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Universitas Bina Bangsa
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Journal : JOURNAL OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS RESEARCH (JBE)

 1 
Tertiary Education, Investment, and Labor Force Participation as Determinants of Indonesia’s Economic Growth: Evidence from ARDL Analysis, 1990–2023 Anisa, Aan; Kenedi, Kenedi; Agustini, Anti Wulan
Journal of Business and Economics Research (JBE) Vol 6 No 3 (2025): October 2025
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/jbe.v6i3.8217

Abstract

The relationship between higher education and economic growth has been widely discussed, yet evidence from emerging economies such as Indonesia remains inconclusive, particularly when considering the interplay of education, investment, and labor market dynamics. This study seeks to address this gap by analyzing Indonesia’s economic performance from 1990 to 2023 using annual time-series data sourced from the World Bank. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the analysis reveals that tertiary education enrollment exerts a significant positive contribution to economic expansion (coefficient = 0.0118, p < 0.01), while investment demonstrates a robust growth-enhancing effect (coefficient = 0.3859, p < 0.01). By contrast, labor force participation shows a negative association (coefficient = –0.0164, p < 0.05), reflecting structural inefficiencies in the labor market. In the short horizon, investment delivers immediate and significant benefits (coefficient = 0.4016, p < 0.01), whereas changes in labor force participation appear statistically negligible. The error correction term (–0.4622, p < 0.01) further indicates a moderate pace of adjustment, with nearly 46% of disequilibria resolved annually. These results highlight the need for policies that strengthen higher education quality, sustain a favorable investment climate, and reform labor markets, thereby ensuring that Indonesia moves toward inclusive and sustainable development.
Pengaruh Harga Emas, Suku Bunga dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di Indonesia Budiman, Dedi; Munir Hidayat, Asep; Tejaarief, Billy; Kenedi, Kenedi; Wulan Agustini, Anti
Journal of Business and Economics Research (JBE) Vol 6 No 3 (2025): October 2025
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/jbe.v6i3.8261

Abstract

The main problem in the Indonesian capital market is the high volatility of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), which is often influenced by both external and internal factors, making it difficult for investors to make investment decisions. This uncertainty raises questions about the extent to which macroeconomic variables, particularly gold prices, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate, affect the movement of the JCI. The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) is the primary indicator reflecting the performance of the Indonesian stock market. Its movement is heavily influenced by various macroeconomic variables, including gold prices, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate. Gold serves as a safe-haven asset favored during periods of market instability, while interest rates and exchange rates reflect monetary conditions and domestic purchasing power. This study aims to analyze the effect of gold prices, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate on the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) in Indonesia. The method used is a quantitative approach with quarterly time series data from 2014 to 2024. The analysis was conducted using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with the assistance of EViews 12 software. The estimation results of the ARDL model show that in the short run, gold prices, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate do not have a significant effect on the JCI, as the t-statistic values of each variable are smaller than the t-table at a 5% significance level. However, in the long run, gold prices and the rupiah exchange rate have a significant effect on the JCI with t-statistic values of 2.984417 and 2.634944, respectively, which exceed the t-table. This indicates that movements in gold prices as a safe-haven asset and fluctuations in the exchange rate contribute to JCI dynamics in the long run. Conversely, interest rates show no significant effect in either the short run or the long run. These findings emphasize the importance of considering certain macroeconomic variables in the long run as a basis for investment decision-making in the Indonesian capital market. Therefore, stable and predictable macroeconomic policies are essential to create a healthy investment climate in Indonesia.
Pengaruh Kemiskinan, Pengangguran dan Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia Darsono, Darsono; Munir Hidayat, Asep; Tejaarief, Billy; Kenedi, Kenedi; Wulan Agustini, Anti
Journal of Business and Economics Research (JBE) Vol 6 No 3 (2025): October 2025
Publisher : Forum Kerjasama Pendidikan Tinggi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47065/jbe.v6i3.8262

