Maulana, Dimas Krisna Maya Juliana Ritonga Meisarah, Helfina Merliana Putri Hasibuan Mia Nurjannah Miftah Siregar Mohammad Badri Muhamad Alda Muhammad Amsari Lubis Muhammad Arifin Lubis Muhammad Dedi Irawan Muhammad Hendrik Koto Muhammad Hendrik Koto Muhammad Ikhsan Muhammad Khoir Al Alim Manurung Muhammad Rafli Hakim Muhammad Rizky Dermawan Muhammad Syafri Fauzi Muliani Harahap, Aninda Muthmainnah Mutiara Indriani Mutia Dwi Pratika Nasution, Anggi Refachriati Nasution, Muhammad Irwan Padli Nazli Aditra Nurhadijah Nurhadijah Nurhalizah Nurhalizah Nurhidayah Simbolon Nurini Siregar Nursaadah Pane, Elly Supiah Pane, Rizky Hidayat Pasaribu, M Arif Rahmat Poppy Hidayah Pradana, Reza Pradana, Surya Ardi Pratiwi, Yulisa Nanda Prawira, Yudhi Prawira PRIA MITRA PURBA Purba, Rizki Ikhwansyah Purwani, Desy Putra, Muklas Adi Putri Sri Rezeki Rahma Azizah Lubis Rahma Dipa Salsabil Rahmadani, M.A. Annisa Rahman, Fazlur Raissa Amanda Putri Rakha, Riyan Hidayat Rama Sandy Permana Ramadhani, Vidya Rani Jumiannisa Sinaga Raudhatul Jannah Razvan Serban Reni Yunita Reza Pradana Riri Syafitri Lubis Rivaldi, Rifky Rizal, Yazid Khairul Rohmad Shobirin Roza, Yuda Fakhri Sakinah, Mutiara Samsul Bahri Siagian Sandra Fitrie Saripah Aini Pohan Septiana Dewi Andriana, Septiana Dewi Simbolon, Nurhidayah Siregar, Diana Asmarani Siregar, Saparuddin Sri Astuti Sri Astuti Sri Mulyana Suendri Suendri Suendri Suendri, Suendri Suendri, Suendri Sulistio, Rahmat Syahfitri, Amalia Syahranitazli Syahranitazli Syahranitazli Tamara Putri Tamaulina Tama Tasya Azra Rizkya Umri Tasya Maulariqa Insani Taufik Qurrahman Taufiq Annur Harahap Teguh Kurniawan Triase Triase triase Triase Triase Triase Triase Triase Triase, Triase Ulfa Fadilah Usman, Usman Winda Junarda Wulan Suci Wulandari Wulandari Wulandari, Novika Yani, Sefty Yanti, Asni Rahma Yasmin, Anisa Yudha Sansena Yudhanata, Ridho Dwi Zahra Azura Zahrina, Nadhilah