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Arisman Adnan
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Modeling Cointegrated Nonstationary Air Pollution Data: A Forecasting Study of NO₂ and SO₂ in Indonesia (1950–2022) Adnan, Arisman; Erda, Gustriza; Wamiliana; Russel, Edwin
Science and Technology Indonesia Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026): January
Publisher : Research Center of Inorganic Materials and Coordination Complexes, FMIPA Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26554/sti.2026.11.1.161-173

Abstract

 Air pollution from nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) poses serious threats to human respiratory health and contributes to environmental degradation through acid rain formation. In Indonesia, despite rapid industrialization and increasing emissions, studies examining the interrelated dynamics between NO2 and SO2 at the national level remain limited, with most research focusing only on provincial areas and short time periods. This study fills this gap by analyzing the dynamic relationship between NO2 and SO2 using comprehensive national-level time series data from 1950 to 2022. The analysis examines short-term adjustments, long-term equilibrium patterns, directional causality, and shock responses between the two pollutants. The analysis focuses on identifying the best statistical model to capture the interaction between the two variables. Granger causality tests, impulse response functions (IRFs), and forecast error variance decomposition are applied to examine causal links and response dynamics. The data exhibits nonstationary but cointegrated with rank r=1, indicating a long-run equilibrium correlation between two pollutants. Consequently, the Vector Error Correction Model, VECM(4), is selected as the most appropriate model. The study also provides 10-year forecasts for both pollutants insights into potential future air pollution trends in Indonesia, with NO2 rising from 5.29 to 8.09 million tons and SO2 from3.38 to 5.10 million tons, underscoring the urgent need for integrated emission control policies that address both pollutants simultaneously rather than in isolation.
Co-Authors ', Firdaus Abdul Somad Batubara Afrianto Daud Agus Ika Putra Agus Kurniawati Ahmad Fadli Ahmad Jamaan Alika, Elsa Riesta Amun Amri Anne Mudya Yolanda Asri Elvita Atma Murni Aulia, Felia Rizki Ayu Agustiani Azhari Setiawan Azra Aulia Dwiputri Bustami Bustami Defrinaldi Absari Deni Rizaldi Devri Maulana Divo Dharma Silalahi Ecelly Indriani Putri Elfaki, Faiz AM Endah Dwi Jayanti Enno Yuniarto Fatayat Feblil Huda Febrianti, Lusi Ferdian Fadly Fikri Marwansyah Firdaus ' Fitra Lestari Goldameir, Noor Ell Gumanti, Gumanti Gustriza Erda Haposan Sirait Haposan Sirait Harison ' Harison Harison Heru Angrianto Ibnu Daqiqil ID Icha Yulia Ilyas Husti Indra, Zul Irfansyah Irfansyah Isnaini ' Isti Yuliani Iswadi HR Iwantono Iwan Barnawi Jusman, Yessi K Khairat Kesi Marseliani Khairat, K Khairunnisa, Siska Khairunnissa, Khairunnissa Khusnal Marzuqo Lindrianasari Liza Yarmanita Mardiyah Muhgni Maria Erna Mayangsari Mayangsari Mirza Hardian Mohammad Saeri Muhammad Saeri, Muhammad Mustofa Usman Nabilah Fitriyyah Delfira Nike Syelfina Noor Ell Goldameir Nurhayati, Nurhayati Nurqolbi, Leliyana Ody Azis Saputra Okta Bella Syuhada Putri Sion Cahayana Putri Susanti Rahmad Kurniawan Rahmad Ramadhan Laska Rahwana Saputra Raudatul Yusra Ridho Tri Mulya Riko Febrian Rini, Ari Sulistyo Riski Rahmadani Rosma, Iswadi Hasyim Russel, Edwin Rustam Efendi Rustam Efendi S. Siswanto S. Siswanto Satibi, Syawal Sehatta Saragih Sibuea, Nuraini Sigit Sugiarto Sillaturahim Sirait, Tesa Theresia Siska Yuliati Soewignjo Agus Nugroho Sukma Novia Syafitri Sukoco Sukoco Sul Kantri Rahma Wanti Sunarno Syamsu Herman Syamsu Herman Syamsudhuha Syamsudhuha T, Masrina Munawarah Tengku Irfan Wira Buana Tira Mei Darnis Titi Solfitri Tuti Alawiyah Wamiliana Windy Lasma Sari Purba Windy Maya Sari Wirda Hia Yenita Roza Yennita Y Zul Indra