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COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FUZZY TIME SERIES MARKOV CHAIN AND FUZZY TIME SERIES CHENG MODELS IN INFLATION PREDICTION KUDUS REGENCY Mursidah; Findasari; Ade Ima Afifa Himayati
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 14 No. 02 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/mathunesa.v14n02.p244-252

Abstract

Inflation is one of the important economic indicators that reflects price stability and people's purchasing power. Unpredictable inflation fluctuations require accurate forecasting methods to support planning and policy-making, especially at the regional level. This study aims to compare the performance of Markov Chain Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) and Cheng FTS in predicting inflation in Kudus Regency and to determine the most effective and efficient model. The data used is monthly inflation data for Kudus Regency, which is analyzed through the stages of determining the universe of discourse, interval formation, fuzzification, fuzzy logic relationship formation, and defuzzification. The accuracy level of the model is evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results showed that the Markov Chain FTS model performed better than the Cheng FTS model. The Markov Chain FTS produced an MAE value of 0.1811 and an RMSE of 0.2371, which were smaller than those of the Cheng FTS, which produced an MAE of 0.2659 and an RMSE of 0.3656. This advantage is due to the Markov Chain FTS's ability to utilize transition adjustments between states, making it more adaptive to data dynamics. Thus, it can be concluded that the Markov Chain FTS is the most effective and efficient model for predicting inflation in Kudus Regency. Keywords: Fluctuations, Fuzzy Time Series, Markov chain, MAE, RMSE.
Application of the Greedy Algorithm for Graph Coloring of the Grobogan Regency Map: Application of the Greedy Algorithm for Graph Coloring of the Grobogan Regency Map Ade Ima Afifa Himayati; Muhammad Adib Jauhari Dwi Putra; Erik Maurten Firdaus; Muhammad Faudzi Bahari
Eigen Mathematics Journal Vol. 5 No. 2 Desember 2022
Publisher : University of Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/emj.v5i2.149

Abstract

The district map in Grobogan Regency can be optimized using the Greedy algorithm. The point on the graph represents the district and the line represents two areas that are directly adjacent. Greedy Algorithm is one of the algorithms developed to solve the problem of graph coloring to be able to produce minimal colors that are used without having the same color in areas that are directly adjacent. Greedy’s algorithm uses a set of color candidates and solutions in its solution. Staining is done at the point with the greatest degree followed by an examination of the appropriateness of the color with the principle that no neighboring points have the same color. The resulting color is included in the solution set. The process is continued until all the dots have been colored. Regional coloring in Grobogan district produces four colors with a greedy algorithm as the minimum color solution obtained