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Journal : AGROMIX

Volatilitas harga pangan pokok di pasar global sebagai dampak pandemi COVID-19 dan resesi ekonomi dunia Prasmita Dian Wijayati; Dona Laily; Dita Atasa

Publisher : Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Yudharta Pasuruan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1083.265 KB) | DOI: 10.35891/agx.v13i1.2874

Abstract

Introduction: Most food commodity prices on the world market increased drastically in late 2006 to mid 2008. The increase in food prices in 2008 was triggered by the global crisis. In 2020, the world is facing a global recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. This study aims to examine the impact of the global recession on the prices of several food commodities in the global market. Methods: Analysis of food price volatility in global markets using secondary time series data on monthly staple food prices for the period January 1960 to December 2020 (720 time series). This study analyzes the volatility of staple food prices using the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH) model Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH). Results: The results showed that most food commodity prices had high volatility during the 1973 crisis and 2008 crisis. However, food prices were not too affected by the 2020 global recession. Volatility analysis was conducted to determine the movement of food commodity prices during the crisis and recession. Secondary data obtained from the World Bank's Pink Sheet Data were used in this study. The nature of the data is a monthly time series from January 1960 to December 2020. The volatility analysis is estimated using the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and ARCH-GARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) models. Conclusion: the results of the study indicate that most food commodity prices have high volatility during the 1973 crisis and 2008 crisis. However, food prices are not too affected by the 2020 global recession.
Comparison of crude oil price transmission to food commodities for biofuel source and non-biofuel source Wijayati, Prasmita Dian; Rachmadhan, Aditya Arief; Rizkiyah, Noor

Publisher : Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Yudharta Pasuruan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35891/agx.v15i2.4429

Abstract

Introduction: World crude oil prices are linked to food commodity prices as input costs for the production distribution and development of biofuels. The relationship between increasing crude oil prices and food prices is in one way; i.e. an increase in world crude oil prices will trigger an increase in food prices and not the other way around. This study aimed to analyze and compare price transmission and integration of cross-commodity prices between the price of crude oil and the price of corn (raw material for biofuels) and the price of rice (non biofuels raw material). Methods: This study used the VARX (Vector Autoregression with Exogenous variables) method with corn prices and rice prices as the endogenous variables, while crude oil prices as exogenous variables. Results: Price transmission and integration of cross-commodity prices occur in crude oil to corn commodities. In contrast, there was no price transmission and price integration between crude oil and rice. Commodities that are directly related to the development of biofuels experience a more significant impact on price changes. Conclusion: Energy commodity prices are connected to food commodity prices, particularly corn. Therefore, if crude oil price rises, so does the corn. Highly dependent corn-importing countries have to be aware. Measures engendering food security are key to any country, particularly promoting domestic production and improving food storage and distribution systems to reduce the risk of food price spikes. The policy implications emerging from the one-directional causality between oil and food prices would typically depend on the specific nature of the two markets and the goals of policy intervention.
Comparison of crude oil price transmission to food commodities for biofuel source and non-biofuel source Wijayati, Prasmita Dian; Rachmadhan, Aditya Arief; Rizkiyah, Noor
AGROMIX Vol 15 No 2 (2024)
Publisher : Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Yudharta Pasuruan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35891/agx.v15i2.4429

Abstract

Introduction: World crude oil prices are linked to food commodity prices as input costs for the production distribution and development of biofuels. The relationship between increasing crude oil prices and food prices is in one way; i.e. an increase in world crude oil prices will trigger an increase in food prices and not the other way around. This study aimed to analyze and compare price transmission and integration of cross-commodity prices between the price of crude oil and the price of corn (raw material for biofuels) and the price of rice (non biofuels raw material). Methods: This study used the VARX (Vector Autoregression with Exogenous variables) method with corn prices and rice prices as the endogenous variables, while crude oil prices as exogenous variables. Results: Price transmission and integration of cross-commodity prices occur in crude oil to corn commodities. In contrast, there was no price transmission and price integration between crude oil and rice. Commodities that are directly related to the development of biofuels experience a more significant impact on price changes. Conclusion: Energy commodity prices are connected to food commodity prices, particularly corn. Therefore, if crude oil price rises, so does the corn. Highly dependent corn-importing countries have to be aware. Measures engendering food security are key to any country, particularly promoting domestic production and improving food storage and distribution systems to reduce the risk of food price spikes. The policy implications emerging from the one-directional causality between oil and food prices would typically depend on the specific nature of the two markets and the goals of policy intervention.
Co-Authors ., Harianto A.P, Caesariano Abdilah, Fikri Rizki Achmad Suryana Adelia Kharisma Putri Raharjo Adelia, Kezia Adinda Meitha Putri Mardhiyani Adinda Nurul Izmi Alda, Irine Selviana Alfiani, Fina Amalia, Sri Hidayati Amir, Indra Tjahaja Ananda Nabila Laraswari Andarwulan, Setiana Annisa Lulu Arfiana Dita Arum Sari Arief, Aditya Arman, Hilman Hasibur Rohman Arum Sari, Arfiana Dita Arum, Dewi Puspa Aslam, Saufan Asri, Dian Bagus Indra Kurniawan Budiarto, Fadia Nur Rahma Dini Hiqmatul Hayati Dita Atasa Dona Laily Dona Wahyuning Laily Fachrani, Dhewintha Kusuma Fadhilah, Sulthan Auliya' Zhafran Fatima Azrina Pramesthi Fatmawati Fatmawati Framono, Indra Dwi Hamidah Hendrarini Hardani, Prisma Trida Hariputra, Akbar Hasyim, Alwi Fu'ad Indah, Pawana Nur Ines Paramithasari Intan Ayu Kusuma Pramushinta K Amelia Kurniasari Kusuma, Mani’atul Fitan Lainatussifa Laksmi Diana Lestari, Renita Dwi M. Nushron Ali Mukhtar Maharani, Clara Sita Manihuruk, Ekamonika Maulidiyah, Zahro Al Mubarokah Mubarokah Mufidah, Rofikatul Muhammad Rifqi Abroor Mukti, Asri Wido Mukti, Ria Andriani Nadya Ambarwati Naila Nadhifa Qotrunnada Nanda Kusuma Melati Nanda Kusuma Melati Ningrum, Anisa Sulistya Nitriana Kridha Kirana Noor Rizkiyah Nuriah Yuliati Nurul N Purbosari, Ira Putri, Isma’ Arifatul Rahma Qalsum, Ummy Rachmadhan, Aditya Arief Rahayu, Asti Raihan Bimo Lazuardi Raihan Bimo Lazuardi Ramadhani, Mirza Ratnawati, Ema Rina Agustina Roniati, Fitri Sania Fitria Rahmah Saputri, Hanggita Adwaa Sari, Dewi Perwito Sari, Putri Nurmalita Setyaningtyas, Megawati Mahardika Rizky Sinulingga, Amanda Safithri Siti Fadhilah NurrahMawati Soedarto, Teguh Sri Tjondro Winarno, Sri Tjondro Sri Widayanti SRI WIDAYANTI Stevi Putri Adolvina Baik Sundusia, Leyna Susanti, Amilia Syarif Imam Hidayat TATANG SOPANDI Thiang Makrifat Usamah Abdul Haq Vanya Agita Sari Wiharsono, Surya Duta Wisnu Okta Mahendra Yahya, Azriel Yasintya, Dwi Meilani Yogananta, Refo