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All Journal Jurnal Karya Pendidikan Matematika AKSIOMA: Jurnal Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika Jurnal Matematika Sains dan Teknologi JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) JURNAL PENDIDIKAN TAMBUSAI Saintifik : Jurnal Matematika, Sains, dan Pembelajarannya Psychology, Evaluation, and Technology in Educational Research EIGEN MATHEMATICS JOURNAL Indonesian Journal of Education and Mathematical Science Square : Journal of Mathematics and Mathematics Education InPrime: Indonesian Journal Of Pure And Applied Mathematics Jurnal Teknik Industri Terintegrasi (JUTIN) Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi FARABI: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Mejuajua MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Journal of Fundamental Mathematics and Applications (JFMA) Jurnal Teknologi dan Manajemen Industri Terapan Journal Industrial Engineering and Management (JUST-ME) Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Business Journal of Mandalika Literature JURNAL ILMIAH TEKNIK INDUSTRI DAN INOVASI (JISI) Journal of Engineering and Science Application Jurnal Abdimas Indonesia Jurnal Ilmu Komputer dan Matematika
Ade Ima Afifa Himayati
Universitas Muhammadiyah Kudus
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Modeling Outpatient Visits Using Poisson and Negative Binomial Regression at Sarkies Aisyiyah Kudus Hospital Nur Hakimah; Ade Ima Afifa Himayati; Findasari Findasari
Journal of Engineering and Science Application Vol. 3 No. 2 (2026): Mei-Oktober
Publisher : Institute Of Advanced Knowledge and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.69693/jesa.v3i2.50

Abstract

Outpatient visits are an important indicator of healthcare service utilization and play a significant role in hospital service planning and resource management. This study aims to model the number of outpatient visits at Sarkies Aisyiyah Kudus Hospital using Poisson and Negative Binomial regression and to identify the factors influencing outpatient visits. This study used secondary data consisting of 41 daily observations from November 1 to December 12, 2025. The response variable was the daily number of outpatient visits, while the predictor variables were the number of BPJS patients, the number of operating clinics, and the number of doctors on duty. Data analysis was performed using RStudio. The results showed that all three predictor variables had a positive relationship with outpatient visits in the Poisson regression model. However, the overdispersion test produced a dispersion value of 10.04, indicating that the Poisson assumption of equidispersion was not satisfied. The Negative Binomial regression model showed that the number of BPJS patients and the number of clinics had a positive and significant effect on outpatient visits, while the number of doctors had a positive but non-significant effect. The Negative Binomial model provided a better fit, with an AIC of 435.58, compared with 673.48 for the Poisson model. Therefore, the Negative Binomial regression model was selected as the more appropriate model for outpatient visit data at Sarkies Aisyiyah Kudus Hospital.
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FUZZY TIME SERIES MARKOV CHAIN AND FUZZY TIME SERIES CHENG MODELS IN INFLATION PREDICTION KUDUS REGENCY Mursidah; Findasari; Ade Ima Afifa Himayati
MATHunesa: Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol. 14 No. 02 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/mathunesa.v14n02.p244-252

Abstract

Inflation is one of the important economic indicators that reflects price stability and people's purchasing power. Unpredictable inflation fluctuations require accurate forecasting methods to support planning and policy-making, especially at the regional level. This study aims to compare the performance of Markov Chain Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) and Cheng FTS in predicting inflation in Kudus Regency and to determine the most effective and efficient model. The data used is monthly inflation data for Kudus Regency, which is analyzed through the stages of determining the universe of discourse, interval formation, fuzzification, fuzzy logic relationship formation, and defuzzification. The accuracy level of the model is evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The results showed that the Markov Chain FTS model performed better than the Cheng FTS model. The Markov Chain FTS produced an MAE value of 0.1811 and an RMSE of 0.2371, which were smaller than those of the Cheng FTS, which produced an MAE of 0.2659 and an RMSE of 0.3656. This advantage is due to the Markov Chain FTS's ability to utilize transition adjustments between states, making it more adaptive to data dynamics. Thus, it can be concluded that the Markov Chain FTS is the most effective and efficient model for predicting inflation in Kudus Regency. Keywords: Fluctuations, Fuzzy Time Series, Markov chain, MAE, RMSE.
Co-Authors Achmad Ridwan Achmad Ridwan, Achmad Adriyan Yudhistira Agung Prihandono Alif Miftachul Nasikhah Alisa Apriliani Arlinwibowo, Janu Avira Budianita Azma Rosyida Cikita Berlian Hakim Dhina Cahya Rohim Dina Amalia Fitri Dwi Putra, M. Adib Jauhari Edi Wibowo Suwandi Erik Maurten Firdaus Fathimah Isnina Fatima, Gupita Nadindra Fida Maisa Hana Fifi Endah Irawati Findasari Findasari Findasari Findasari Findasari Harjanti, Agustina Eka Ika Tristanti Ika Tristanti Ilma Nur Hikmah Intan Meila Putri Pertiwi Irma Sari Rahmawati Ivanna Isty Nursani Janu Arlinwibowo Jeki Purnomo Khoiroh Alfiana Khoiroh Alfiana Khoiroh Alfiana, Khoiroh Khoirun Nisak Syifana Lillah, Sabbaha Sinai M. Adib Jauhari Dwi Putra Manggalastawa Manggalastawa Manggalastawa, Manggalastawa Maryatin Maryatin Milad Naufal Akbar Moh Aris Prasetiyanto Muadzah Muadzah Muh Latholiful Minan Muhammad Adib Jauhari Dwi Putra Muhammad Adib Jauhari Dwi Putra Muhammad Aris Prasetyo Muhammad Faudzi Bahari Muhammad Faudzi Bahari Mursidah Mursidah Nuaf Maulana Nugroho Nugraha, Yoga Awalludin Nunung Agus Firmansyah Nunung Agus Firmansyah Nur Alisa Nur Hakimah Nursani, Ivanna Isty Putri Ameliatussholichah Rifqi Azwar Annas Rosita, Melvin Dewi Rosyida, Azma Saharani, Safira Sakna Binta Munaya Sari, Mita Puspita Sofiarini, Ida Ulil Albab Utami, Risqi Widya Cholid Wahyudin Yeni Zakiyatul Ibriyah Yulisetyaningrum Yunita Nur Afifah Yunus Mustaqim Yunus Mustaqim, Yunus Zulfa Laila Khoirun Nisa