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All Journal Media Statistika Jurnal Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya (Jurnal MSA) Journal of Natural Science and Integration JURNAL EKSAKTA PENDIDIKAN (JEP) Eksakta : Berkala Ilmiah Bidang MIPA Imajiner: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Pelita Eksakta Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Leibniz: Jurnal Matematika Journal of Mathematics UNP UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Yenni Kurniawati
Jurusan Matematika, FMIPA Universitas Negeri Padang
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Astronomy Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Physics Social Sciences Other

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Using Statistical Software in Analyzing Educational Data: A Community Service to Mathematics Teacher’s in 50 Kota Regency Amalita, Nonong; Kurniawati, Yenni; Fitria, Dina
Pelita Eksakta Vol 1 No 2 (2018): Pelita Eksakta Vol. 1 No. 2
Publisher : Fakultas MIPA Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/pelitaeksakta/vol1-iss02/34

Abstract

Analyzing data using statistical software is an interesting work. Many teachers in 50 Kota regency lack of it. Given a workshop on data analysis using statistical software. There is increasing ability of teachers in analyzing data using simple statistical software. They are able to organize their data on education, i.e result of exam
Vector Autoregressive Exogenous Modelling to Forecast Rice Prices Based on Inflation and Rice Production in West Sumatra Province Khairisa Putri, Nadya; Kurniawati, Yenni; Vionanda, Dodi; Martha, Zamahsary
Jurnal MSA (Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya) Vol 14 No 1 (2026): VOLUME 14 No 1, 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Alauddin Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24252/msa.v14i1.66522

Abstract

Rice prices in West Sumatra Province tend to be high despite high production levels, making forecasting essential to support food security. This study aims to forecast rice prices in traditional and modern markets using a Vector Autoregressive with Exogenous Variables (VARX) model, incorporating inflation and rice production as exogenous variables. The data used consists of monthly secondary data covering the period from January 2019 to December 2024, sourced from PIHPS and the West Sumatra Provincial Statistics Agency. The analysis includes the Augmented Dickey-Fuller stationarity test, determination of the optimal lag based on the Akaike Information Criterion, parameter estimation using Ordinary Least Squares, as well as tests of stability, parameter significance, and residual diagnostics. Forecast performance is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results show that the VARX (3,3) model is the best, with an MAPE of 1.95\% for traditional markets and 1.56\% for modern markets, indicating very high forecasting accuracy. This study demonstrates that incorporating external factors into the VARX model improves rice price forecasting accuracy, providing a basis for the government to formulate policies to maintain food price stability in West Sumatra Province.
Co-Authors Aditya, Muhammad Fadhil Aditya Admi Salma Afifa Lufti Insani AL Rezki Ivansyah Alya Aufa, Wafiq Amelia Susrifalah Anang Kurnia Anggara, Rudi Anggi Adrian Danis Anita Fadila Anjelisni, Nining Annisa Ramadhani Aprotama, Celsy Ardhi, Sonia Ardiyatul Putri Arnellis Arnellis arrahmi, nailul Atus Amadi Putra Aulia Wanda Aulia, Yuke Aurumnisva Faturrahmi Baehaqi Berliana Nofriadi Bimbim Oktaviandi Celsy Aprotama Chairina Wirdiastuti Cindy Caterine Yolanda Darwas Deska Warita Devi Yopita Sipayung Dewi Murni Dina Fitria Dina Fitria Dina Fitria, Dina Disti Harlin Diva Aliyah Dodi Vionanda Dony Permana Dwi Sulistiowati, Dwi Elfiani Sarian Bur Elfin Innaka Hamidah Elza Vinora Eujenniatul Jannah Fadhil Irsyad, Muhammad Fadhilah Fitri Fahmi Amri, Fahmi Fashihullisan Fayyadh Ghaly Fayza Annisa Febrianti Febiola Putri, Febi Fitri, Fadhilah Fitri, Fitri Hayati fitri, silfia wisa Ghaly, Fayyadh Hadiyanti Riskha harelvi, dhea afrila Harpidna, Riska Harpidna Hary Merdeka Helma Helma Helma Helma Hendrawan, Muhammad Ihsan Dermawan Irwan Irwan Khairani, Putri Rahmatun Khairisa Putri, Nadya Kusman Sadik Lutfian Almash M Fathoni Arnas Manja Danova Putri Marvero, Andre Maya Ifra Shobia Meira Parma Dewi Minora Longgom Nasution Muhammad Arief Rivano Mukhti, Tessy Octavia NA Mentacem Natasya Dwi Ovalingga, natasyalinggaa Nofriadi, Berliana Nonong Amalita Oktaviani, Bernadita Permana, Dony permana, yazid Prida Nova Sari Putra, Dio Afdal Putri Yeni, Dicha Putri, Fadhira Vitasha Rahma, Dzakyyah rahmad revi fadillah Revina Rahmadani Rizki Amalia, Annisa Rizkiah, Niswatul Ronald Rinaldo Rosa Salsabila Azarine Salma, Admi Salsabilla Khairani Sasmita, Riza Sepniza Nasywa Septrina Kiki Arisandi Silvia Triana Siskha Maulana Basrul Siti Nurhaliza Sondriva, Wilia SRI RAHAYU Sri Wahyuni Susrifalah, Amelia Syafriandi Syafriandi Syafriandi Syafriandi Tessy Octavia Mukhti Tsani, Nahda Maesya Wimmi Sartika Windi Dwi Saputra Wita, Wita Resfi Ananta Yunistika Ilanda Zahrani Asyati Zulika Zamahsary Martha Zilrahmi, Zilrahmi