Abstract

One of the main problems of Indonesia’s economy is the relatively low economic growth, which is often hampered by high levels of poverty, unemployment, and inflation. These conditions pose challenges in maintaining stability while promoting sustainable development. Economic growth is an important indicator in assessing the performance of a country’s development, which is influenced by various macroeconomic factors. This study aims to analyze the effect of poverty, unemployment, and inflation on Indonesia’s economic growth, both in the short run and long run. In addition, this research also identifies the adjustment mechanism through the error correction approach and analyzes the causal relationship among variables. The method used is secondary data analysis with a quantitative correlational approach. The model applied is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) based on time series data for the period 2014–2024, processed using EViews 12. The results show that in the long run, inflation has a negative and significant effect on economic growth, with a coefficient value of –0.421 and t-statistic 3.12 > t-table 2.06 at a 5% significance level. Unemployment also has a negative but insignificant effect with a coefficient of –0.178 (t-statistic 1.44 < t-table), while poverty shows no significant effect with a coefficient of –0.095 (t-statistic 1.12 < t-table). In the short run, no significant effect of the three variables on economic growth is found. The error correction term (ECT) value of –0.639 is significant at the 5% level, indicating an adjustment process toward long-run equilibrium. The Granger causality analysis also indicates a bidirectional relationship between inflation and economic growth. These findings emphasize that inflation is a key variable that must be controlled to maintain economic stability and foster long-term growth. Meanwhile, poverty alleviation and unemployment reduction policies need to be strengthened in order to have a more tangible impact on achieving sustainable economic growth.
Co-Authors Ade Idzhar Agisna, Muhamad Agus Irawan Agus Sunardi Agustin, Nungki Ahmad Adrian Hanafiyah Ahmad Fatoni Ahmad, Rizqy Amelia Ramadhaniyah Amsilah, Amsilah Anggriawan, Muhammad Angga Anisa Kusumawardani Anisa, Aan Anti Wulan Agustini Anton April Laksana April Laksana Ardiyansah, Ardiyansah Aryati Aryati Aslami, Iron Fajrul Ayu Nuryani Azhar, Intan Nabila Aziza, Pretty Failasufa Basudewa, Meisya Diazzahra Putri Basuki Rakhim Setya Permana Billy Tejaarief Budiman, Dedi Cahya, Kamilah Darsono Darsono Denardo, Denardo Denisa Fitriya 'Uzzahra ENCEP SAEFULLAH, ENCEP Farida, Gina Faturohman Faturohman, Faturohman Fernando, Iqbal Furtasan Ali Yusuf Gagah Dwiki Putra Aryono Gina Farida Hadi Kurniawanto Harsiti Harsiti, Harsiti Hidayat, Asep Munir Hilman, Mohamad Indri Yani, Indri Intan Indria Dewi Intan Indria Dewi Irwan Sukmawan Irwan Sukmawan Irwan Sukmawan Khaerudin, Dedy Krahara, Yuwan Ditra Listiani, Mira Listiawati Listiawati Maharani, Adella Miftahul Huda Muhammad Angga Anggriawan Mulia, Okvin Mulyani Mulyani Munawaroh Munawaroh Munggaran, Rebion Raga Musa, Muhajir Nurhikmat, Mira Nuriyah, Nuriyah Pramitasari, Anisa Pramono, Abdul Chatim Qotrun Nada, Zanuba Ramadhan, Alfa Riaz Muhammad Khatami Riska Ferdiana Riska Ferdiana Rizki Hidayatullah Rizki Hidayatullah Rozikin, Imam Rudianto Rudianto Sagina, Yunica Marsha Saputri, Desti Sari Ningsih Septiyani, Rini Dwi Setyawati, Kiki Sihotang, Erika Agustiani Siti Hartati Sukmawan, Irwan Tata Rustandi Tejaarief, Billy Udin Suadma